Though there are only five games being featured tonight, the stars have come out to play. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, and Andre Drummond all take to the court tonight, meaning where you spend up is as crucial as ever. Let’s get to the games.
Detroit Pistons (-2) @ New York Knicks
Implied Total: 100.5 – 98.5, O/U: 199.5
Dating back to the 2013-14 season, Andre Drummond has averaged 12 points and 16.3 rebounds in his three trips to Madison Square Garden. Though his salary is $2,200 higher than anyone else at his position, our models have his projected ceiling 12.2 points higher than any other center. Drummond’s salary hasn’t dipped below $9,100 in his last 11 games, but even so, he’s managed to exceed his expectations by +5.87 points in his last 10. It’s a hefty fee considering his salary alone implies his value doesn’t start until he exceeds an implied 41.95 DraftKings points, but note he has received the 1.5 double-double bonus in 27 of his 31 starts this season.
Reggie Jackson leads all point guards with eight Pro Trends as the Knicks have been abysmal at that spot — New York has allowed +2.2 points above expectations to opposing guards. Though he’s exceeded his projections by 59% this month, Jackson also has the second-highest projected floor among point guards tonight with 18.7 points (warranting both cash and tournament considerations).
There is no denying that Kristaps Porzingis has certainly hit some kind of rookie wall but nonetheless has exceeded his expectations by 60% in the last month. He remains best used at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 99%. It also helps that unlike their airtight Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.6 allowed to small forwards, the Pistons Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to power forwards is only -0.2 points.
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets (-3)
Implied Total: 105.5 – 102.5, O/U: 208
On a night where the Thunder and Cavs both play, it’s actually Hawks-Rockets that remains slated with the highest total. Mike Budenholzer’s rotations have essentially taken Atlanta’s backcourt out of cash games (unless you’re considering Jeff Teague with an 84% Bargain Rating at FanDuel), but their frontcourt remains as sturdy as ever. Paul Millsap, for example, has an overall Rating 18.08 higher than any other power forward in our cash model. His projected floor is also 5.6 points higher than that of Kevin Love’s. Al Horford has simply been gifted a matchup against Houston, who allow +2.3 points above expectations to opposing centers.
If you’re one to pivot away from the likely high ownership of the Thunder twosome tonight, James Harden is where that excess salary should be directed. His projection alone is 19.3 points higher than the next shooting guard as the Hawks have allowed +1.6 points above expectations to that position. Though his salary of $10,300 implies he’ll score at least 46.09 points, it’s actually the cheapest Harden has been since December 2. Get it while you can.
And keep on lookout for Terrence Jones’ status. Clint Capela, who has played at least 28 minutes in his last two games, would be in line for even more time if Jones (doubtful) were to sit.
Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies (-5)
Implied Total: 97.5 – 92.5, O/U: 190
With Dwyane Wade and Justise Winslow both questionable, minutes will likely be dispersed between Gerald Green (who has a 91% Bargain Rating at FanDuel) and Tyler Johnson if either were to miss any time. With the Heat implied to score only 92.5 points on the night, it would likely be best to limit your exposure here (barring any sudden lineup changes). Same goes for Hassan Whiteside whose projected ceiling of 53.3 points keeps him in play, but, unfortunately, his 3.1 fouls per 36 minutes on only 28.8 minutes per game creates a volatile situation for his time logged each and every night.
There are typically no surprises with the Grizzlies as they run one of the tighter rotations in the league, but Matt Barnes two-game absence has suddenly hindered that consistency. That bodes well for Mario Chalmers who, in scoring 27.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes in his last outing, took part in the top-six five-man units that Memphis rolled out without Barnes last game.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5)
Implied Total: 108.5 – 95, O/U: 205
Even at $10,500, Russell Westbrook has exceeded his expectations by 70% over the last 10 games. Both he and Kevin Durant (unsurprisingly) remain atop our Tournament Model at their respective positions. With Oklahoma City being favored by 13.5 and this being the second leg of a Bucks back-to-back, note there is real potential for a blowout here. (Yes, that means you can go swimming in the Enes Kanter well one more time.)
The Michael Carter-Williams cash play has come and gone. Prior to last game, MCW had averaged 35.7 minutes and 36.43 DraftKings points in his previous five outings. Upon Jerryd Bayless’ return, Carter-Williams logged only 21 minutes to Bayless’ 26. Though it would not be shocking to see him receive additional time (with this being the first back-to-back Bayless has encountered since returning), heed that our models have Carter-Williams projected to score -2 points fewer than his $6,700 salary implies. It appears interim coach Joe Prunty is more inclined to continue leaning solely on Khris Middleton (who has scored at least 37 DraftKings points in three of his last four games) and Greg Monroe (played at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games), anyways.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) @ Denver Nuggets
Implied Total: 100.3 – 94.3, O/U: 194.5
The Cavaliers are playing their fourth game in five nights. In the second half of their first back-to-back stint, you might recall the Trailblazers winning by 29 as each Portland starter finished with a Plus/Minus of at least +23. LeBron is generally as safe as they come in cash games, but this one has me startled. Despite exceeding his expectations by an average of +3.21 points this season, James has scored -1.41 points fewer in back-to-backs this year. By implications alone, that would mean paying $9,600 for 41.46 DraftKings points.
Iman Shumpert has essentially eliminated any and all opposing guards he’s defended, but as we know, Will Barton comes off the bench. If he’s to log minutes against J.R. Smith, his projected floor of 17.8 points certainly isn’t something to shy away from.
Joffrey Lauvergne posting 24.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes against the Thunder was a blessing in disguise. Though a jumble at center, Nikola Jokic remains the better play of the two (or four, depending on which rotation the Nuggets decide to throw at the wall). Jokic has exceeded his expectations by a whopping +7.93 points in his last 10 games and is now essentially under the radar (having logged just 17 minutes against the Thunder). The same can be said about Gary Harris who, although strictly a tournament play, has logged at least 30 minutes in each of the last four games. If even two more of those 12.75 shots he’s averaged over that span fall, his salary of $4,300 essentially pays for itself.
Good luck tonight.
