The importance of minutes played in relation to fantasy production has been debated and discussed plenty over the past few years. While an uptick in minutes is certainly a good thing for a player’s chances at producing additional fantasy stats, the extent of the impact that is felt by a change in minutes varies greatly from player to player.
Certain players have a strong correlation between an increase in minutes and fantasy points, while others may see a minimal increase in fantasy production when given a few extra minutes per game. Looking even deeper, an increase in minutes can be more meaningful from player to player based more on the team that they play for than the player themselves.
For example, a four-minute increase per game could be extremely meaningful for a player on a team that plays at a fast pace and has a greater amount of possessions each game, while that same four minutes may not produce a noticeable impact on the fantasy production of a player on a slower-paced team – give this article a read if you’re looking to dig into this idea further.
Taking all of this into account, any time we see a player receive a change in playing time over a stretch longer than a game or two, we should be taking note. Each week in the space below I’ll take a look at a few players that have had a noticeable change in playing time – whether positive or negative – throughout the past week or two. I’ll attempt to flesh out the reason(s) behind the change, determine if this change has been correlating into an increase or decrease in fantasy production, and how long we can expect this change in playing time to continue.
In addition to this, I’ll go through the leaders in minutes by position – based upon DraftKings player position eligibility – and examine what these huge minute totals mean for some of the league leaders at each position.
The Good
Gorgui Dieng
Dieng has been quietly returning solid value over the past month, exceeding his implied point total on 13 of 15 occasions. Taking advantage of additional playing time, he has proven to be a nice low cost pivot at the center position.
Coach Sam Mitchell had shown some hesitancy towards the notion of utilizing Dieng and Karl-Anthony Townes in the same lineup earlier in the season, but has warmed to the idea of late. And as veteran Kevin Garnett has begun to rest on the second leg of back-to-backs, opportunities for additional court-time have become even more abundant for Dieng.
Looking at the difference in production between nights that we have him projected for at least 26 minutes compared to all other nights, the bump in minutes doesn’t initially appear to be all that significant in regards to Dieng’s value.
However, while the additional playing time is not necessarily correlating into a large point increase, it is increasing his value in other ways. In the 17 games that we’ve projected him for 26 or more minutes, he has exceeded his implied point total 70% of the time. On all other occasions, he is exceeding it only 54% of the time.
Dieng’s role and playing time should be safe in the near future, as Garnett’s starting status is nothing more than a ceremonial role at this point – the veteran is averaging only 13 minutes a game over the previous five contests.
The Bad
Kevin Love
After seeming to finally hit his stride earlier this month, Love is more volatile than ever. Over his past six games he has two games under 18 DK points, a 30 DK point outing and three games over 35 DK points. While a portion of his struggles can be attributed to games that got out of hand, we’ve seen him play less than 30 minutes four times over his previous six games. When we’ve projected Love for 32 or less minutes this season, he has not returned acceptable value.
Small sample size notwithstanding, the difference in his average point totals are concerning. With Iman Shumpert and Kyrie Irving returning to the lineup, we’re likely to see continued minute fluctuations taking place in Cleveland. Irving’s return may help to open things up for Love, but if we see his minutes continue to trend down it will be difficult to trust him in your lineup until his salary drops. A wait-and-see approach may be best over the next few games to see how this situation shapes up.
The Minutes Leaders
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has continued to log heavy minutes and it’s finally started to correlate into increased production. Over the previous five games we’ve seen KCP average an impressive 36.1 DK points per night. While this average is certainly aided by his performance in Detroit’s recent quadruple-overtime game, he’s produced over 25.0 DK points in each of these previous five contests and has topped 40.0 points twice. His price is creeping up, but is still very reasonable at $5,300.
Just missing out on the top three at shooting guard, DeMar DeRozan’s minutes have increased steadily over the previous few weeks. Making good use of the increased playing time, he’s upped his nightly average DK point output to 38.0 since the start of December.
Don’t be fooled by Andre Drummond‘s apparent upswing in minutes and production lately. While his minutes and points averages have increased from last week, this is due to his massive outing in the quadruple-overtime contest referenced above. These inflated figures aren’t necessarily indicative of what you’ve been getting out of him on a nightly basis. Removing that outlier performance, he’s down 5.2 minutes and 1.9 DK points per game since the beginning of December. He’s still an elite option at the position, but his volatility has been on the rise of late.
