The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday offers a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 12:05 pm ET and a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three players priced above $9,000 on FanDuel today, headlined by Nationals stud Max Scherzer:
Scherzer is the only of these three guys in the early slate, and he should be massively owned. Out of the 16 teams playing today, only two are currently implied for less than 4.0 runs: The Athletics at 3.9 and the Brewers — Scherzer’s opponent — at 3.1 runs. Because the Nationals are implied for 5.0 runs themselves, Scherzer is a gargantuan -250 moneyline favorite. He struggled last outing, but that was against a great Diamondbacks offense at Chase Field; he got nine strikeouts across just five innings but also allowed eight hits, three home runs (to the first three batters of the game), and five earned runs. As a result, his Statcast data isn’t encouraging: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 252 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent.
Despite the poor outing last game, he’s still posted a robust +13.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 starts. He is arguably one of the two best pitchers in the league this year. It will be tough to fade him, especially considering he’s pitching in a three-game slate and has a day-high 9.6 K Prediction to go along with elite Vegas data.
Jon Lester is a left-handed pitcher facing the Chicago White Sox, which was an auto-fade situation even just a month ago. The White Sox have had extreme splits versus righties and lefties all year; in April, May, and June, left-handed pitchers got absolutely smashed by Chicago (per the MLB Trends tool):
But in July that trend has severely reversed:
Over the last month, left-handed pitchers have averaged 39.0 FanDuel points and a +9.59 Plus/Minus with a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating against the White Sox. That’s a positive sign for Lester, as is his Vegas data: His opponent implied run total of 4.0 runs, while not historically great, is one of the best marks on the slate. The Cubs are implied for 6.1 runs, and Lester is thus a huge -225 moneyline favorite. Lester has been excellent over his last two games — he’s posted 58.0 and 46.0 FanDuel points against the Cardinals and Braves — and his Statcast data is right in line with that: During that same span, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 187 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 24 percent. His 7.3 K Prediction is the third-highest mark in the main slate. All of those data points make Lester a likely chalky pitcher, and indeed we project him for slate-high ownership at 21-25 percent on FanDuel.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various buy-in levels after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Amazingly, Scherzer and Lester are not the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model today. That distinction belongs to Toronto righty Marcus Stroman, who is a little priced up at $11,500 on DraftKings but affordable on FanDuel at $8,600. He faces an Athletics team that ranks 23rd this season with a .312 team wOBA and is currently implied for a slate-low 3.9 runs. He’s coming off two solid games at Cleveland and Boston in which he went 14.1 innings and allowed a single run. Part of the reason he’s the highest-rated pitcher is his elite recent Statcast data: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 158 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 12 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. He’s one of the premier cash-game options in the main slate, but he could be worth a fade in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially since his 6.5 K Prediction is merely average today.
After Scherzer, Lester, and Stroman, things get pretty dicey. Perhaps two pitchers cheap enough to take some shots on as SP2s in tournaments are Yankees lefty CC Sabathia and Cardinals righty Luke Weaver. They both have high opponent implied team totals of 4.4 and 4.6, but at least they have some potential upside. Their K Predictions of 6.6 and 7.8 are solid in this slate, especially for pitching options that cost just $7,700 and $6,400 on DraftKings. Weaver is making his first start of the season and thus has no recent Statcast data; I haven’t heard anything about a pitch count, but that could be a concern. Sabathia does have recent Statcast data, and it’s actually good: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 163 feet, an exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 30 percent, and a hard hit rate of just 16 percent. These guys have brutal matchups against Rays and Diamondbacks squads that have high team ISOs of .184 and .187, but no pitcher is in a safe spot today other than the studs. Target potential high-strikeout options instead.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He has a scary matchup against a powerful Yankees offense currently implied for 4.6 runs, but he does own the main slate’s highest K Prediction at 8.0. He should be a contrarian option in tournaments given his high price tag and matchup.
Robert Stephenson: The 24-year-old disappointed in his first start this year, going 5.1 innings and allowing five runs to the Marlins. That said, he owns a 10.311 SO/9 rate over the last year, is getting the Marlins this time in a pitcher’s park in Miami, and costs just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) in the early slate currently belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
They’re at home in a hitter’s park and get Oakland lefty Sean Manaea, who has concerning recent Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 52 percent. That’s dangerous news, especially against someone like cleanup hitter Justin Smoak, who has averaged a batted ball distance of 258 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 58 percent over his last 13 games. He’s expensive at $5,300 on DraftKings, and this stack will be hard to fit in with Scherzer on the early slate, but there’s no denying their massive upside in this matchup.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allowa six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for today’s main slate:
The Cardinals are the highest-rated six-man stack in the main slate, and they could be a somewhat contrarian option considering their 4.5 implied run total is exactly average in this slate currently. That’s intriguing, especially since they boast some hot hitters. Tommy Pham has averaged a +5.23 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
His Statcast data suggests that hasn’t been a fluke: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 238 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 52 percent.
Batters
Let’s talk about some recently unlucky batters using our proprietary Recent Batted Ball Luck metric. Here’s the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
One recently unlucky player is Mets outfielder Jay Bruce, who is projected to hit cleanup today. He’s averaged a poor -1.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 30 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games . . .
. . . but he has nice Statcast data nonetheless: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 245 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 45 percent, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. He’s in a tough spot in a pitcher’s park in San Diego, but that and his recent fantasy production should make him a contrarian option in the main slate. That’s intriguing for a cleanup hitter with a .266 ISO on the correct side of his splits today.
Yadier Molina is another guy with a high +42 Recent BBL over his last 11 games. He’s posted a batted ball distance of 233 feet during that time, and he might be on the upswing: He’s gone for double-digit DraftKings points over his last three games thanks to six total hits. He’s projected to bat fifth for the Cardinals and is a part of the potentially contrarian stack above. Leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter, the highest-rated hitter in the Bales Model for the main slate, also owns a +28 Recent BBL. The Cardinals could be an undervalued stack worth pursuing in tournaments.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
