This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
The Steelers have been contenders for the better part of the Super Bowl era, but it’s been six long years since they’ve last had a chance to play for the Lombardi Trophy. Last season’s squad squeaked into the playoffs courtesy of a clutch Week 16 Antonio Brown touchdown against the Ravens, and they eventually rode Le’Veon Bell to two road playoff wins. Their quest ended in New England, with Bell touching the ball only six times due to a groin injury that required offseason surgery. The goal for the 2017 Steelers is the same it’s been for the last 15 years: Win the whole damn thing.
Play-Calling Tendencies
Head coach Mike Tomlin got his start as wide receivers coach at Virginia Military Institute in 1995 and proceeded to bounce around low-level Division I schools for the better part of his 20s. After coaching defensive backs at the University of Cincinnati from 1999-2000, Tomlin took the same role with Tony Dungy’s staff in Tampa Bay. There he learned the ins-and-outs of the Tampa 2 defense from legendary defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.
Although Tomlin didn’t exactly influence the Buccaneers’ scheme all that much, he was good enough to survive a coaching change and served as Jon Gruden’s defensive backs coach until 2005. Finally, Tomlin worked as defensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings in 2006, improving the defense from 19th to 14th in scoring. Naturally, he installed the Tampa 2 defense and leaned on safety Darren Sharper — at that time the hardest-hitting safety in the league. The Vikings went 6-10, but Tomlin was selected to succeed Bill Cowher to become the Steelers’ third head coach since 1969.
Tomlin didn’t get a say in who his coordinators would be after becoming the head coach in 2007. Bruce Arians was promoted from wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator, and Dick LeBeau and his tried-and-true 3-4 defense were there to stay. Tomlin was brought in as a ‘player’s coach,’ which is basically an excuse for not having much influence on his team’s schemes. To be fair, there wasn’t much to change about the defense considering they were coming off three-consecutive seasons as a top-11 unit in both yards and points allowed.
The Steelers made the playoffs during Tomlin’s first season as head coach, although they fell to the David Garrard-led Jaguars in Pittsburgh during the first round. Tomlin didn’t have any trouble taking care of business during his second season as head coach, riding a 12-4 regular season to a Super Bowl victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
Since then, the Steelers have lost one Super Bowl — to the Packers in 2011 — and fell short to the Patriots in the 2016 AFC championship game. The offense has consistently done a great job utilizing the talent at its disposal, and Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” mentality has never truly left the team. Current offensive coordinator Todd Haley helped orchestrate Kurt Warner’s 2007-2008 resurrection as the Cardinals’ offensive coordinator and has helped Roethlisberger to rank among the league’s top-eight quarterbacks in average target distance during each of the past two seasons. Consistency has been a staple of the Steelers for centuries, and the 3-4 defense continues to live on through current defensive coordinator Keith Butler, who was promoted after serving as the team’s linebackers coach since 2003.
The Steelers have ranked in the top-10 in both points and yards per game during Haley’s last three seasons as offensive coordinator. They leaned on the run last season, though the early production from Williams, followed by a full season from Bell and no semblance of a No. 2 wide receiver, certainly played a role in this. The Steelers haven’t finished lower than 13th in pass/run ratio during Haley’s first four seasons. They’ve taken their time on offense, never finishing higher than 15th in neutral pace. Expect the Steelers offense to potentially lean more on the passing game with a fully healthy unit this season, but Bell will undoubtedly get plenty of work in what could potentially be his final season in Pittsburgh.
2017 Roster
The 2017 Steelers return almost their entire offense from a season ago – with some new but familiar playmakers:
- QB: Ben Roethlisberger/Landry Jones
- RB: Le’Veon Bell/DeAngelo Williams –> Bell/Fitzgerald Toussaint/James Conner
- WR: Antonio Brown
- WR: Cobi Hamilton/Sammie Coates/Darrius Heyward-Bey/Markus Wheaton –> Martavis Bryant
- WR: Eli Rogers –> Rogers/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Coates/Heyward-Bey
- TE: Jesse James/Ladarius Green –> James/Vance McDonald
- LT: Alejandro Villanueva
- LG: Ramon Foster
- C: Maurkice Pouncey
- RG: David DeCastro
- RT: Marcus Gilbert
Bell is ending his holdout imminently and will sign the franchise tag. Williams is gone after two productive seasons, and fourth-year Toussaint and promising third-round pick Conner are Bell’s backups. The offense failed to find a consistent No. 2 receiver last season, cycling through a number of options that all struggled with consistency and missed games due to injuries. Rogers figures to start as the slot receiver, although he’ll face competition from 2017 second-round pick JuJu Smith-Schuster, as well as Coates and Heyward-Bey. There’s no debate who will be on the field when the Steelers are in 2-WR sets, as Bryant is by far the most-talented receiver of the bunch and gives the team a legitimate weapon across from Brown. The team recently traded a fifth-round pick for McDonald, who will take Green’s role as the ‘theoretically-could-be-good’ vertical tight end.
