The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a split slate: There are two games in the 2:20 pm ET early slate and 13 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is absolutely loaded at pitcher: There are six studs priced at $9,000 or higher on FanDuel:
The multitude of elite options will dilute ownership for everyone at the top, although it’s likely that Nationals stud Max Scherzer will still command the most. He’s second this year to only Chris Sale in pitching Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 4.2 and is first with a silly 1.94 ERA. He’s been especially dominant lately, as evidenced by his +17.07 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
He has gone for double-digit strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts, and he’s allowed just six total hits and a single run over his last three — a span of 21 innings. He has allowed a high 65 percent fly ball rate over his last two outings, but they haven’t gone particularly far (209-foot batted ball distance) nor have they been hit hard (88 mile per hour exit velocity). Scherzer faces the Braves today, who are currently implied for just 3.0 runs, which is a full 0.6 runs lower than any other team. He’s a massive, slate-high -269 moneyline favorite, and his 8.3 K Prediction also leads the slate. Pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically averaged a +7.75 Plus/Minus on 71.0 percent Consistency (per the MLB Trends tool):
Scherzer himself has historically averaged an +11.48 Plus/Minus on 81.8 percent Consistency in 22 such instances. You know what I said earlier about ownership being distributed among the studs? Yeah, forget that; Scherzer should be the chalk as usual. Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Two of the high-priced studs oppose each other in Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez, which means that, despite solid opponent implied run totals of 3.9 and 3.7, their moneylines are essentially even. deGrom boasts the second-highest K Prediction today at 8.2, and he’s been in elite form, going for between 52.0 and 64.0 FanDuel points in each of his last four starts. But the guy who is actually higher-rated in the Bales Model currently is Seattle lefty James Paxton, who has an opponent implied run total of 3.6 against an Oakland team that has an awful .287 team wOBA against lefties this season. Paxton has solid recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 186 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 37 percent, and a hard hit rate of 28 percent. With a respectable 7.5 K Prediction, he’s close enough to deGrom’s mark where the better Vegas data and nearly $2,000 savings in salary could make a difference for ownership levels.
Values
Drew Pomeranz hasn’t exploded for a huge game of late, but he’s been very solid, posting a +3.24 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
He faces the Rays today, who are currently implied for 4.0 runs and are typically a boom-or-bust matchup for pitchers. On the season they rank seventh with a .189 team ISO but also third with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate. They’re actually a bit worse against lefties than righties; they own a splits-adjusted wOBA of .306 and a strikeout rate of 27.0 percent. Pom is in good form and can take advantage: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. He’s just below the studs today at $8,700 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel, which could work to keep his ownership down.
Speaking of boom-or-bust: Kenta Maeda fits that mold perfectly. Here are his last two outings:
That last start is a bit eye-opening, as he got beat up by the Padres, who might own the worst offense in baseball with their .293 team wOBA. That said, Maeda’s recent Statcast data suggest things haven’t been that bad of late: Over those last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 202 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 36 percent, and a hard hit rate of 36 percent. That exit velocity isn’t great, but the rest of the data is fine, and he’ll get a chance to redeem himself today against a Royals squad that’s also poor offensively, as evidenced by their .307 team wOBA this season. Maeda is back down to $7,400 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 72 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Carlos Carrasco: He could have the lowest ownership of all the high-priced studs, specifically because he’s pitching in a game with a 54 percent chance of precipitation currently. He’s affordable at just $9,500 on FanDuel, where he has a 92 percent Bargain Rating. He owns a nice 7.3 K Prediction.
Zack Greinke: He’s averaged an +8.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and today he gets a Reds team currently implied for 3.8 runs. He’s allowed a low 87 mph exit velocity over his last two starts, and his salary has dropped a heavy $900 over the last month on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Justin Bailey is covering a few stacks in his Pro Model Stacks piece today; go check out what he has to say. One intriguing team is the Indians, who are currently implied for 5.7 runs, which is the third-highest mark of the day behind the Yankees (6.2) and the Rockies (6.8) at Coors Field:
They’re facing Detroit starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has easily the highest HR/9 among all pitchers today at 2.452. He’s allowed four home runs over his last three games, and his Statcast data suggests he could give up more tonight: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 244 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 44 percent. Leadoff hitter Jason Kipnis has averaged a batted ball distance of 232 feet and a fly ball rate of 57 percent over his last 13 games.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I wrote a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. They allow six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for the main slate:
The Yankees don’t have the benefit of playing in Coors Field tonight, but they’re still implied for a massive 6.2 runs. They have one of the best offenses in the league, as evidenced by their .342 team wOBA. They could do some damage against Milwaukee righty Junior Guerra, who has allowed 16 hits, 12 earned runs, and five homers over his last two starts. Those are laughably bad numbers, and his Statcast data is just as nauseating: Over that time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 256 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 48 percent. Aaron Judge owns a .317 ISO against fellow righties; it could be a long (or short) night for Guerra.
Batters
Let’s talk about some recently unlucky batters using our proprietary metric Recent Batted Ball Luck. Here’s the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
One recently unlucky player is Seattle outfielder Nelson Cruz, who has posted a middling -1.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
That said, his Statcast data is a little better: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 237 feet and a fly ball rate of 46 percent. He’s projected to bat cleanup for a Mariners team implied for 4.5 runs, and he’s projected for just two to four percent ownership.
Our RBBL metric can also identify players who have gotten lucky lately and could be due for negative regression, such as Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who has averaged a +1.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. His Statcast data, however, is putrid: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 23 percent, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent.
Sometimes there are players whose production has matched their Statcast data. We shouldn’t forget about these guys in pursuit of regression candidates. One such player is Milwaukee first baseman Travis Shaw, who has averaged a stellar +5.74 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. He’s projected to bat cleanup today, and he has great Statcast data along with his fantasy production. Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 259 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
