This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
First-year head coach Adam Gase and fifth-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill had the Dolphins at 8-5 and firmly in playoff contention through 14 weeks last season. Ultimately, Tannehill tore his ACL with three games remaining, and the Dolphins lost by 18 to the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs. Tannehill has already retorn his ACL this season, and suddenly Jay Cutler has unretired to reunite with Gase, who guided Cutler to one of the best seasons of his career as the Bears offensive coordinator in 2015. The Dolphins wouldn’t have gone through the trouble of signing Cutler to a $10 million deal if they didn’t believe they had a chance to contend in the AFC. Whether they’re actually contenders is another matter. The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season. For Gase and the Dolphins, 2017 is about returning to the postseason and maybe winning a couple of games in January.
Play-Calling Tendencies
Gase is just 39 years old, but he’s already been in the coaching carousel for 17 years. He helped out with the football team during his time as an undergraduate at Michigan State, and he followed Nick Saban to Louisiana State upon graduating. Gase served as a graduate and recruiting assistant there (2000-02) before leaving for an assistant scouting role with the Detroit Lions (2003-04). After being promoted to offensive assistant (2005-06) and then quarterbacks coach (2007), Gase left for the 49ers to be an offensive assistant in 2008. One year later, Gase joined the Denver Broncos and new HC Josh McDaniels.
Serving as the wide receivers coach (2009-10), Gase helped develop Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and mentored Brandon Lloyd to an outlier career year as a top-two fantasy receiver. He was promoted to quarterbacks coach once John Fox took over, working with first Tim Tebow (2011) and then Peyton Manning (2012). After OC Mike McCoy became the Chargers HC in 2013, Gase was elevated to OC. In 2013 Gase oversaw the most prolific offense of all time, as Manning passed for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns in a no-huddle attack. In 2014, the Broncos finished second in points scored and fourth in yards. While the Broncos skewed toward the pass under Gase, finishing top-10 in attempts both years, the team also finished top-12 in carries because they played at a top-10 neutral pace.
After three straight seasons ended in disappointing playoff losses, Fox was fired following the 2014 season. Quickly hired in Chicago, Fox brought in Gase to be the OC. With the Bears, Gase didn’t run the same up-tempo offense. In fact, the Bears were 27th in neutral pace in 2015, and they skewed heavily toward the run, finishing sixth in rush attempts and 25th in passing attempts. Still, he managed to piece together the league’s ninth-best offense in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average with limited talent at his disposal. After the 2015 season, the Dolphins hired Gase to be their new HC.
Clyde Christensen served as OC during Gase’s first season in Miami. A long-time Tony Dungy disciple who worked with the Buccaneers and then the Colts from 1996 to 2015, Christensen was the position coach for the great Indianapolis wide receiver units in the 2000s, and he was quarterback Andrew Luck’s position coach for his first four seasons (2012-14). In Miami last year, Christensen gave a rookie HC the benefit of his unrivaled experience, and he’s partially responsible for the success Tannehill had in what was the most efficient season of his career in terms of adjusted yards per attempt (7.3 AY/A).
Still, Gase called plays last year and will do so again this year. In 2016 it took him some time to get into a play-calling groove, but eventually (after the Dolphins started 1-4) Gase found the team’s strength: They shifted to the run (top-five in run/pass ratio), slowed down the game (31st in neutral pace), and gave second-year running back Jay Ajayi an average of 20.8 carries per game for the last 11 contests. The Dolphins closed the season on a 9-2 run, made the playoffs, and finished with double-digit wins for the first time since 2008.
As they did last year, the Dolphins this year will likely play at a slow pace and lean on the running game to hide a volatile quarterback and a defense that was 29th in yards allowed in 2016.
