The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s an 11-game main slate starting at 1:10 pm ET and a four-game afternoon slate starting at 3:10 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today with a salary of at least $9,000, and all five are pitching in the early slate:
Chris Archer has the highest price tag on the slate at $10,500, and he leads the slate in a variety of pitching categories as well. His K Prediction of 8.8 and opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs both rank first, and his -138 moneyline ranks fifth. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have done well on FanDuel (per the Trends Tool):
He’s facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who started the season strong but have been a major disappointment since the All-Star Break. Their strikeout rate of 28.3 percent against right-handed pitchers is the worst mark in the league over that time period, and their wOBA of .296 ranks just fifth.
The only real concern with Archer is his dreadful Statcast data from his last three starts. His recent batted ball distance of 235 feet is the worst among all of today’s starters and represents an increase of 21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Archer’s matchup and strikeout ability — he leads the slate with a 12-month K/9 of 11.01 — suggest that minimal balls will be put in play against him, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get hurt by the Brewers. In two of his past three starts, Archer has struck out double-digit batters, yet he’s allowed at least three runs in both of them. He’s arguably the most talented pitcher on the slate in a really good matchup, but he’s not Clayton Kershaw. He’ll probably be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Carlos Carrasco and Luis Severino are facing off in Cleveland, which creates an intriguing dynamic on the slate. Carrasco looks to be in the better spot of the two, leading Severino in three key areas:
- Carrasco: 7.6 K Prediction, 3.9-run opponent implied total, -118 moneyline odds
- Severino: 6.9 K Prediction, 4.2-run opponent implied total, +109 moneyline odds
Carrasco also has an edge in salary, coming in $200 less on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel, yet Severino rates higher in the Bales Model on both sites.
So why the love for Severino? For one, his Statcast data over his last two starts is excellent, particularly his batted ball distance of 179 feet. He’s also averaged 114 pitches in those games, and pitchers with comparable pitch counts, Statcast data, and K Predictions have historically been solid on DraftKings:
Carrasco should have the higher ownership of the two given all the factors outlined above, which makes Severino an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Jeff Samardzija is coming off two straight solid outings, totaling 13 strikeouts while allowing four earned runs over 15 innings. He faces a tough Arizona Diamondbacks team, be they’re away from Chase Field, which negates some of their offensive potency. They’re averaging the eighth-fewest runs per game this season when playing on the road, and their projected lineup has the worst splits-adjusted 12-month strikeout rate on the slate at 29.0 percent. Samardzija’s K Prediction of 7.5 ranks third among today’s pitchers.
Additionally, pitching in San Francisco rewards Samardzija with a 94 Park Factor that ranks first on the slate. Samardzija is only a slight favorite with moneyline odds of just -119, but comparable favorites with similar K Predictions and Park Factors have historically smashed value on DraftKings:
He’s the top pitching option on the small afternoon slate.
Jameson Taillon hasn’t just been bad over his last 10 starts: He’s been downright dreadful:
His last two outings in particular have been abysmal, allowing 17 total runs and 20 hits over just 6.2 innings pitched. You won’t find my name in the list of available pitchers on DraftKings, yet I’ve provided 24.8 more fantasy points than Taillon has over that time frame. His Statcast data from those starts is predictably poor, but it’s not as terrible as you might imagine: 209-foot distance, 89 mph exit velocity, 24 percent hard hit rate. He probably hasn’t deserved to get rocked to the extent that he has been, evidenced by his Recent Batted Ball Luck +48.
Taillon is likely due for positive regression, and no team has presented a better opportunity for that this season than the San Diego Padres. Pitchers facing the Padres have averaged more fantasy points, a higher Plus/Minus, and a better Consistency Rating than those facing any other team by a wide margin:
Basically, facing the Padres is the pitcher equivalent of hitting at Coors, and Taillon gets that opportunity on today’s slate. His moneyline odds of -177 are the third best on the slate, and his opponent implied total of 3.9 runs is tied for second. His recent results might scare some people away, but he’s in as good of a spot as anyone.
Fastballs
Jimmy Nelson: He has a large opponent implied team total of 4.5 runs, but that’s his only significant negative on today’s slate. He has strong marks in both K Prediction (7.3) and Park Factor (84), and he has negative differentials in batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over his last two starts. Opposing Archer, he should have minimal ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Doug Fister: He’s dirt cheap at only $5,000 on DraftKings and is also the largest favorite of the day with -210 moneyline odds. That makes him a bit of an anomaly with only 40 historical comps in our database, but those pitchers have crushed with an average Plus/Minus of +3.28 and Consistency Rating of 70.0 percent. Fister also has a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -21 feet, which is one of the best marks on the day.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Mariners current implied team total of 4.7 runs ranks just eighth on the slate, and they’re facing a pitcher in Danny Duffy who has been borderline elite in the past. Duffy hasn’t been the same this season — his current K/9 of 7.08 is significantly less than last year’s mark of 9.42 — but he’s still a tough challenge for opposing batters. What the Mariners do have going for them is strong recent Statcast data, with all of the stacked batters except for Jean Segura posting positive distance differentials:
Kyle Seager could be an intriguing member of Mariners stacks. He has a better wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitchers over the past 12-months, but as a lefty he has a historical ownership rate of just 2.9 percent when facing a southpaw.
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our suite of products — Bryan Mears has a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy — and they allow you to stack up to six batters from the same team. The top six-man stack on the afternoon slate belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The afternoon slate features both Coors Field and the Los Angeles Dodgers, so the Angels could fly a bit under the radar. All six batters are relatively cheap on FantasyDraft, owning Bargain Ratings ranging from 81 to 94 percent, and Athletics left-hander Sean Manaea has allowed a dreadful batted ball distance of 243 feet over his last three starts.
Batters
Josh Donaldson has been in the zone recently, posting an average batted ball distance of 250 feet over his last 11 games, good for a 15-day/12-month differential of +35 feet. Batters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.62 on FanDuel.
Keon Broxton has played in only four games since returning from the disabled list, and his production in those games has not been good:
His Statcast data, however, paints a different picture. He has an average distance of 263 feet over that time frame, resulting in a slate best Recent Batted Ball Luck of +94. The sample is small, but if Broxton continues to hit like this he’s going to start producing.
Joey Gallo is projected to bat seventh for the Rangers, which would represent a slight increase from where he’s hit for the majority of the season. Any potential increase in at bats for Gallo is a major development for fantasy purposes because his Statcast data is almost always off the charts; he has a distance of 271 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50 percent over his last 12 games.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