The Steelers are one of just five teams to return their entire offensive line, an especially impressive feat considering the unit allowed the third-fewest hits on the quarterback last season. Overall, they ranked fourth in adjusted sack rate and second in adjusted line yards. PFF’s third-overall offensive line last season once again enters 2017 at No. 3.
The Steelers hope that some better injury luck, combined with new young talent, will help them take a step forward defensively in 2017:
- DE: Stephon Tuitt
- NT: Jason Hargrave
- DE: Cameron Heyward/Ricardo Mathews/Leterrius Walton –> Heyward
- OLB: James Harrison/Jarvis Jones –> T.J. Watt/Harrison
- MLB: Ryan Shazier/Vince Williams –> Shazier
- MLB: Lawrence Timmons –> Vince Williams
- OLB: Bud Dupree/Anthony Chickillo/Arthur Moats –> Dupree
- LCB: Ross Cockrell –> Joe Haden/Cockrell
- RCB: Artie Burns
- SCB: William Gay –> Gay/Cameron Sutton
- SS: Sean Davis
- FS: Mike Mitchell
The Steelers defensive line could make a leap if they can get more than seven games out of Heyward, PFF’s 35th-highest graded interior defender last season. Watt and Sutton were drafted in the first and third rounds to replace Gay and Harrison, now 32 and 39 years old, respectively. Timmons won’t be starting at middle linebacker for the first time in nearly a decade, but he’s 31 and was PFF’s 72nd-highest graded linebacker last season. Williams is cheaper, younger, and had a better PFF run grade than Timmons in a smaller sample size. Sutton is challenging Gay for the slot corner role, while the team recently signed ex-Browns cornerback Joe Haden to a three-year deal to push Cockrell. While Haden has struggled in recent seasons (PFF graded him as the 98th-best corner out of 119 qualifiers last season), he’s been banged up; the Steelers are able to get out of the deal within a year if they choose.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
With the loss of Julian Edelman in New England, the Steelers have a real case as the most-talented offense in the NFL entering 2017.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Roethlisberger teased retirement this offseason, but the 35 year old will return for his 14th-consecutive season as the Steelers starting quarterback. Although he always seems to be banged up, Big Ben has missed an average of just 1.5 games per season since 2013. He’s thrown for more yards in each of the past four seasons than he did in all but two of his first 10 seasons in the league, and now he will get to work with arguably the most-talented offense of his career.
Every quarterback has one weakness or another, but Roethlisberger’s inability to produce away from Heinz Field is a narrative that has reached mythical proportions over the past three seasons:
- Home (20 games): 339.9 yards, 2.9 TDs, 8.89 Y/A, 30.1 DraftKings PPG
- Away (22 games): 269.9 yards, 1.05 TDs, 7.47 Y/A, 17.1 PPG
Yes, Roethlisberger’s extreme home/away splits have rubbed off on Brown. Both players have still shown the ability to occasionally ball out on the road (especially early in the season), but overall Big Ben has thrown for 300-plus yards or three-plus touchdowns in just 32 and 18 percent of his road games, compared to 70 and 60 percent of his home games since 2014.
Just about the only thing that has made Roethlisberger bearable on the road has been the presence of Bryant. The 6’4″ 211-pound beast and his (alleged) sub-4.3-second 40-yard dash have unlocked the offense for Roethlisberger in a big way since he was drafted in 2014:
- With Bryant (19 games): 336.6 yards, 2.1 TDs, 8.39 Y/A, 25.5 DraftKings PPG
- Without (23 games): 275.7 yards, 1.8 TDs, 7.95 Y/A, 21.5 PPG
Roethlisberger led the league in pass attempts of 20-plus yards last season despite missing two games and an entire season from his No. 2 receiver. Still, this penchant for the deep ball didn’t translate to a ton of consistent value as a daily fantasy option, as Roethlisberger averaged 19.95 DraftKings points per game (PPG), a -0.41 Plus/Minus, and a 57.1 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). He continued to underwhelm against the AFC North, averaging 17.43 DraftKings PPG with a -1.57 Plus/Minus on a 9.7 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. It’s possible that sharp players this year will fade Roethlisberger on the road and against divisional opponents. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Steelers every week.
Roethlisberger is +1,600, +1,200, and +900 to lead the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and to win the MVP. Big Ben led the league in passing yards during his last 16-game campaign, and he’ll have a chance to do so again if he manages to complete a full season for just the fourth time in his career.