2017 Roster
While the addition of Cutler is significant, it’s not the only important change to the Dolphins offense:
- QB: Ryan Tannehill/Matt Moore –> Jay Cutler
- RB: Jay Ajayi/Damien Williams/Arian Foster –> Ajayi/Williams
- WR: DeVante Parker
- WR: Kenny Stills
- WR: Jarvis Landry
- TE: Dion Sims/MarQueis Gray –> Julius Thomas/Anthony Fasano
- LT: Branden Albert/Billy Turner –> Laremy Tunsil
- LG: Laremy Tunsil –> Ted Larsen/Anthony Steen
- C: Mike Pouncey/Anthony Steen/Kraig Urbik –> Pouncey
- RG: Jermon Bushrod
- RT: Ja’Wuan James
As (relatively) good as Tannehill and Moore were last year, Cutler can probably be better this year. In his 2015 season with Gase he averaged a career-best 7.4 AY/A — and that was with no Brandon Marshall and just eight games from Alshon Jeffery. Whereas last year Ajayi was a healthy scratch in Week 1 and Foster opened the season as the starter, this year Ajayi is the locked-in workhorse. The Dolphins have theoretically upgraded at tight end: Thomas had 24 touchdowns in 27 games under Gase with the Broncos in 2013-14, and Fasano has long been one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, especially in the running game: Last year he was Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 run-blocking tight end with an 89.7 grade.
The Dolphins replace just one starter on the offensive line, but continuity might not be a virtue for a line that struggled last season. The return of the three-time Pro-Bowler Pouncey is welcome, as he missed 11 games last year with a hip injury, but Bushrod had an unbelievably poor 39.2 overall PFF grade last year, the free-agent acquisition Larsen tore his biceps in early August and will miss at least half the season, and Tunsil — although a good tackle in college — will be playing left tackle in the NFL on a regular basis for the first time. The Dolphins finished 22nd in both adjusted sack rate and line yards and were 31st in the percentage of runs in which the ball carrier is tackled for no gain or a loss. This line should be better but perhaps not much better.
Following the departure of defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to Denver for the HC job, Matt Burke has been elevated from linebackers coach to DC. Otherwise, the defense is largely unchanged:
- DE: Andre Branch
- DT: Ndamukong Suh
- DT: Jordan Phillips –> Phillips/Davon Godchaux
- DE: Cameron Wake
- OLB: Kiko Alonso
- MLB: Koa Misi/Donald Butler/Spencer Paysinger –> Raekwon McMillan –> Mike Hull/Rey Maualuga
- OLB: Jelani Jenkins/Neville Hewitt –> Lawrence Timmons/Trevor Reilly
- CB: Byron Maxwell
- CB: Tony Lippett –> Bobby McCain/Alterraun Verner
- SCB: Bobby McCain/Xavien Howard –> Howard
- FS: Isa Abdul-Quddus/Michael Thomas –> Nate Allen
- SS: Reshad Jones/Bacarri Rambo –> Jones
The Dolphins have a strong defensive line led by Suh (top-three among defensive tackles in total quarterback pressures) and Wake (tied for highest pass-rush productivity among 4-3 ends), but they’re weak at linebacker. They’ve already lost their starting middle linebacker in the second-round rookie McMillan, who tore an ACL during training camp, and among the group there isn’t one player who ranked in PFF’s top 50 at his position. The secondary is also down a man, as Lippett will miss the season with a torn Achilles tendon. Maxwell was a top-10 cover corner last season, and a full season from Jones at safety should help, but the secondary is thin and the defense will need to hold strong against the league’s toughest schedule after Week 4, per Warren Sharp writing for Rotoworld.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
It’s a sad day when you can’t write 500 words on TanneThrill, but Smokin’ Jay will have to do.
Jay Cutler, QB
Cutler is now on team No. 3 in year 12 of an up-and-down career. He was brutal in five starts last season, throwing more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) while going 1-4. In his one win, scored 14.3 DraftKings points; in his four losses, 9.88 DraftKings points per game (PPG). From a fantasy perspective, the Gase-Cutler relationship is overrated. Cutler has failed to put together big games over the past two seasons, throwing for more than 300 yards just three times in his last 20 starts. He’s thrown for more than two touchdowns just once since Marshall played his last snap for the Bears in late 2014.
Cutler ranked 25th among all quarterbacks (minimum eight starts) in 2015 with 16.76 DraftKings PPG, although he did provide some value with his +2.03 Plus/Minus, 60.0 percent Consistency Rating, and 1.4 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools (per our Trends tool). This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. It’s possible that sharp players will take advantage of the ownership discount Cutler offered with Gase in 2015. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Dolphins each week.
