The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There’s a five-game early slate at 1:10 pm ET and a five-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
They’re pitching all throughout the day: Aaron Nola and Luis Severino are in the main slate, while the other three are in the early — at least on DraftKings. FanDuel is not including the 3:10 pm Braves/Rockies game or the 4:07 pm Rays/Jays game in the early slate. That obviousl changes the dynamic of that early slate, as it eliminates Chris Archer from the pool and also takes out Coors Field batters. Being able to analyze each site’s early slate separately within Models could provide a large edge today.
Oddly enough, all of the studs are right in line in terms of strikeout upside; here are their current K Predictions, which could change if confirmed lineups are different than our projected ones.
I even threw Jeff Samardzija in there to show how close these guys all are: Every pitcher $8,900 or higher has a K Prediction between 7.5 and 7.9. That 7.9 mark leads all pitchers today, so it’s safe to say there’s not a big edge to be had in terms of banking on strikeouts. Instead, focusing on Vegas data, matchups, and Statcast data will be the way to go.
The guy with easily the best Vegas data is Severino, who faces a Mets team currently implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. Severino is a solid -189 moneyline favorite, and players with comparable Vegas data points have historically been valuable assets on FanDuel, averaging 38.18 fantasy points and a +4.54 Plus/Minus with a 61.4 percent Consistency Rating (per the MLB Trends tool):
These pitchers have also been popular, averaging ownership rates of 21.0 percent in mid-sized FanDuel guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Severino’s projected for 41-plus percent ownership on DraftKings and 31-35 percent ownership on FanDuel. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels after lineups lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Given his Vegas data, it is hard to fade Severino, even though he’s coming off a terrible start, allowing a whopping eight earned runs and two home runs across 4.1 innings pitched to the Red Sox. It was bad enough to tank his recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 213 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. That said, he’s still averaged a +6.19 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, and a quick glance at his game log suggests that his last start was an outlier:
Carlos Carrasco should be one of the most popular options in the early slate despite averaging a -0.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus with just a 30 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts. He did crush last game, posting 39.6 fantasy points against the Rays thanks to 10 strikeouts, no runs, and just two hits across 8.0 innings. As expected given that start, his recent Statcast data is solid: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 200 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. His Vegas data isn’t otherworldly, but it’s as good as it gets in the early slate: He’s a -180 moneyline favorite against the Twins, who are currently implied for a slate-low 3.9 runs. On FanDuel, he’s the only pitcher with an opponent implied run total of 4.5 runs or lower; he should be massively owned on that site since Archer is unavailable.
Values
Samardzija is currently the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both sites, which might be a bit surprising considering he’s been average lately, posting back-to-back games of only 13 DraftKings points. That said, he has above-average data points in almost every category. He’s only a small favorite with -116 moneyline odds, but that’s because he’s up against Nola. The Phillies aren’t a dire matchup: They rank 27th this season with a .305 team wOBA, and they’re currently implied for only 3.4 runs. After facing the Nationals and Diamondbacks in his last two starts, the Phillies are likely a welcome sight for Shark. He’s at home in San Francisco, which gives him (and Nola) a slate-high Park Factor of 93. Despite the last two mediocre fantasy performances, Samardzija has solid recent Statcast data: Over that time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 208 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 34 percent. He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and eight on FanDuel; he should be chalky tonight.
Most users will likely stick to the stud options today, but it could pay off to use a different roster construction strategy and take a low-priced option like Jhoulys Chacin, who is surprisingly a slight -108 favorite over the Washington Nationals. He has a respectable 6.6 K Prediction, and his opponent implied run total of 4.2 runs is lower than expected given that the Nationals rank second in the league with a massive .340 team wOBA. He’s in a pitcher’s park at home in San Diego and in good recent form: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. At just $6,000 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 74 percent Bargain Rating, Chacin is worth a shot as a contrarian GPP play.
After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use Samardzija, Chacin, and the other main slate pitchers by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Fastball
Aaron Nola: He’s the GPP pivot away from Severino and Samardzija in the main slate, and he could see ownership given that his $12,000 DraftKings salary is a bit higher for an underdog. If that’s the case, this pitcher at low ownership sounds pretty good . . .
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) in the early slate currently belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The early slate presents a huge dilemma: Roster the stud pitchers in Carrasco and Archer, or take the high-implied yet expensive bats of the Rockies. Fading those bats at Coors Field is terrifying, especially after their 17-run explosion last night. These guys continue to smash the ball, especially projected cleanup hitter Gerardo Parra, who has averaged a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent over his last 13 games. The Rockies face Braves righty Lucas Sims, who has a poor 1.462 WHIP and owns the highest HR/9 mark in the slate at 2.105. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and now he has to visit Coors. Fade the Rockies at your own risk.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Rangers should definitely be popular in the main slate, as their massive 6.1 implied run total is the largest on the slate by a full run. Joey Gallo isn’t part of this stack, mostly because of his huge $10,500 salary — the third-highest salary in the main slate — and excluding him will be a contrarian move. That’s just as scary as fading the Rockies in the early slate, however: He’s hit a home run in each of his last three games, and his Statcast data is ridiculous. Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 266 feet, an exit velocity of 100 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 46 percent, and a hard hit rate of 60 percent. I double-checked: Those data points were not written in error.
Batters
Kris Bryant is an interesting guy in the early slate on DraftKings. His $5,200 salary is the seventh highest on the slate, and I discussed above how hard it is to roster the pitching studs as well as the batting studs. I’m not sure how ownership will break down given that dilemma, but historically people have tended to opt for stud pitchers over stud batters. If that’s the case today, will that drop Bryant’s ownership even lower? — especially since he’s just as expensive as the Rockies’ batters? He has elite Statcast data recently, averaging a batted ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 48 percent over his last 14 games. He has the potential to be the highest-scoring player in the slate.
The pitcher with the worst recent Statcast data in the main slate is Texas righty Tyson Ross, who has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts. His batted ball data in Models is only from his last start, which was his best start over that three-game stretch — he allowed ‘only’ three runs. Still, he was bad, allowing an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 52 percent. That could spell trouble tonight, especially against someone like Yoan Moncada, who has elite Statcast data over his last 11 games despite not seeing fantasy production:
Over his last 11 games, Moncada has averaged a batted ball distance of 224 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 52 percent. Positive regression could come in a hurry.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