Landry Jones, QB
Jones averaged 4,161.5 yards and 30.8 touchdowns per year during his four seasons at Oklahoma, but he’s since played in only three full games during his four years with the Steelers. The former fourth-round pick has led the Steelers to an average of 18.7 PPG during those starts while compiling a 7/6 touchdown/interception ratio across 16 total games. Jones has demonstrated some upside, throwing for 277 yards and three touchdowns (with backups) against the Browns (kind of backups) in Week 17 of last season. It’s feasible that Landry could keep the Steelers in playoff contention if Roethlisberger were to miss time, although it seems unlikely the Steelers’ passing game would continue to function as one of the league’s best. Bell and Brown have averaged 4.7 and 12.2 fewer DraftKings PPG, respectively, in their five games without Roethlisberger over the past two seasons.
Le’Veon Bell, RB
Bell ran for over 500 yards and scored five touchdowns in just two games against this writer’s central-Ohio high school defense, and his production at Michigan State was only a bit less graphic. After averaging 958.5 total yards and 10.5 touchdowns as a freshman and sophomore, Bell exploded for 1,960 total yards and 13 touchdowns on 414 touches in just 13 games during his third-and-final collegiate season.
Bell’s speed and strength didn’t jump off the page at the combine, but his size (6’1″ 230 pounds) and agility (6.75-second 3-cone) did. Bell has started every game he’s been active since being selected in the second round of the 2013 draft. He’s averaged over 4.5 yards per carry during his first four seasons, but it’s Bell’s receiving skills that truly make him special. Bell, David Johnson, and Marshall Faulk are the only running backs to ever average at least nine PPR points per game from strictly receiving production over the course of their entire career. One half of #TeamJam’EmIn, Bell’s workload has been unparalleled, finishing with the league’s highest opportunity share in each of the past two seasons. His 47 yards after contact per game were second to only Jay Ajayi’s mark last season, and Bell evaded more tackles than literally everybody (PlayerProfiler). Bell’s matrix-like patience (league-high average of 3.09 seconds spent behind line of scrimmage per rush) and elite Steelers offensive line are a match made in heaven.
Some have worried Bell’s holdout and lack of training camp could impact his initial playing time, but we’ve already witnessed him receive 88 percent of snaps and 23 touches in his first game off suspension in 2016, and 95 percent of snaps and 26 touches in the same situation in 2015. There’s a reason Bell is holding out: His skill set allows him to simultaneously work as an elite running back and wide receiver, and he wants to be paid accordingly. Bell’s +1,600 MVP odds are the highest of all non-quarterbacks, and perhaps deservedly so. There isn’t much value behind Bell’s +300 odds to lead the league in rushing, but he has increased his rushing yards per game by an average of 13.2 yards per season during his career. A similar jump from Bell’s league-high 105.7 rushing yards per game last season, combined with his usual transcendent receiving production, could place Bell firmly in the race for both of the aforementioned awards.
Fitzgerald Toussaint, RB
Toussaint has a mixed case as Bell’s backup:
- The good: Toussaint is an 85th-percentile SPARQ-x athlete with theoretical three-down ability considering he caught 18 passes for 203 yards as a senior at Michigan.
- The bad: Toussaint’s yards per carry decreased during each of his college seasons and reached a putrid 3.5-yard average on 185 attempts during his senior season. He’s never ran for over 30 yards during his professional 25 games.
Toussaint is currently Bell’s immediate backup – arguably the most-valuable handcuff position in the league considering DeAngelo Williams’ average of 22.8 touches per game when Bell was sidelined from 2015-2016. Still, none of the Steelers running backs have stood out this preseason, and we could at least initially see a committee approach if Bell misses time.
James Conner, RB
Conner overcame Hodgkin’s lymphoma during his time at Pittsburgh, returning in 2016 to rip off 1,394 total yards and 20 touchdowns on just 237 touches. This was only slightly less productive on a per-touch basis than his ridiculous sophomore campaign (303 touches, 1,835 yards, 26 touchdowns). Conner’s 4.65 40 time isn’t great, but he’s a 6’1″ 233-pound bruiser who could handle the type of workload that’s available if something happens to Bell. While he’s not in the same stratosphere as Bell when it comes to receiving ability, he did post a season-long 21-302-4 receiving line in 2016. Conner is the dynasty handcuff to own in Pittsburgh.