Somewhat remarkably, Cutler hasn’t thrown for 4,000 yards in a season since leaving Denver in 2008, and he’ll be playing behind PFF’s No. 26 offensive line. The Parker-Landry-Stills trio may be the strongest receiving unit of Cutler’s career, but it’s fair to wonder how often he’ll be allowed (and able) to air it out. If everything breaks right for Cutler in terms of health, ability, scheme, and teammates, he could piece together a few stretches of above-average play and help lead a ball-control offense to playoff contention. If everything breaks wrong, Cutler could headline an inconsistent offense that will be unceremoniously turned over to Moore.
Matt Moore, QB
Moore has been the backup quarterback since 2011, so it’s telling that the Dolphins felt the need to throw $10 million at Cutler after Tannehill’s injury. Moore is a fine backup — he played well in relief of Tanny last year, going 2-1 to lead the Dolphins to the playoffs and averaging an 8.6 AY/A in the process — but he’s probably not someone who should start more than a few games in a pinch. That said, he had multi-touchdown games in each start he made last year (excluding playoffs), and he was owned at just 0.2 percent. He could be a legitimate contrarian GPP option in the event that he replaces Cutler as the starter.
Jay Ajayi, RB
The fantasy community seems to be split on last season’s RB12 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Despite not starting until Week 6, Ajayi converted his 260 rushes into 1,272 yards and eight touchdowns. He surpassed 200 yards in a game on three separate occasions, a feat only Earl Campbell, Tiki Barber, and O.J. Simpson have managed to achieve since the 1970 merger. Ajayi’s emergence didn’t seem likely given his residence in Gase’s doghouse, but he’s had the ability to be a star all along.
A change-of-pace back as a redshirt freshman at Boise State, Ajayi averaged a team-high 6.7 yards per carry (YPC) on 82 attempts before breaking out in his second season with 1,647 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns. In his third and final season, he did even better, exploding for 2,358 yards and 32 touchdowns. Ajayi’s two-year NFL receiving line of 34-241-0 doesn’t inspire confidence, but he put up a 50-535-4 line as a junior and seems to have three-down ability. Christensen said this offseason that Ajayi may be the most improved player on the team and that “he’s a different guy from a year ago.”
The argument against Ajayi: He was mediocre aside from his three 200-plus yard games, surpassing 100 yards just once in his other eight starts. His performance against the Steelers and Bills (twice) during the regular season nearly outpaced his performance in his other 12 games combined:
- 3 games (PIT, BUF): 85 rushes, 624 yards, 7.34 YPC, 4 TDs
- Remaining 12 games: 175 rushes, 648 yards, 3.70 YPC, 4 TDs
It’s possible that Ajayi’s breakout last year was a fluke. That said, Ajayi has the profile of someone who should be an NFL stud. He was in the top 15th percentile as a collegiate runner and receiver, and he was an 81st percentile SPARQ-x athlete at the 2015 combine (PlayerProfiler). In his rookie year he was fifth in the league with a 39.3 percent juke rate, and among all backs with at least 150 carries last year he led the league with 3.46 yards after contact per attempt and a 22.3 percent missed tackle rate. Opportunity is everything for running backs, and after Ajayi became a starter no back had more than his 299 carries. Ajayi has converted over half of his nine rushes inside the five-yard line into touchdowns, and more red-zone and receiving opportunities could mean the best is yet to come from the 24-year old workhorse. He could drastically outperform his average draft position (ADP) of 13.8 in DRAFT best ball leagues.
Damien Williams, RB
Although Williams has underwhelmed as an NFL runner with a career mark of 3.4 YPC on 87 carries, he’s flashed as a receiver, putting together a three-year 65-578-5 line. While Ajayi established himself as the lead back in Weeks 6-17, Williams emerged as a solid pass-catching and goal-line supplement, averaging 2.1 targets per game (TPG) and five touchdowns over the team’s final 11 games. A junior college superstar and lead back at Oklahome before being kicked off the team, Williams averaged an impressive 110.1 scrimmage yards and 1.37 touchdowns per game across his 46 college contests. With an elite combination of size (5’11” and 222 lbs.) and speed (4.45-second 40), Williams last year was first among all running backs with 0.59 fantasy points per snap and second with 2.6 yards after contact per touch. With his pass-catching and goal-line role and status as Ajayi’s handcuff, Williams at his 216.9 DRAFT ADP is one of the most undervalued Zero RB candidates of 2017.
