The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Despite the massive slate, there are only three pitchers today priced at $9,000 or above on FanDuel, headlined by Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw:
Kershaw has been brilliant as usual this season, ranking third among all pitchers with 3.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and a 2.74 xFIP. He’s been particularly studly of late, going for between 64.0 and 70.0 FanDuel points over his last three games; he’s accumulated 36 strikeouts across 23 innings during that stretch.
As expected, his recent Statcast data is also solid: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 201 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 21 percent. He’s now accumulated a robust +12.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 outings with a 70 percent Consistency Rating, which is especially impressive considering he’s consistently above $12,000.
Given the other options, he’s likely to be the uber-chalk. Nevertheless, he’s in a hitter’s park in Chicago facing a White Sox team that has extreme splits against left-handed pitchers in 2017. They rank 25th in the league with a .305 team wOBA against righties and fifth with a .343 wOBA against lefties. That said, they’ve regressed lately; they were first in wOBA against LHP by a mile even just two weeks ago. In July, they’ve faced three lefties in James Paxton, Kyle Freeland, and Cole Hamels; those guys dominated, posting an average of 51.0 FanDuel points and a +22.34 Plus/Minus (per the MLB Trends tool):
The whole-season sample of the White Sox versus lefties is still important, so it’s not as if Kershaw is in the clear. That said, Kershaw is a significantly better pitcher than Paxton, Freeland, and Hamels, and he’s in excellent form. Vegas bettors certainly believe in him: The White Sox are currently implied for 3.0 runs — 0.8 runs less than any other team today — and Kershaw is a massive -309 moneyline favorite. Of the 26,735 FanDuel starting pitchers since 2012, only 44 have hit the -300 moneyline mark. That cohort has crushed, averaging 44.30 FanDuel points and a +7.26 Plus/Minus, and Kershaw himself has been that heavy of a favorite 14 times:
Expanding the trend to include opponent run total and a wider range for moneyline odds in case Kershaw’s line moves still results in a high 72.2 percent Consistency mark.
And we’ve said nothing of Kershaw’s 8.4 K Prediction, which is the third-highest mark of the day. He should easily be the highest-owned player in tonight’s slate, and it’s difficult to justify a fade. Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Brad Peacock is a better value at $9,200 on FanDuel, where he has a high 87 percent Bargain Rating, but unfortunately that’s not that helpful given that you can roster only one pitcher. He’s pricey on DraftKings at $10,300, and rostering both him and Kershaw together gives an average of just $3,213 per position player left. For the most part, users will have to choose between Peacock and Kershaw, which will drive down the ownership of the former.
And that’s somewhat intriguing, as Peacock is not in a bad spot: He’s facing the Mariners, who are currently implied for ‘only’ 4.1 runs; he’s the second-largest favorite of the day at -176. He’s posted an impressive +5.34 Plus/Minus with an 89 percent Consistency Rating over his last nine games . . .
. . . and he owns impressive Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of just 87 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. He has a 7.2 K Prediction, which is a top-five mark in the slate, and his 11.250 SO/9 mark over the past year gestures toward his strikeout upside. It could be wise to force in both Kershaw and Peacock in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) and pair them with cheaper stacks.
Values
Because of Peacock’s high price tag on DraftKings, the popular SP2 option alongside Kershaw will likely be Indians righty Mike Clevinger, who is the only pitcher other than Kershaw with an opponent implied total below 4.0. He’s facing the San Francisco Giants, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs and remain offensively awful: They rank dead last in the league with a .292 team wOBA. Clevinger is on a bit of a heater lately, averaging a +5.22 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency, and he’s been especially good over his last three games, going for at least 22.5 DraftKings points in each affair. His Statcast data includes only his most recent game, and it’s a bit mixed: In that start, he allowed a low batted ball distance of 204 feet but also a high exit velocity of 91 miles per hour.
Still, those marks may not matter against the Giants, especially in San Francisco, where he carries a high 92 Park Factor. Clevinger has a 6.7 K Prediction, which ranks sixth in the slate, and his $9,100 price tag gives a little more wiggle room for batters than Peacock’s salary.
With every other pitcher on the slate, you’ll have to choose between Vegas data or strikeout upside. For example, Ivan Nova is facing the Brewers, who are currently implied for 4.1 runs, but he has a low K Prediction of 5.8. On the other hand, Blake Snell is facing the Athletics, who are currently implied for 4.5 runs, but he has a high K Prediction of 8.3. Of the two, Snell is much cheaper at $6,600 on DraftKings, and he allowed a nice 89 mile per hour exit velocity in his last start against the Chicago Cubs. There’s no safe thing outside of Kershaw today, so make sure to leverage our ownership projections to build GPP lineups.
Fastballs
Dinelson Lamet: He’s in the worst possible position a pitcher can be in at Coors Field and has the highest opponent run total of the day at 6.3. That said, his 9.2 K Prediction is the highest of the day as well. If you look up “boom-or-bust” in the dictionary, it’s a picture of Lamet.
Robbie Ray: He’s similar to Lamet although much less extreme. His 8.4 K Prediction — tied with Kershaw’s — is the second-highest mark of the day behind Lamet’s, but his 4.4 opponent implied run total against the Reds is also significantly lower. That said, his $11,200 price tag is $4,200 higher. He’ll likely be low-owned given his salary.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) comes from the Colorado Rockies at home, which is likely no surprise:
Per the MLB Trends tool, batters at Coors Field in the top five batting spots have done well with similar implied run totals:
That said, they’re also incredibly expensive, which is problematic today given Kershaw’s form and price tag. This five-man stack costs $25,100, which means even if you fill out the other three batters with the cheapest projected batters you have just $9,000 per pitcher to use. Slotting in Kershaw at $14,000 gives just $4,000 for the other slot, and the cheapest guy today is Miguel Gonzalez at $4,500. It is literally impossible to roster both Kershaw and the top-five Rockies bats. That means that one will probably have lower ownership than expected.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. They allow six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for the main slate:
After the Rockies, the Washington Nationals own the highest-rated stack, which is a little surprising considering they’re currently implied for just 4.5 runs — tied for the 21st-highest mark in the slate. That said, the Nationals always have upside: They trail only the Astros with their .347 team wOBA in 2017. They face Angels righty Jesse Chavez, who has a high 1.872 HR/9 allowed mark over the past year and was absolutely brutal in his last start in terms of Statcast data. In that game, he allowed a batted ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 62 percent. Those marks are death against this talented Nationals offense.
Batters
George Springer is on the wrong side of his splits against a right-handed pitcher — he has a -0.055 wOBA and -0.097 ISO differential — but he is still the highest-rated batter in the Bales Model for DraftKings. He’s projected to bat leadoff today for an Astros team implied for 5.5 runs against Seattle righty Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed quite a few home runs this season:
In his last game, he allowed a batted ball distance of 228 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. Those are dangerous marks against Springer, who has averaged a distance of 235 feet and an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour over his last 10 games.
Nick Castellanos has crushed the ball lately, posting an average batted ball distance of 246 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent over his last 10 games. He’s projected to bat second for a Tigers team currently implied for 5.4 runs against Royals lefty Travis Wood, who has a terrible 1.987 WHIP over the past year.
Finally, one guy who has good Statcast data but poor fantasy production lately is Texas second baseman Rougned Odor: He’s averaged a -0.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but his Statcast data is much better. Over that same time period, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 236 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 48 percent. Thus, he has a high Recent Batted Ball Luck of +55. He’s also on the correct side of his splits against a righty, as evidenced by his +.168 ISO differential.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
