The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday presents a 12-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Five pitchers cost at least $9,000 on DraftKings, and three of them are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel. The four most-expensive pitchers have Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent on FanDuel:
Jacob deGrom is the premier ace on the slate, leading all pitchers in salary, K Prediction, Pro Trends, and opponent implied run total. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in seven straight starts and allowed no more than one run in six of those outings. He also receives the best matchup for a pitcher: He’s facing an anemic Padres offense against whom right-handed pitchers have averaged a league-high +3.97 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 10.0 percent Upside this season (per our Trends tool). That number is a little skewed by April data, as right-handed pitchers averaged an astronomical +10.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Padres during that month. That said, righties have averaged a +1.55 Plus/Minus against them since the beginning of May, which is still solid and the third-highest mark over that span.
When deGrom has pitched a night road game, he’s become deFade:
deGrom has historically struggled on the road, but does that matter against the Padres in such a pitcher-friendly environment? deGrom has started to course-correct this season, averaging a positive Plus/Minus and providing value half the time in road starts. The Padres are implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), yet they’ve scored at least four runs in 10 straight games. Five of the hitters in the projected Padres lineup all have positive recent batted ball distance differentials, three of whom have averaged a fly ball rate of at least 51 percent and an exit velocity of at least 92 miles per hour.
deGrom costs a career-high $13,400 on DraftKings, and he’s had a K Prediction as high as today’s mark only twice according to our database. Favored starters with similar K Predictions and Park Factors have historically provided exceptional value, averaging a +3.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 61.9 percent Consistency Rating. Pitchers facing the Padres this season have recorded league-high 19.4 percent DraftKings GPP ownership, as well as a 62 percent Consistency Rating. deGrom profiles as the optimal cash-game option, and he’s likely to be the highest-owned pitcher in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) because of the favorable Vegas data and the Padres’ slate-low 0.291 wOBA and slate-high 0.320 SO/AB rate. Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Zack Greinke is the second-most expensive pitcher, and he’s been sensational at home this season:
He’s recorded an 11.28 K/9 rate at Chase Field this season, the seventh-highest home strikeout rate. The Braves rank in the bottom third in the league in wOBA and walk rate against right-handers this season, and Greinke has the second-highest moneyline odds (-195) on the slate.
Greinke claims a modest 6.0 K Prediction, but he has three games of at least 11 strikeouts this season and has pitched into the sixth inning in 14 of 19 outings. The step down from deGrom to Greinke results in a $1,100 savings on FanDuel and a $1,500 savings on DraftKings. However, Greinke is undercut in salary by Brad Peacock, who leads all pitchers on the slate with an 11.273 SO/9 rate, which could result in Greinke receiving less than his usual 22.9 percent DraftKings GPP home ownership. He hasn’t recorded fewer than 19.65 DraftKings points at home since the first start of the season, a mark deGrom has dipped below in two of his last three outings. Greinke doesn’t possess deGrom’s pristine matchup or slate-leading K Prediction, but his home numbers surpass deGrom’s road data.
Since joining the rotation on May 22nd, Peacock has ranked behind only Gerrit Cole, who is also an option on this slate, in soft contact rate allowed. Peacock is also the only other pitcher with a K Prediction of at least 8.0, and he’s been priced up to a career-high $11,500 on DraftKings. Peacock has exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one start this season, and he’s notched at least seven strikeouts in all but two starts. Right-handed pitchers facing the Phillies since the beginning of May have averaged a league-best +2.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus; the Phillies have registered the second-lowest wOBA and ISO against righties during that span.
The weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park are slightly concerning, and it’s the game with the highest chance of precipitation. If the report prior to the game reduces the chance of an in-game delay, Peacock could challenge for cash-game consideration on FanDuel at $8,900. On DraftKings, his higher salary could depress his GPP ownership, which is intriguing given his high K Prediction and potential for limited ownership due to deGrom’s presence and the inauspicious forecast.
Value
Hyun-jin Ryu is the only pitcher priced below $8,700 on FanDuel and $9,900 on DraftKings facing a team implied to score less than 4.1 runs. He leads the slate with -233 moneyline odds, and he’s been out of the Dodgers rotation since June 28th due to a left foot issue. Ryu failed to pitch more than 5.2 innings in his last four starts, but since Clayton Kershaw was removed from Sunday’s extra-inning game after 2.0 innings, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts may extend Ryu’s leash further than anticipated. Ryu isn’t a prototypical cash-game option, especially with a 38.5 percent Consistency Rating this season, but seven of the last nine left-handers to face the Twins have exceeded salary-based expectations. As far as SP2s go, Ryu may have the highest floor, which speaks more to the rest of the options than it does to Ryu.