Kenyan Drake, RB
Another in a long line of Alabama backs (Editor’s Note: ‘Alabacks’), Drake is different than Glen Coffee, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry: Drake never made the collegiate jump from backup to stud. The third-stringer behind Lacy and Yeldon as a true freshman in 2012, Drake was in line to be the eventual Crimson Tide lead back, but — after a nine-touchdown sophomore campaign — a broken leg in 2014 and broken arm in 2015 sidelined Drake for significant chunks of time, giving Henry the opportunity to emerge as the second back — and the Heisman-winning back stole Drake’s job. Although Drake was a talented collegiate player, he never played as anything more than a change-of-pace back. In no single season did he average even 10 touches per game. He has good size (6’1″ and 210 lbs.) and speed (4.45-second 40), but he produced only in spurts as a third-round rookie last year and has missed some of training camp with a concussion. Barring an injury to Ajayi, Drake is unlikely to be a significant fantasy player in 2017.
Jarvis Landry, WR
Landry’s third season wasn’t as productive as his second, but he still caught 90-plus passes and gained over 1,100 yards. He’s tied at 288 receptions with former collegiate teammate Odell Beckham Jr. for the most receptions in a player’s first three seasons since the merger, although OBJ has gained over 1,000 more yards and scored 22 additional touchdowns. Landry is an excellent slot receiver, but his efficiency numbers are not those of an excellent all-around wideout. Out of the 34 receivers to have at least 200 receptions in their first three seasons, only Reggie Bush and Davone Bess have averaged fewer yards per catch than Landry.
Landry managed to top OBJ in receptions, yards, and touchdowns during their junior seasons at Louisiana State, but unlike Beckham, who’s a gifted physical specimen, Landry is literally in the bottom percentile as a SPARQ-x athlete (PlayerProfiler). The Dolphins have taken their time in inking Landry to a long-term deal, perhaps signalling their reluctance to commit to arguably the third-most talented receiver on the team.
Landry is undoubtedly a great slot receiver: With 2.33 yards per route run (YPRR) from the slot, he was second to only Julian Edelman among all receivers with at least 200 slot routes last season (PFF), and he’s capable of making breathtaking plays with the ball in his hands. Still, Landry saw 9.6 TPG before Ajayi’s emergence and just 7.6 TPG after, and now he has a new quarterback who might be less desirous to check the ball down and more willing to throw downfield. Landry has a lot of downside at his 51.0 DRAFT ADP.
DeVante Parker, WR
Cutler spoke glowingly about Parker after their first preseason game together, calling him a “faster Alshon.” Parker has missed only two games over the past two seasons, but inconsistency and minor injuries have caused him to post an 82-1,238-7 career receiving line. Alshon, indeed. His production hasn’t been terrible, but the 2015 first-rounder is yet to live up to the promise he showed coming out of Louisville, where in his last two college seasons he averaged 96.7 yards and 0.94 touchdowns per game. He was credited with only three drops during his college career and repeatedly demonstrated the ability to make contested catches and plays down the field. With his size (6’3″ and 209 lbs.), speed (4.45-second 40), and college production, Parker was an A.J. Green clone entering the NFL.
Could this finally be the season we see some AJG-esque production out of Parker? He’s averaged 18.62 DraftKings PPG in his five games with eight-plus targets — but in his 11 games last year with Ajayi as the starter Parker hit the eight-target threshold only twice and averaged 10.16 DraftKings PPG, still trailing Landry on a per-game basis:
- Landry (Weeks 6-17): 7.6 targets, 66.6 yards, 0.27 touchdowns
- Parker: 5.6, 45.2, 0.27
Parker has overwhelming talent and perhaps the right quarterback to feed him targets down the field — and he’s destined to have some big performances — but unless the offense shifts away from Ajayi or Parker is able to steal targets from Landry or Stills he seems optimistically priced at his 83.1 DRAFT ADP. Still, if you want to harness Parker’s upside in GPPs this season via stacks with Cutler, do it with our Lineup Builder.
