This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Stephen Strasburg: Pitcher, Nationals
Each slate is different, but in Strasburg’s last start (6/23), 84-degree weather likely played a role in deflating his ownership among the high-priced pitchers (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
On a slate that lacks a standout option in our Models, Strasburg is likely to have higher ownership today with a slate-leading 8.0 K Prediction against a Cubs team currently implied for just 3.8 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have a historical +3.05 Plus/Minus and 62.2 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings (per our Trends tool). Of Chicago’s projected batting order (per our Lineups page), just Ian Happ owns a recent batted ball distance of at least 220 feet.
Paul Goldschmidt: First Base, Diamondbacks
Rostering Goldschmidt at his high salary isn’t easy, but he’s batting third for a Diamondbacks team implied for 5.1 runs and entering his matchup against Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright in excellent form with a recent batted ball distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 42 percent. Batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals, and Statcast data have a strong historical Plus/Minus of +6.69 on FanDuel:
One concern is Wainwright allows a low 26 percent fly ball rate, but in games with comparable Weather Ratings Goldy’s Plus/Minus has spiked from +3.20 to +11.78 against comparable ground ball pitchers. Even if the Diamondbacks close the roof today on Chase Field, giving it a climate-controlled Weather Rating of 50, Goldschmidt will still be in a good spot: He has a formidable baseline historical Plus/Minus of +2.27 at Chase.
Alex Avila: Catcher, Tigers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. While three teams own higher implied totals, the Tigers could be a strong pivot play with their catcher likely to be a core player in many Detroit stacks:
Batting second, Avila is tied for a position-high eight FanDuel Pro Trends, and his 0.423 wOBA against righties has him in a fantastic spot against pitcher Ian Kennedy of the Royals, who are implied to surrender 5.1 runs. At a position that is typically shallow, Avila has unreal Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 243 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard hit rate of 48 percent. Batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals, and Statcast data have a strong historical Plus/Minus of +3.21 on DraftKings, where Avila has dual eligibility and could be a contrarian play as a first baseman.
Good luck, and be sure to read today’s MLB Breakdown!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
