The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There’s a humongous gap between the mid-tier pitchers and the studs today: Corey Kluber ($11,700) and Chris Sale ($11,400) are the only pitchers priced at $9,000 or above on FanDuel:
Kluber has been dominant since returning from the disabled list, posting a ridiculous +21.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
He has been a strikeout machine over the last two months: Since that first start back on June 1st, he has posted double-digit strikeouts in 10 of 12 starts. And in the two he didn’t get to 10, he posted eight. He is arguably the best strikeout pitcher going right now, and he just dominated a powerful Yankees offense, striking out 11 batters and allowing just three hits across a full nine innings. His recent Statcast data is mixed: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 214 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 35 percent. Those marks could be better, but they also matter less when batters can’t make contact.
Kluber has a nice matchup against the Rockies, who are currently implied for just 3.1 runs; he’s a massive favorite with -234 moneyline odds. Those two factors alone have been historically valuable; pitchers with comparable marks have averaged a +6.17 Plus/Minus with a 66.6 percent Consistency Rating (per the MLB Trends tool):
Kluber does have a lower K Prediction than you might expect at 8.3, but note that our K Predictions tend to be more conservative; his mark is still the second highest in the slate behind Sale’s 9.2. Kluber has the most Pro Trends on DraftKings (11) and FanDuel (10); he’d be the chalkiest guy in most slates, but he and Sale should cannibalize each other’s ownership tonight.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various buy-in levels after lineups lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Speaking of Sale: He’s coming off the worst outing of his season, scoring just 9.0 FanDuel points against the Indians thanks to seven earned runs, two home runs, and just five strikeouts across five innings. Despite that, he’s still averaging a +13.40 Plus/Minus across his last 10 starts:
Intriguingly, he still has elite Statcast data over his last two starts: During those games, he allowed a batted ball distance of 200 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 16 percent. Those marks suggest he will regress back to his studly form, and Vegas bettors agree: The opponent Rays are currently implied for 2.9 runs — the lowest mark in the slate — and Sale is a big -205 moneyline favorite.
All that is great, but the most important factor with Sale is his strikeout upside. He faces a Rays team that ranks third in the league with a 25.1 percent strikeout rate, and his 9.2 K Prediction is the slate’s highest mark by 0.9 strikeouts. Prior to his blowup last game, he hadn’t been below nine strikeouts in any of his last eight starts. Further, he has smashed the Rays in three starts this season, posting an average of 55.67 FanDuel points, a +17.89 Plus/Minus, and perfect Consistency. That said, that ownership level shows just how popular he will likely be in this spot, even with Kluber:
Both of these studs are expensive, but it isn’t infeasible to roster both on DraftKings given the softer pricing of some of the high-implied bats tonight. Our proprietary Team Value Rating (TVR) metric can help identify these teams; that stat is defined below:
A 0 to 100 grade showing a team’s historical value based on their live implied runs and collective salaries on a given DFS site.
Take the Minnesota Twins, for example, who are currently implied for 5.3 runs and in possession of the highest DraftKings TVR of the night at 89. Projected No. 2 hitter Max Kepler is just $3,000 on DraftKings, and rostering their top five batters costs just $18,300. You could get in both Kluber and Sale with them, although it would require at least a couple minimum-salaried batters to be available tonight, but my larger point stands: It isn’t impossible to roster a high-implied stack and also get at least Sale or Kluber, if not both.
Values
Kenta Maeda owns a top-three player rating in the Bales Model tonight along with Sale and Kluber, which is surprising considering he’s visiting Chase Field. Further, he doesn’t have great Vegas data: He’s just a small -126 favorite against the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied for 4.3 runs. So what makes Maeda stand out? It is likely his DraftKings price, strikeout upside, and recent form. Maeda is coming off a 29.95-point DraftKings outing against the Braves, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight starts. Despite that consistency, his salary hasn’t budged: He’s only $7,300 on DraftKings, where he comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating. He has an 8.0 K Prediction today, which is third highest in the slate, and he also has nice Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 23 percent. He’s projected for five to eight percent ownership on DraftKings and could provide some leverage in GPPs.
Dallas Keuchel is to FanDuel what Maeda is to DraftKings, except Keuchel has perhaps the best matchup in the entire slate facing a White Sox team that owns a top-10 K rate this season and ranks 26th with a .309 team wOBA. I’ve mentioned this trend several times recently, but it is worth recapping again. Prior to the All-Star break, the White Sox were the best team in the league against left-handed pitchers, who averaged a -4.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus against them through June:
Since the All-Star break, that trend has reversed. Hard.
People are starting to catch on — average ownership for these pitchers is up to 11.6 percent since the beginning of July — but there’s still major upside here with Keuchel, especially since he’s sharing a slate with Sale and Kluber, in comparison to whom he has a lowly 7.1 K Prediction, but he can still post big games. He’s the largest favorite of the day with -245 moneyline odds, and he’s only $8,800 on FanDuel, where he leads all pitchers with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Jose Quintana: He has a beautiful matchup against a Giants team that ranks last in the league in 2017 with a .293 team wOBA. Further, he gets them in San Francisco, where he owns a slate-high 94 Park Factor. His 6.1 K Prediction can’t compete with the big boys, but it is hard to ignore that plus matchup in tournaments.
Zack Godley: He is fifth in this slate with an average of 22.2 DraftKings points per game over the last month, and he’s posted a +6.36 Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10. He’s allowed just seven hits and zero runs over his last two starts, and he has outstanding recent Statcast data, including an 86 MPH exit velocity. His opponent implied run total of 4.8 isn’t great against the Dodgers, but that should also keep his ownership levels low.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Minnesota Twins, but I mentioned them in the pitching section above. Instead, let’s discuss the Baltimore Orioles, who are currently implied for just 4.4 runs against the Angels:
Given their mediocre run total in a 15-game slate, they should have little ownership, and that is intriguing, considering they’re facing Angels righty Parker Bridwell, who has concerning recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 236 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 45 percent. That is dangerous against an Orioles team that has some hot hitters. Seth Smith is projected to bat seventh, but he has perhaps the best Statcast data in the entire lineup: Over his last nine games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 243 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 52 percent, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for today’s main slate:
The Brewers are currently implied for 4.8 runs, which is tied for seventh in the slate. Like the Orioles, they have a guy later in the lineup with the best recent Statcast data in Keon Broxton, who has averaged a 272-foot batted ball distance, 96 MPH exit velocity, and 66 percent hard hit rate over the last 15 days. He also leads all projected hitters in this lineup with a massive .321 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
Batters
This slate is intriguing; I haven’t even mentioned any Houston batters yet, and they’re currently implied for a slate-high 5.9 runs. They face White Sox lefty Derek Holland, who has not been good lately:
He owns a poor 1.589 past-year WHIP and the third-highest HR/9 mark in the slate at 1.952. The Houston bats are always in play, and they could be underowned given the high-priced pitching studs and cheaper high-implied stacks available (like the Twins). If so, look at someone like Jose Altuve, who has as much upside as any batter on any given night. He’s averaged a batted ball distance of 224 feet over his last 12 games and comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
One final guy I’ll point out is Joey Votto, who is projected to bat third for a Reds team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He has three straight games with a home run, and his recent Statcast data confirms he’s raking: Over his last 14 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 261 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 56 percent. He’s on the positive side of his splits against a righty; he’s averaged a nice .295 ISO against righties over the past year.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