Kenny Stills, WR
Stills scored an outrageous nine touchdowns on his 81 targets and 42 receptions last season. With blazing speed (4.38-second 40), Stills helps unlock the Dolphins offense as the team’s deep threat, but he’s the epitome of a boom-or-bust wide receiver. He’s surpassed 100 yards in only four of his 63 career games and finished with fewer than 50 receiving yards in 39 games. Stills isn’t a factor near the end zone (two targets inside the 10-yard line since 2015) and is almost certainly due for negative touchdown regression as the No. 3 receiver in a run-heavy offense. Only 19 receivers (including Stills) have scored at least nine touchdowns on fewer than 90 targets since 1990. On average they have scored 5.4 fewer touchdowns the following season. It seems likely that Stills, who has never gained over 1,000 yards in a season dating back to his time at Oklahoma, just had the best season of his career.
Leonte Carroo, WR
A third-round rookie last year with Hakeem Nicks-like size (6’0″ and 211 lbs.) and athleticism (4.50-second 40), Carroo was a collegiate beast at Rutgers, averaging 90.2 yards and 0.95 touchdowns per game in his two final seasons. He was especially strong as a senior with his 4.9-101.1-1.25 stat line, finishing in the 99th percentile with an absurd 63.9 percent of his team’s receiving production (PlayerProfiler). As a rookie, however, Carroo ran only 68 pass routes last season — and just 38 of those came after he filled in for the injured Parker in Week 1. Barring an injury to Landry, Parker, or Stills, it’s hard to see Carroo establishing himself as fantasy option this season. That said, he’s versatile enough to play in the slot and out wide. He’s a legitimate backup to all three starting receivers. In the long term, he’s a buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues, given that Landry could leave Miami after this season.
Jakeem Grant, WR
Rumored to be best friends with Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman, Grant is diminutive (5’6″ and 165 lbs.), but he has great speed (4.40-second 40) and was a playmaker at Texas Tech with 1,336 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns as a receiver, runner, and return man in 13 games as a senior. He put up a 10-125-3 receiving line against a tough Louisiana State defense in his final collegiate game. But as a sixth-round rookie, Grant played almost exclusively as a return man last year. The team has made a point of working with Grant as a receiver this offseason, and it’s possible that he could see some Tavon Austin-esque usage as a gadget player this season. If so, he might warrant occasional exposure in GPPs, given his ability to produce big plays in a variety of ways.
Julius Thomas, TE
Thomas was a basketball player at Portland State until his senior season, but the Broncos took him in the fourth round of the 2011 draft thanks to his athletic upside. He exploded in 2013 with Manning at quarterback and Gase as the OC, posting a 65-788-12 line in 14 games and following that up with a 43-489-12 performance in 2014. The Thomas we’ve seen in Jacksonville the past two seasons hasn’t inspired much hope, but he is still just 29 years old and Cutler is a clear upgrade on Bortles. In 2015, with Gase as his OC, Cutler threw eight touchdowns to his tight ends (compared to eight to his wide receivers). It’s possible Thomas could establish himself as one of Cutler’s go-to targets near the end zone.
2017 Futures
The Dolphins win total currently rests at 7.5 with a +120 over and -150 under. They’re +350 to make the playoffs and -500 not to. Writing for Rotoworld, Warren Sharp gives the Dolphins the seventh-hardest schedule. Although they’ve had turnover across the organization, they’ve averaged 7.8 wins per season over the last nine years, and this year’s team might be most talented they’ve had in a decade. Over the last four years they’ve been a .500 team. The Dolphins don’t seem especially likely to hit the over, but that’s where the value is and playing in the same division with the Patriots hasn’t kept them from getting at least eight wins in three of the last four years.
The Dolphins are +7,500 to win the Super Bowl, +4,000 to win the AFC, and +1,000 to win the AFC East. The Dolphins have hit double-digit wins just four times since 2001. Over that same span, the Patriots have dropped down to single-digit wins just once. In the entire history of the universe, the Dolphins have won their division only when the Patriots have not been quarterbacked by Tom Brady. Despite finishing second in the division last year, the Dolphins were four full games out of first place. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which they win their division, much less their conference or the Super Bowl.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Dolphins Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
