The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are a whopping eight pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel today, although there’s a huge salary gap between the field and studs Max Scherzer and Chris Sale:
Scherzer and Sale have been the best pitchers in baseball this season and lead the league with Wins Above Replacement (WAR) marks of 4.5 and 6.6, respectively. They’ve averaged +14.57 and +17.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus values over their last 10 starts and collectively have exceeded salary-based expectations in 19 of those 20 affairs. Scherzer hasn’t dipped below nine strikeouts in each of his last five games; Sale hasn’t gone below that in his last eight. These are the studs of the studs, and they’re together in the same big slate.
As a result, we’re going to have to dig deeper into the data to find an edge between the two. Both have slate-low opponent implied run totals of 3.3, although Scherzer is a larger favorite with -203 moneyline odds compared to Sale’s -160. That might seem like an insignificant difference — they have the exact same opponent implied run total — but our Trends tool shows that it matters. Pitchers with similar opponent run totals and a moneyline similar to Scherzer’s have done better . . .
. . . and been more consistent than pitchers with similar opponent run totals and a moneyline similar to Sale’s:
It’s not a huge edge, but we’ll take what we can get today. All that said, there are a couple very notable differences between the two studs today: Their Park Factors and K Predictions. Scherzer is in Miami, where he benefits from an 86 Park Factor, whereas Sale is in a more neutral park at home. Further, Scherzer faces a projected Miami lineup that owns a slate-high .309 SO/AB rate, whereas Sale faces a projected Cleveland lineup that has a slate-low .184 SO/AB rate. They’re literally on the opposite ends of the Model in that regard, and thus Scherzer’s slate-high 9.9 K Prediction bests Sale’s 7.0 mark. As you might expect, pitchers who have had a K Prediction as high as Scherzer’s have historically crushed value, averaging 45.79 FanDuel points and a +10.18 Plus/Minus with a 73.2 percent Consistency Rating. That’s hard to fade.
That said, this is all public data and Scherzer will likely be higher-owned and the chalk of the slate. We have Scherzer and Sale listed for similar ownership ranges right now on DraftKings (Scherzer is a bit higher on FanDuel), but that could be exaggerated if users covet strikeout upside and decide to fade Coors Field. Scherzer could be worth a fade even with his high strikeout upside because of his awful recent Statcast data; Sale dominates him in that regard:
- Scherzer: 254-foot batted ball distance, 96 mile per hour exit velocity, 48 percent hard hit rate
- Sale: 210-foot batted ball distance, 87 mile per hour exit velocity, 34 percent hard hit rate
This dynamic will likely be a huge factor in determining who wins guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) tonight. Take a stand and good luck.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various buy-in levels after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Marcus Stroman is priced way down at $8,500 on FanDuel, where he has a massive 98 percent Bargain Rating; he’s the third-highest priced pitcher on DraftKings at $11,000. He’s coming off a disappointing outing last game in which he scored just 17.0 FanDuel points against the Athletics and made it only 4.2 innings. That said, he has a +30 Recent Batted Ball Luck, and he’s been a little unlucky. Over his last three games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 166 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 11 percent, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. Those are elite marks, and he has a nice matchup today against a Chicago White Sox team that ranks 29th in the league with a splits-adjusted .304 team wOBA. They also have a top-10 strikeout rate (22.7 percent) against right-handed pitchers, and Stroman’s 6.7 K Prediction today is fine at his FanDuel price tag even though his 7.998 past-year SO/9 isn’t amazing. Further, he’s currently the biggest favorite on the slate with -206 moneyline odds.
Still, it’s difficult to find a place to use Stroman tonight. The most obvious place is cash games on FanDuel, but that would require fading Sale and Scherzer. He lacks the profile of an elite GPP play because of his low SO/9, but he’s too expensive on DraftKings to roster as an SP2 in cash games. As such, he will likely be a contrarian option today despite the excellent data points and matchup.
Jon Lester could be considered a value on DraftKings, where he’s reasonably priced at $9,500 and nearly $4,000 cheaper than Scherzer and Sale. He’s currently the highest-rated pitcher in the DraftKings Bales Model, mostly due to his combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He’s facing an Arizona team that has struggled against lefties this season, as evidenced by their splits-adjusted .294 team wOBA. They have struck out at a top-five rate with a 25.5 percent strikeout mark, and Lester thus has a high 8.5 K Prediction — the second-best mark in the slate. Further, he’s been excellent over his last three games: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 197 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 22 percent. The Diamondbacks are currently implied for just 3.7 runs, which is the third-lowest mark in the slate. Lester could be a moderately popular SP2 option to pair alongside a stud and cheap bats in GPPs.
Fastballs
Jimmy Nelson: He’s averaged an impressive +9.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts, and he’s been particularly solid of late. Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 187 feet and a fly ball rate of 22 percent. He’s only $7,800 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 78 percent Bargain Rating.
Carlos Martinez: He’s been bad lately but is in a high-upside spot against the Brewers, whose projected lineup owns a high .286 strikeout rate — the second-highest mark in the slate. Martinez’s 8.0 K Prediction is third in the slate.
Aaron Nola: He faces an Angels team that doesn’t strike out very much, but it’s hard to discount this recent performance:
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Orioles, but Jay Persson covered them today in his MLB Pro Model Stacks piece. Instead, let’s pivot to a New York Mets stack:
This is a difficult MLB slate; along with all of the high-priced stud pitchers, we have a Coors Field dynamic. The Mets are the visiting team and currently implied for 6.0 runs; the Rockies are implied for a slate-high 6.7 runs. No surprise, these batters are expensive. The stack above costs $24,500, which means that there’s only $5,100 per player remaining to fill out the rest of the roster. Taking Sale with this fivesome puts it at $3,125 per player remaining, and that’s before selecting a second pitcher. You’ll likely have to choose between Sale/Scherzer and Coors Field, and historically the public has chosen the former. That is intriguing in GPPs, especially since the Mets are facing a pitcher in Jeff Hoffman who has an awful 1.529 past-year WHIP and has allowed 17 runs over his last three starts.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for today’s main slate:
The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.8 runs — the third-highest mark in the slate — and could be somewhat contrarian given the slate dynamics. They have a nice matchup against White Sox righty Mike Pelfrey, who has allowed a 91 MPH exit velocity over his last two starts. Some of these Blue Jays are crushing the ball right now, most notably projected cleanup hitter Justin Smoak, who has a 248-foot batted ball distance, 94 MPH exit velocity, and 52 percent hard hit rate over his last 15 games. He’s a no-splits hitter over the last year and has a nice .263 ISO mark against righties. At the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, the Blue Jays could put up some runs.
Batters
Chris Davis went 0-4 last night against the Royals but is still a scary fade given his recent Statcast data: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 60 percent. He’s always in play against a righty — he owns a past-year .284 ISO against them — and he gets a pitcher in Ian Kennedy who has horrible Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 235 feet and an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour. Davis is currently projected for just two to four percent ownership given the slate dynamics.
Derek Fisher — the 23-year-old Astro, not the basketball player — is projected to bat leadoff for a Houston squad currently implied for a low 4.3 runs. They have a tough matchup against Tampa righty Chris Archer, who has gone for 10, 11, and nine strikeouts over his last three games. However, Houston is a dangerous offense every night, and Archer has ominous Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 221 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 43 percent. Fisher went 3-for-5 last night with a home run, and he could keep things rolling again tonight at low ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
