The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday brings a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers priced at $9,000 or above on FanDuel, headlined by Boston lefty ace Chris Sale:
Sale is the class of the slate and the highest-rated pitcher on both sites in the Bales Model. He’s coming off a disaster outing, scoring exactly 0.0 FanDuel points thanks to six earned runs, three walks, and just three strikeouts in 3.0 innings pitched against the Cleveland Indians, but he’s still posted a ridiculous +9.67 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
His Statcast data isn’t elite as it normally is, but it’s not egregious: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 211 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 34 percent, and a hard hit rate of 31 percent. That suggests he’s in fine form despite the struggle last game, and his Vegas data is good: He’s a massive -222 moneyline favorite against a Toronto squad currently implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. Per the MLB Trends tool, pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically done well, averaging a +5.56 Plus/Minus with a 66.4 percent Consistency Rating:
Sale himself has matched this trend five times, and he’s been utterly unstoppable, averaging a whopping 52.4 FanDuel points and a +14.41 Plus/Minus.
Sale’s 8.1 K Prediction, while high, ranks only fourth on the slate. Still, he’s the top option on the board, especially on FanDuel, where his reasonable $10,900 salary comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Jake Arrieta matches the Vegas data trend above as well, as he’s a -203 moneyline favorite facing a Pirates squad implied for just 3.3 runs. That’s certainly important, as there’s a huge gap in Vegas data between them and Ervin Santana, and Santana and the rest of the field. Only those three have opponent implied run totals below 4.2:
Arrieta is $2,100 cheaper than Sale on DraftKings and $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel, and he boasts superior recent Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 199 feet and an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour. He’s been very solid of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs since July 8, which was 10 starts ago. His biggest issue is K Prediction: He has a low mark of 5.5, and the Pirates’ projected lineup has one of the lowest SO/AB rates at .216. He profiles as a safe cash-game play but a fade in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) in favor of pitchers with higher strikeout upside.
After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use Sale, Arrieta, and all other pitchers by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard. Ownership rates across GPPs of various buy-in levels will also be available via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Matt Moore probably isn’t a good pitcher, and I include “probably” to be nice. He has a poor 1.530 past-year WHIP, although he has been better of late, hitting value in eight of his last 10 starts. That said, none of those data points matter because he’s facing the San Diego Padres, who have easily been the most pitcher-friendly squad in the league in 2017:
Per the Trends tool, opposing pitchers have averaged a league-high +2.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus and have met or exceeded salary-based expectations 59 percent of the time. The Padres are a dream matchup: They rank 29th with a .298 team wOBA but also second with a massive 25.2 percent strikeout rate. Moore gets them today, and although he has an average past-year SO/9 rate of 8.42 he also has a high 8.3 K Prediction. The Padres are implied for 4.4 runs, which isn’t great for Moore, but he has solid recent Statcast data and could outperform that implication: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. He’s a fine SP2 play on DraftKings, where his reasonable $8,100 salary comes with a 59 percent Bargain Rating.
Cardinals righty Luke Weaver is coming off a gem in which he scored 36.75 DraftKings points thanks to 10 strikeouts and only three hits allowed in 7.0 innings pitched. He’s just $7,600 and has a brilliant matchup — at least in terms of strikeout upside — against the Milwaukee Brewers, who sit first in 2017 with a 25.9 percent K rate. His recent Statcast data is a mixed bag: He’s allowed a low hard hit rate of 33 percent, but his batted ball distance of 210 feet and fly ball rate of 50 percent are ominous. There is some risk here — the Brewers are implied for 4.3 runs and Weaver is a low -128 moneyline favorite — but his $7,600 salary is more than reasonable given his massive upside.
Fastball
Rich Hill: He’s the one stud not mentioned above, mostly because he’s facing the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. He’s a favorite with -119 moneyline odds, but Arizona is implied for 4.4 runs. That said, he has immense upside — he posted 40.15 DraftKings points just last game — and he should have minuscule ownership.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
This slate is made even more complicated by Coors Field; the Rockies and Tigers are currently implied for 6.1 and 5.1 runs. The Tigers total is actually just the seventh-highest mark in the slate; that, combined with Sale’s likely chalkiness, will mean low ownership for these stacked batters. They face Colorado righty German Marquez, who has allowed a batted ball distance of 212 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and Justin Upton are the top batters in the Bales Model, and they all have recent exit velocities of 92-plus miles per hour. They could win someone a GPP tonight.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Los Angeles Angels are implied for 5.3 runs and yet are affordable. Kole Calhoun is the highest-rated batter in the FantasyDraft Bales Model, and he’s only $7,600. He’s crushed the ball of late, posting a 237-foot batted ball distance, 93 MPH exit velocity, and 44 percent fly ball rate over his last 13 games. The batters in this game have a solid 71 percent Weather Rating, and the Angels face Oakland righty Chris Smith, who has allowed an atrocious 93 MPH exit velocity and 48 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts.
Batters
White Sox righty James Shields has an awful 1.559 past-year WHIP along with a high 2.248 HR/9 rate. The Twins get him today, and they’re implied for 5.4 runs. Some of their batters have been struggling of late, but Jorge Polanco has played well, averaging a +4.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and is eligible at the tough shortstop position. Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 220 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 43 percent. Max Kepler leads all Twins projected batters with a recent fly ball rate of 48 percent. We could see more home runs given up by Shields tonight.
Chris Davis is projected to bat sixth for the Orioles and is in a game that has a 57 percent chance of precipitation. For those reasons, he’s currently projected for just two to four percent ownership on DraftKings. But for other reasons as well he’s a fantastic GPP play. First, he’s against a righty, which puts him on the positive side of his large splits: He owns a .336 wOBA and .247 ISO over the past year against RHP. Further, he’s destroyed the baseball over the last 11 games, averaging a batted ball distance of 246 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 55 percent. Those are marks to target in tournaments, especially at low ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
