Royal Birkdale, located on the northwest coast of Southport, England, will host The Open Championship (the British Open) for the 10th time. The course has been around since Jesus was walking the earth — actually, since 1889, but you get the point. The current layout began with an extensive redesign in 1922 by Fred Hawtree and J.H. Taylor. Hawtree was a well-known course architect, and Taylor won the Open Championship five times between 1894 and 1913. The two set out to design a course that was tough but fair. Since then, Birkdale has gained the reputation of being one of the fairest courses in The Open rotation. The tight fairways reward the accurate ball-striker as much as they penalize those prone to wild shots.
After the 1961 Open, extensive changes were made to the course and clubhouse, mostly to accommodate the growing number of fans that wanted to be on the course to watch events like The Open Championship. The course underwent more renovations in 1991 after hosting The Open; all 18 greens were dug up and completely redesigned.
The Course
Because The Open is played at a rotation of 14 different courses, this week’s course breakdown will be different from the typical edition. Let’s start with what we know: Royal Birkdale is a 7,156-yard Par 70 course with two Par 5s (both on the back nine) and four Par 3s.
Holes To Be Aware Of
The first hole at Royal Birkdale is known as one of the most demanding opening holes at all of The Open’s courses. In 2008, the 448-yard Par 4 played at an average of 4.515 strokes and allowed only 23 birdies or better during the entire tournament (per theopen.com). Nervous golfers with first tee jitters who go way right can be penalized by the out-of-bounds up the entire right side. This hole has played as the second-toughest hole in each of the last two Open Championships. Having a golfer on your roster get to the second hole at even par should be considered a win.
The fifth hole surrendered 61 birdies or better in 2008 and played at an average of 4.147 strokes. The 346-yard Par 4 is a dogleg right that will tempt the aggressive, long hitters to try and cut the corner and go at the green. Safer players will be satisfied taking an iron off the tee and leaving themselves a wedge into a green protected by seven bunkers. You’ll want your golfers to make a birdie here.
The 499-yard Par 4 sixth hole is a beast: It’s been the toughest hole on the course in each of the last two Opens played here at Royal Birkdale. In 2008 it yielded only 10 birdies and played at an ugly average of 4.765 strokes.
Another in a series of doglegs, the 458-yard Par 4 eighth hole surrendered 46 birdies and played at an average of 4.134 strokes in 2008. Par is great, a birdie is even better, but dropping a shot on this relatively benign hole could prove costly to players on your roster.
The back nine begins with what played as the fourth-toughest hole in 2008: the 402-yard Par 4 10th. While the hole is not long by any means, this dogleg requires accurate placement off the tee. It gave up 29 birdies or better in 2008 while playing at an average of 4.419 strokes.
The short 183-yard Par 3 12th is one of the more memorable holes on the course. Deep bunkers and wild grass guard the green, and the wind in 2008 gave many players problems with club selection. The hole allowed 31 birdies or better in 2008 and played at an average of 3.272 strokes.
Players won’t get their first crack at a Par 5 until they reach the 542-yard 15th hole. This hole can make or break a player’s round: In 2008, it surrendered 92 birdies and one eagle but also enticed 85 bogeys and 23 double-bogeys or worse.
Coming home, the 567-yard Par 5 17th hole was the easiest hole on the course, playing at an average of 4.747 strokes. There have been minor changes to the location of a green-side bunker and the green itself since the 2008 championship, but there is no reason to think the hole will become suddenly unscorable. In 2008, it yielded a whopping 201 birdies or better and will likely be the site of many eagle opportunities this week.
Metrics To Remember (From Last Year’s Open)
For this week’s breakdown, we will examine the metrics produced at last year’s British Open, played at Royal Troon. As our baseline: All courses on both the PGA and European Tours have allowed an average of 50.34 DraftKings points with a -1.01 Plus/Minus and 48.3 percent Consistency Rating (per our PGA Trends tool). Last year, Royal Troon allowed 37.89 DraftKings points with a -11.85 Plus/Minus and 29.2 percent Consistency Rating.
Here is how the top quintile of golfers in various metrics did (in Plus/Minus values) at last year’s British Open:
Long-Term Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: -6.61
- Greens in Regulation (GIR): -10.56
- Driving Distance (DD): -5.43
- Driving Accuracy (DA): -4.98
- Scrambling (SC): -8.80
- Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): -2.03
Obviously, all of these metrics are terribly negative, but Adj Bird Avg, DA, DD, and Adj Rd Score are much higher than the baseline Plus/Minus — especially Adj Bird Avg, which is +9.82 higher. As always, leveraging consistent birdie-makers will be important this week, especially with the birdie-heavy DraftKings scoring.
Recent Metrics
The biggest takeaways from recent metrics is how much more beneficial Recent GIR has been compared to LT GIR and the huge +11.84 Plus/Minus difference Recent DA provides compared to the baseline.
Here’s how the top 20 percent of golfers in recent metrics performed:
- Adj Rd Score: -6.11
- GIR: -4.66
- DD: -10.92
- DA: -0.01
- SC: -7.70
- Adj Bird Avg: -9.50
Humpnostication
Likely to fly under the radar, Soren Kjeldsen posted 70.50 DraftKings points and a +22.50 Plus/Minus in last year’s Open at Royal Troon. Because he missed the cut here in 2008, it’s likely that Kjeldsen’s ownership will be microscopic this week. FantasyLabs provides ownership projections in our Models, and Pro Subscribers will be able to review Soren’s ownership across tournaments of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock. Importantly, three of the last four Champion Golfers of the Year (The Open winners) have been 39 or older, or finished T13 or better the previous week at The Scottish Open. Kjeldsen is currently 42 years old, and he finished T9 at seven-under par at last week’s Scottish Open.
Outside of DFS, he currently has +12,500 moneyline odds in the prop market to win the tournament. While he may not be one of the favorites to win, he clearly fits Hump’s scientific age and Scottish Open requirements. You can check out Kjeldsen’s Vegas Bargain Rating here. It’s The Open, so toss a few Coors Lights on Kjeldsen and thank berate me later.
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