We’re always trying our best to predict ownership levels in GPPs…with ranging levels of success. In this series, I’m going to take a look at a GPP slate that I found interesting within the past few days and try to figure out what led to the ownership levels being what they are using our models. The numbers are all pulled from FanDuel’s $5 Layup.

There are a few columns that require explaining in the screenshots below…

TOTAL: I attempt to assign each player a total GPP score. This weighs ownership, price, and fantasy points scored. I weigh the most expensive salaries a little heavier in the calculations because a $10k player going 6x value is much more valuable than a $4.5k player doing so, in my opinion.

Points: Fantasy points scored

Value: Fantasy points/salary

Pos Rank: The player’s rank within their position on that day using Phan’s Model

The rest of the fields are pulled directly from Player Models
If you find the images hard to read, click on them to open a larger version in a new window.

Let’s get started. Today, I’m going to look at the $5 GPP on FanDuel on 12/29 (five games).

Point Guard

Coincidentally, the last time I did an article like this, I was looking at a four-game slate and the Thunder were one of the teams in action. On that night, Westbrook was 46.8% owned against the Hawks and last night, he was 47.4% owned against Milwaukee. In both instances, Westbrook was in a pretty severe pace-down situation and facing an opponent who is a below-average matchup for point guards.

It’s pretty amazing that Westbrook can command such a high ownership percentage on a short slate with Durant healthy and in a below average matchup, considering his price. In both instances, he ended up near the middle of the pack when looking at the GPP rating system I use. Mike Conley, Reggie Jackson, and Jeff Teague followed Westbrook in ownership and they were the other “safe” names on this slate.

People who took a chance at point guard were rewarded – Michael Carter-Williams, Ty Lawson, and Mario Chalmers finished with the best scores after factoring ownership, price, and production. Indeed, these three appeared on many of the top finishers in this tournament. All three of these players are in timeshare situations now that Bayless has returned for the Bucks, but all three are also capable of getting hot.

In hindsight, a lot of people are probably kicking themselves over Ty Lawson. His minutes had been on the rise for several games and we all know with his upside, he has the potential to crush his currently cheap price tag. It was pretty hard to see MCW’s 45 point night coming although in hindsight, his +2.9 pace differential and +1.3 Opponent Plus/Minus were clues.

On a shorter slate when the Thunder are playing, it looks like people are going to roster Westbrook no matter what. He’s a great player, but given his always expensive price point, I don’t think he is going to generally be among the best GPP plays, particularly while Durant is healthy.

 

Shooting Guard

Shooting guard was an interesting position last night. Almost half of the field was on Will Barton, and with good reason. He had a pretty nice night, scoring 39.9 fantasy points, but I don’t necessarily think he was one of the top GPP plays. Giannis and Wade each came with similar salaries and finished with similar fantasy scores.

Knowing that I could have had either Wade or Giannis at 8% ownership, I’d probably take my chances there more often than not. Will Barton is obviously awesome, but a lot of his fantasy production comes from scoring and sometimes, your shot will just not be falling. Foul trouble, game flow, and injury risk are other things that, while not overly likely for Barton, could bury a large portion of the field if they come into play. Fading Barton right now seems scary, but even on a night where he posted a good line, he really didn’t give you much of an advantage over similarly priced options at the same position without even factoring in own%.

 

Small Forward

The debate for most people at small forward on this five game slate was which star(s) to roster between Carmelo, Durant, and LeBron. I thought Carmelo had a chance to go underowned due to being priced a tier below Durant and LeBron at the moment, but he was actually owned on 1% more teams than LeBron was.

Durant eclipsed both Carmelo and LeBron at 37.7% ownership. The pace, Vegas, and Opponent Plus/Minus numbers more or less evened out yesterday between Durant and LeBron, but LeBron was coming off two below-average games, which may have made the difference for some. James was playing in his fourth game in five nights, but I’m not sure to what degree the average DFS GPP entrant keeps track of that kind of stuff. Personally, I did consider it, but I wasn’t as worried since LeBron stood to benefit from Kyrie’s absence. It turned out to be basically a wash, with each player scoring 45.2 fantasy points.

Kris Middleton led the way, scoring 46.5 points against Oklahoma City. His price, ownership, Opponent Plus/Minus, and PaceD were all reasonable-to-good and he turned out being one of the best GPP plays on the board. He outscored the elite options while costing around $4k less. Many of the top finishers rostered Middleton.

 

Power Forward

John Henson was questionable until after lineups had locked at 7:30 p.m. ET last night. He ended up playing and having his best game in the month of December. I doubt his ownership numbers would have been all that much higher if he had been declared active ahead of time, but they certainly would have been up a little bit. Derrick Williams also randomly had a decent game, but the majority of the top teams had some combination of Paul Millsap, Clint Capela, and Ersan Ilyasova.

Millsap really should have been owned by more teams. In my opinion, he was the clear top play at the position all day with a favorable matchup against Houston and he’s been playing well lately. I think this is probably more a function of people reaching for the most expensive players (Durant, Westbrook, James) and not having the money to pay for Millsap than anything else. There wasn’t even really a clear value play at the position – Capela was probably the closest thing to one. I always take a hard look at the players priced in that second tier because I think people will feel obligated to reach for the most expensive overall options on a short slate in FanDuel GPPs.

 

Center

The center position was really setup for GPP players yesterday. The most highly owned player, Andre Drummond, was probably the worst play at the position and there were several great alternatives to pick from. Over half of the “rosterable” options exceeded 6x their salary and Dwight Howard and Al Horford both exceeded 50 fantasy points.

For me, I find center to be the easiest position to go contrarian in GPPs. While you can pick two players at every other position on FanDuel, you only get one center. That means, while each person is rostering their second favorite play at the guard and forward slots, players are not rostering their second favorite center. Yesterday, only two players were owned in more than 8% of the lineups in this GPP. You don’t even really have to be THAT contrarian to be contrarian at center.

 

Closing Observations

Here were the most highly owned players at each position:

PG Westbrook
SG Barton
SF J Green
PF Porzingis
C Drummond

Using my rating system, which weighs production, cost, and ownership, the top overall plays are listed below. As mentioned above, it was a great night to fade the chalk at center. Three Bucks appeared in the top seven overall plays. Some may have been scared off of Middleton due to the 13.5 spread, but Milwaukee ended up scoring 123 points while keeping up with Oklahoma City and provided several great DFS plays along the way.