Francisco Liriano is worth monitoring for GPPs. The Athletics have the third-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest wOBA against left-hander pitchers this season. Liriano has the fifth-highest K Prediction, and his salary has dwindled to $5,800 on DraftKings. However, he’s pitching on three days rest and has accumulated a single DraftKings point in his last two starts combined, failing to pitch more than 2.0 innings in both occasions. The last time Liriano faced the Athletics, he provided 11.05 DraftKings points, which is 0.37 points below today’s salary-based expectation. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and opponent implied run totals have averaged 13.57 DraftKings points, and, in Liriano’s case, he’s averaged a +9.34 DraftKings Plus/Minus in six such instances.
Fastballs
Gerrit Cole: The Giants have the lowest wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers this season, but their modest strikeout rate has culminated in a weak 5.5 K Prediction for Cole. Among pitchers with at least two starts over the past 15 days, Cole has a slate-best 60 percent ground ball rate and 191-foot batted ball distance allowed.
James Paxton: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight starts, allowing no more than three runs in each outing and recording at least seven strikeouts five times during that span. Even though the Red Sox have the sixth-highest wOBA and lowest strikeout rate against left-handers, the Astros have similar marks, and Paxton still recorded 49.0 FanDuel points against them in his last outing.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rays, a team already covered by Justin Bailey in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks article. The second-highest rated stack is a conventional 1-2-3-4-5-6 Tigers combination:
The Tigers are currently implied to score 0.3 more runs than the Rays, and their six-man stack costs $800 less than the top-rated Rays configuration. There are four teams implied for a higher team total, which could diminish the ownership for this Tigers stack. The wind is projected to blow 12 miles per hour toward right field, which may offer a distinct advantage to lefty and switch hitters Alex Avila and Victor Martinez. Avila has one hit in his last 22 at-bats and three extra-base hits in his last 75 at-bats, a slump that has helped reduce his salary to $6,000. Martinez, on the other hand, has a +41 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark, and he’s reached base in 10 consecutive games. Royals righty Jason Hammel has allowed 11 stolen bases this season, and Justin Upton has swiped four bags this month while averaging a team-best 66 percent Consistency Rating.
The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rays account for the highest-rated DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model, and all three were already analyzed. The Indians have the next highest-rated DraftKings stack, and they’re facing a pitcher in Tim Adleman who has allowed at least one home run in 10 straight starts:
The Indians are presently implied to score 5.6 runs, the third-highest mark in the slate, and every hitter in the projected lineup has at least five Pro Trends. The conditions aren’t perfect for hitters because the wind is projected to blow 15 miles per hour toward the first base dugout, but the plethora of left-handed and switch hitters in the Indians lineup accentuates Adleman’s vulnerability: His K/9 rate is much lower against lefties (5.79) compared to righties (10.49) this season, and he’s allowed a 2.79 HR/9 rate and 51.2 percent fly ball rate against lefties. Switch and left-handed hitters have averaged a +2.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus against Adleman this season. Michael Brantley leads the fivesome with a 52 percent Consistency Rating over the past month, Jose Ramirez has cultivated a 50 percent recent fly ball rate, and Francisco Lindor leads the team with nine Pro Trends.
Batters
Matt Cain and Cole have allowed a combined 23 steals this seasons, and they oppose each other at AT&T Park. Starling Marte and Eduardo Nunez lead each team in SB/G over the past 12 months, and Marte has three stolen bases in his last three games. He’s also reached base in every game since returning from suspension, and Nunez has recorded 14 hits in nine games since returning from the disabled list. Neither of their teams are presently implied to score more than 4.4 runs, reducing their appeal to GPP formats for their potential stolen base upside. Marte costs $200 less than Nunez on FanDuel and $800 more on DraftKings.
Freddie Freeman has averaged 20.88 FanDuel points in 17 games at Chase Field, and he leads all hitters on the slate with a .487 wOBA and .735 slugging percentage. Since stacking against Greinke probably won’t be a common choice, selectively choosing one or two Braves hitters — like Freeman — should allow you the freedom to stay mostly chalk in the rest of your lineup. Freeman’s salary has actually increased to its normal range of $4,900 on DraftKings after three straight games below $4,400, and his dual-position eligibility on DraftKings allows flexibility when constructing lineups.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
