The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There’s a four-game early slate at 12:35 pm ET and a six-game main slate at 7:05pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel, headlined by Mets righty Jacob deGrom.
deGrom is the only one of these studs in the early slate on FanDuel (the Dodgers/Arizona game is included in the DraftKings early slate), which should make him especially chalky despite a tough matchup against a Reds squad that ranks eighth with a .329 team wOBA. He has a mediocre opponent implied total of 4.2 runs, and he’s only a moderate favorite with -133 moneyline odds. That said, he has a ton of upside, as evidenced by his large 8.5 K Prediction; the Reds’ projected lineup leads the slate with a .274 SO/AB rate. Further, deGrom’s recent Statcast data suggests he’s in solid form: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 192 feet, a fly ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. He’s an especially valuable play on FanDuel, where his reasonable $10,300 salary comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Madison Bumgarner and Gio Gonzalez are the high-priced options in the main slate, but their Vegas data leaves a lot to be desired.
- Bumgarner: 3.7 opponent implied run total, -110 moneyline odds
- Gonzalez: 4.4 opponent implied run total, +103 moneyline odds
Bumgarner does have the best opponent implied run total of the slate, but he’s barely a favorite. Per the MLB Trends tool, players with similar Vegas data have offered just a little value . . .
. . . and if we add a filter to look specifically at players in Bumgarner’s salary range, the trend turns negative:
With great salaries comes great responsibility, or something like that. What’s even more concerning about Bum is his recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 212 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 42 percent, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. He’s been fine in terms of fantasy points in those starts, scoring a combined 80 FanDuel points against the Diamondbacks and Phillies, but his poor -57 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests negative regression could be coming.
Gio, on the other hand, has excellent recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 197 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 36 percent, and a hard hit rate of 19 percent. He and Bumgarner lead all main slate pitchers with an average pitch count of 112 over the past two weeks, and he has absolutely smashed of late, posting a +9.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
The Brewers are a boom-or-bust matchup, and while he does bring risk in terms of his Vegas data, he also brings strikeout upside; Milwaukee ranks first in the league this season with a 25.9 percent strikeout rate. They’re even worse against lefties, averaging a 26.4 percent K rate. Bumgarner could have higher ownership given his superior opponent implied run total, which makes Gio intriguing in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use Bumgarner, Gio, and all other pitchers by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard. Ownership rates across GPPs of various buy-in levels will also be available via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Kyle Hendricks has easily the best Vegas data of the day: He’s a massive -213 moneyline favorite against the Atlanta Braves, who opened at an implication of just 3.0 runs. Hendricks has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, including a 49.0-point FanDuel outing last start against the Phillies. He’s given up two home runs over his last two games and has a high average batted ball distance allowed of 226 feet during that span. However, the rest of his recent Statcast data is fine: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 23 percent. He’s limited hard contact outside of the home runs, and he faces a projected Braves lineup with a slate-worst .308 combined wOBA. He doesn’t have a massive K Prediction (6.4), but he’s still worth pursuing given that Vegas data. Per the Trends tool, similar pitchers have crushed value:
If you want to dip lower in price, Hendricks’ opposing pitcher, Sean Newcomb, leads the slate with a 7.9 K Prediction against the Cubs and is only $6,000 on DraftKings, where he comes with a huge 87 percent Bargain Rating. He does have concerning Vegas data — he’s a +195 dog and the Cubs are implied for 4.5 runs — but, again, he has large upside and costs $6,000; that’s all anyone can ask of a GPP-only pitcher. He does have solid recent Statcast data, which suggests he may not get shelled immediately and could stay in long enough to rack up strikeouts: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 197 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard hit rate of 34 percent on an average of 96 pitches. If he approaches 100 again, he could be a force in tournaments.
Fastball
Collin McHugh: He went for 28.5 DraftKings points in his last start and actually owns the best Vegas data of all early-slate pitchers, including deGrom and the pitchers from the Arizona/Dodgers game. He faces a Texas squad currently implied for 4.1 runs, and he’s a slate-high favorite with -175 moneyline odds. At $8,400 on DraftKings, he could be a worthy SP2 candidate along with deGrom.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) in the early slate currently belongs to the Houston Astros:
They face Texas righty Nick Martinez, who has allowed a whopping eight home runs across his last four starts, although that spans about two months. His recent Statcast data includes only his most recent start, but it’s in line with that production: He allowed a batted ball distance of 240 feet and a fly ball rate of 47 percent. That’s dangerous against a Houston squad that ranks first in the league with a huge .201 team ISO. Alex Bregman is the model’s highest-rated hitter, and he brings a .218 ISO against righties from the projected No. 2 spot in the order.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Blue Jays face Baltimore righty Jeremy Hellickson, who owns the slate’s highest HR/9 mark at 1.544. He’s been especially bad of late, allowing a ridiculous seven home runs across his last three starts, including five in a single game against the LA Angels. As you might expect, his recent Statcast data isn’t great: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 227 feet and a fly ball rate of 51 percent. This stack dips down to projected No. 7 hitter Miguel Montero, who has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a -2.16 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus . . .
. . . despite owning recent Statcast data that is some of the best in the league: Over his last nine games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 273 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 52 percent, and a hard hit rate of 52 percent. Positive regression could be coming soon for Montero.
Batters
Another guy who has been unlucky lately is Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, who has averaged a disappointing +0.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. That’s not awful, but it’s not in line with his recent Statcast data: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 54 percent. His resulting +40 Recent Batted Ball Luck is one of the higher marks in the slate, and he’s on the positive side of his splits today against righty Marco Estrada.
Giancarlo Stanton is a monster against left-handed pitchers, but he’s also much higher-owned on average:
And while he has negative splits against righties, it’s not as if he’s a bad hitter against them: His .408 wOBA and .349 ISO still rank as top-five marks. His ISO, in fact, is the top mark on the slate, and he’s .108 points better against lefties. That’s pretty ridiculous. He’s still projected for a high 9-12 percent ownership rate — and it probably will get higher considering the Marlins are second on the main slate with 5.3 implied runs — but his ownership at least won’t be as unreasonable as it is when he faces a lefty.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