Antonio Brown, WR
Brown has averaged a preposterous 120.3-1,578.8-10.8 line on an average of 173.8 targets per season since 2013, and even the return of Bryant doesn’t seem capable of stopping the Steelers’ third-leading receiver ever:
- Brown with Bryant (21 games): 12.5 targets, 8.9 receptions, 113.7 yards, 0.76 touchdowns, 25 DraftKings PPG
- Without (26 games): 10.2 targets, 7.1 receptions, 93.7 yards, 0.73 touchdowns, 20.9 PPG
Brown is one of the league’s top-three receivers with or without Bryant, but having someone else that is a serious threat to opposing secondaries has proven to be invaluable. While Brown’s production has suffered with Roethlisberger out of the lineup, it’s been only over a four-game sample size, and it’s not hard to imagine Jones and Brown finding some chemistry with a few more reps together: Only Julio Jones, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham Jr. averaged more yards per route run than Brown last season (min 300 routes).
Brown is currently the odds-on favorite to lead the league in receiving touchdowns (+550), yards (+400), and he has +5,000 odds to win the MVP. He’s finished among the top-two receivers in receiving yards during each of his past two 16-game seasons. Brown has never led the league in receiving touchdowns and had just seven targets inside the 10-yard line last season. While a receiving touchdown crown or MVP award seem unlikely with so many other weapons on offense, Brown is always a threat to challenge for the most receiving yards.
Brown has averaged 30.4 DraftKings PPG with a +11.2 Plus/Minus as a home favorite since 2014. If you want to construct Roethlisberger-Brown stacks this season, do it with our Lineup Builder.
Martavis Bryant, WR
Rumors suggest that Bryant is in fact a Black Swan. Though it took until his junior season at Clemson to surpass 350 yards or five touchdowns, he averaged a ridiculous 22.2 yards per catch during his three-year career and was relevant despite the presence of superstar teammate Sammy Watkins. After Bryant ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash and posted a 39-inch vertical at the combine, the Steelers were happy to stop his fall in the fourth round of the draft.
Various failed drug tests have led to suspensions and Bryant playing only 24 games in the past three seasons, but he still has shown his elite skill. Only nine receivers have averaged more yards per reception (min 100 targets) over the first two seasons of their career since 1992. Also (h/t PFF’s Scott Barrett):
- Bryant (24 career games): 366.7 PPR, 271.7 Standard
- Amari Cooper (last 24 games): 298.4 PPR, 191.4 Standard
Cooper’s DRAFT ADP currently sits at 20.4, while Bryant is at 45.5. Bryant has averaged 0.46 targets inside the 10-yard line per game since 2014; Brown, 0.53. With defenses honed in on Bell and Brown, Bryant offers weekly WR2 value with WR1 upside as long as he can stay on the field.
Eli Rogers, WR
Rogers will likely face competition from Coates and Heyward-Bey for reps, but it’s hard to get excited about any of them. The trio combined for seven receiving touchdowns last season, totaling two 100-plus yard performances in 37 combined games. Rogers is the favorite to resume slot duties, but don’t expect this role to yield more than a handful of inconsistent targets per week as long as Brown, Bryant, and Bell are healthy.
Jesse James, TE
Sheriff Jesse James has gained over 50 receiving yards once in 24 career games. Roethlisberger hasn’t featured a tight end since Heath Miller left, and Tomlin recently stated the team’s tight ends “hadn’t been consistently varsity enough.” It’s safe to say James won’t command a featured role in the offense.
Vance McDonald, TE
McDonald is a 94th-percentile SPARQ-x athlete and packs a punch at 6’4″ and 267 pounds. Still, 49ers quarterbacks posted a 54 percent completion rate to McDonald, and he’s never surpassed 400 yards or 30 catches in a season. McDonald’s 15.8 percent drop rate was the worst mark among all tight ends with at least 75-plus catchable targets over the past four seasons. He could help provide a vertical threat down the seams once he’s acclimated with the offense, but it’s hard to believe McDonald will suddenly command a larger role in the Steelers offense than he did with the 49ers.
2017 Futures
The Steelers currently have a win total of 10.5, with a lean on the over (-150). They’re -150, +600, and +1200, respectively, to win the AFC North, AFC, and Super Bowl. Writing for Rotoworld, Warren Sharp gives the Steelers the league’s 11th-easiest schedule this season. Their four non-division road games come against the Bears, Chiefs, Lions, and Colts. The Steelers are viewed as one of the top challengers to the Patriots’ reign of terror along with the Raiders, although it certainly appears as if the Steelers have the better defense and more-improved offense of the two teams.
Tomlin has gone 89-81-4 ATS since 2007, although he’s posted a 21-14-2 clip over the past two seasons. As a favorite, Tomlin and the Steelers have gone .500 ATS. The team has posted a 26-18-2 record ATS as a dog. Perhaps this is the time to look out for one of the league’s perennial powerhouses.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Steelers Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
