The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday brings a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Despite the huge slate, there are only three pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
Zack Greinke is the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model, mostly because of his matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank dead last this season with a .296 team wOBA. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs, and because of Arizona’s potent offense, Greinke is a slate-high favorite with -232 moneyline odds. Pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically been valuable, averaging a +5.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 66.1 percent Consistency Rating (per the MLB Trends tool):
One issue is that Greinke is at home in Chase Field, which is historically one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. That hasn’t been a problem for him, however: He’s actually boasts ridiculous splits at home this season.
Greinke comes into this game with a +5.04 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 starts, although he did struggle in his most recent outing, allowing four runs and four walks across 4.0 innings pitched against the Twins. And yet he still has elite recent Statcast data: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 172 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 17 percent, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. Greinke’s 7.1 K Prediction isn’t amazing, but it’s solid considering the Giants rarely strike out; they rank 26th with a low 19.1 percent K rate. Greinke brings a ton of upside into this matchup and should be one of the highest-owned players in cash games.
After posting 57.0 FanDuel points against the Phillies three starts ago, Jacob deGrom has since allowed 19 hits and 10 runs to the Marlins and Yankees. And yet, like Greinke, he has solid Statcast data over that time: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 193 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 29 percent. That suggests he’s still in fine form, and he’ll need to be today against the Washington Nationals, who rank third this season with a .335 team wOBA. The matchup is concerning, especially since most of the other high-priced pitchers have strong matchups, but deGrom does have an 8.0 K Prediction, which ranks second today.
We’ll get to the pitchers right below these guys in salary in one moment, but it’s likely that they’ll be popular, along with Greinke. That means that paying up for deGrom and Justin Verlander could be a contrarian move in guaranteed prize pools, and it’s always intriguing to roster talented guys at low ownership. deGrom leads all pitchers with an average of 40.1 FanDuel points over the past year, while Verlander leads them with an average of 47.6 points over the past month. He’s not the pitcher he was earlier in his career, but he’s been consistent of late, averaging a +6.57 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10:
Verlander doesn’t rate highly in models today because of his mediocre 6.5 K Prediction, but he has a nice matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank 25th this season with a .312 team wOBA.
Values
Jose Quintana is coming off a nice outing in which he put up 46.0 FanDuel points against the Blue Jays, but what makes him stand out is his ridiculous recent Statcast data. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 162 feet, an exit velocity of 82 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 20 percent, and a hard hit rate of six percent. Those marks don’t happen very often, and similar pitchers have historically hit value 58.5 percent of the time:
If we look only at pitchers priced $8,000 or above, the trend gets even better:
As you might expect given his form, Quintana has solid Vegas data: He’s a -182 moneyline favorite over the Phillies, who are currently implied for just 3.8 runs. He brings safety into this slate, and he’s reasonably priced at $8,900 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. However, he could be worth a fade in GPPs given his low 5.9 K Prediction. After going for double-digit strikeouts back in early July, Quintana has been above seven just once since.
The guy who hits both the Vegas data and K Prediction checkmarks is Dodgers righty Kenta Maeda, who is a -182 moneyline favorite against the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ve been a bit of a boom-or-bust matchup for pitchers this year — they rank sixth with a .187 team ISO and also first with a massive 25.6 percent strikeout rate — but Vegas bettors don’t seem to be worried, as the Brewers are currently implied for just 3.4 runs. Maeda has a strong 9.269 SO/9 mark over the past year, and given how strikeout prone the Brewers are, he leads the slate with a 9.0 K Prediction. Similar pitchers have exceeded salary-based expectations but perhaps by not as much as you might expect:
Further, they’ve been owned at a massive rate, averaging 29.2 percent ownership in large-field FanDuel GPPs. Combine that with Maeda’s concerning recent Statcast data, and perhaps he’s worth a fade as well: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 224 feet and a fly ball rate of 51 percent. Paying up for deGrom and Verlander could certainly pay off in a big way in GPPs.
After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use the high-priced studs along with Maeda and Quintana by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard. Ownership rates across GPPs of various buy-in levels will also be available via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Fastball
Adam Conley: He has a poor 1.434 WHIP and 6.942 SO/9 over the past year, but he’s facing the San Diego Padres, who make essentially any pitcher interesting in GPPs. He’s coming off a shocking start in which he struck out 11 batters across 7.0 innings pitched, and the Padres’ projected lineup has a slate-high .328 SO/AB rate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.5 runs — the third-highest mark in the slate — against Twins righty Bartolo Colon, who has atrocious recent Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 241 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 58 percent, and a hard hit rate of 38 percent. Miguel Montero rounds out this stack at the projected No. 6 spot, and he’s been unlucky, as evidenced by his +57 Recent Batted Ball Luck. He has averaged a recent DraftKings Plus/Minus of -0.39, and yet he’s averaged a 264-foot batted ball distance, a 95 MPH exit velocity, and a 53 percent hard hit rate. Regression could certainly come tonight.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
Miami faces Padres lefty Travis Wood, who has an awful 1.604 past-year WHIP. Giancarlo Stanton is in play any time he faces a lefty: He owns a ridiculous .442 wOBA and .378 ISO against them over the past year. His recent Statcast data is excellent, too: Over his last 14 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 43 percent, and a hard hit rate of 39 percent. Stacked with teammates or rostered individually, it’s probably wise to be heavy on Stanton.
Batters
The Pirates visit the Great American Ball Park tonight, which has allowed the most home runs of any park in 2017. Further, they face Reds pitcher Robert Stephenson, whose 2.389 is the worst mark in the slate. His 1.888 past-year WHIP is also the worst mark of any pitcher today, and his recent Statcast data is terrible, too: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 216 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent. You get the picture: There could be some home runs from Pittsburgh tonight. Take a look at Josh Bell, who is projected to bat cleanup and leads the team with a .208 ISO.
Jake Odorizzi also allows a ton of home runs, and he faces the Cardinals, who are currently implied for 5.1 runs. Paul DeJong has dual eligibility on DraftKings at second base and shortstop, and he’s been solid of late, averaging a +1.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. His recent Statcast is even better: Over his last 13, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 243 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. He owns a .381 wOBA and .270 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year, and he should come with moderate ownership given the amount of teams tonight projected for five-plus runs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
