The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today priced above $9,000 on DraftKings, headlined by Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer:
It’s easy to understand why Strasburg and Archer are the most-expensive options today, as they’re second and third with an average of 44.6 and 43.6 FanDuel points per game over the past month. Strasburg has averaged 9.3 strikeouts per game over his last six starts — including a 15-strikeout gem three weeks ago — and Archer has averaged a robust +9.14 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games.
That said, there are reasons they could be lower-owned than expected given those data points. First, they don’t have great matchups: Strasburg gets the Reds, who rank sixth in the league with a .331 team wOBA, and Archer takes on the Orioles, who have a respectable .181 team ISO against right-handed pitchers. They have opponent implied run totals of 3.4 and 3.8, which are top-five marks but also higher than Alex Wood‘s mark at home against the Rockies.
Strasburg rivals Wood in terms of moneyline odds, and Archer isn’t a small favorite by any means . . .
. . . but Wood outshines them in K Prediction: He owns a massive 9.0 mark whereas Strasburg and Archer sit at ‘only’ 6.5 and 7.4. When it comes to studs, oftentimes one must pick between safety — Vegas data is typically used as a proxy for this — and strikeout upside. Wood is arguably superior to both players in both aspects, and he’s at least $2,100 and $900 cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s tough to say where ownership will fall, but we currently have Wood projected for a slate-high 21-25 percent ownership rate on DraftKings.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
If Strasburg and Archer, who have opponent implied run totals under 4.0, are lower-owned than usual, just how contrarian will Yu Darvish be? I’m guessing he’ll have minuscule ownership: He’s on the road against the Yankees, who rank second in the league with a .348 team wOBA and are currently implied for a massive 5.2 runs. Darvish actually owns perhaps the best Statcast data of the four studs:
- Archer: 214-foot batted ball distance, 90 mile per hour exit velocity, 33 percent hard hit rate
- Strasburg: 220-foot batted ball distance, 92 mile per hour exit velocity, 32 percent hard hit rate
- Wood: 186-foot batted ball distance, 89 mile per hour exit velocity, 27 percent hard hit rate
- Darvish: 190-foot batted ball distance, 87 mile per hour exit velocity, 27 percent hard hit rate
Nevertheless, the Yankees have perhaps the best offense in baseball, they’re at home in a hitter’s park, and they’re implied for 5.2 runs. That said, Darvish has a high 8.0 K Prediction, and the probability of Darvish putting up the best game tonight isn’t zero, but he’ll likely be close to that in ownership.
Values
It has been a profitable move this season to 1) look at Player Models, 2) find who is facing the Padres, and 3) roster that pitcher:
The lucky pitcher today is Detroit righty Michael Fulmer, who is expensive enough to qualify as a ‘stud’ on FanDuel at $10,100 but is much cheaper at $8,300 on DraftKings, where he has a 94 percent Bargain Rating. I won’t sugarcoat it: Fulmer has been bad lately, scoring 9.00 and -3.65 FanDuel points in his last two games and allowing eight earned runs across 11 innings. That said, his Statcast data isn’t terrible: Over that span, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 184 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 24 percent, and a hard hit rate of 36 percent. The exit velocity is concerning, but his distance mark is good and suggests he’s been unlucky over his last two games: He owns a slate-high +83 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). Per the MLB Trends tool, pitchers with above-average recent velocity marks have been poor overall but still very good against the Padres this season:
Outside of the studs and Fulmer, the options aren’t great. One fringe option is Jimmy Nelson, who is first among all pitchers today with an average of 32.0 DraftKings points per game over the last month; he’s gone for double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four starts. He faces the Braves, who are currently implied for 4.5 runs, but he has elite Statcast data from his last start, allowing a batted ball distance of 148 feet, an exit velocity of 82 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 14 percent, and a hard hit rate of four percent. He could have low ownership because of his Vegas data, the other options around him, and the 37 percent chance of precipitation for the Tigers-Padres game.
Fastball
Jameson Taillon: It’s hard to find another pitcher to be excited about, but Taillon at least has a couple data points in his favor. First, he has a respectable 6.7 K Prediction and is in a pitcher’s park in St. Louis. Second, he has stellar recent Statcast data as well: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 186 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 18 percent, and a hard hit rate of 28 percent.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Several of the top stacks today belong to the Indians, Rangers, and Dodgers, but since J.J. Calle covered them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks let’s pivot to a couple other interesting stacks:
The Brewers face Atlanta righty Michael Foltynewicz, who has the worst recent Statcast data among all pitchers today: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 51 percent. Many of the Brewers bats have solid recent distance marks, including projected cleanup hitter Travis Shaw, who went yard last night and has averaged a 215-foot batted ball distance and 41 percent hard hit rate over his last 11 games. The Brewers are implied for 4.6 runs, which is a nice number, but there are still 14 teams ahead of them. They’ll be low-owned.
The Tampa Bay Rays face Baltimore righty Ubaldo Jimenez, who also has concerning recent Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 230 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. This four-man Rays stack on FanDuel has no player projected for more than two to four percent ownership, despite their high total of 5.0 runs. Both Logan Morrison and Steven Souza have massive splits against righties — they own ISO differentials of .152 and .131 — and they’ve been crushing the ball of late, averaging distances of 245 and 238 feet over the past 15 days.
Batters
Aaron Judge is expensive, but he does have a 90 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel at $4,300, and he continues to rake. He went yard last night and has just ridiculous advanced marks over the last two weeks. During that span, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 272 feet, an exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 58 percent. Batters with those marks, independent of their Vegas data, have been incredibly valuable DFS assets:
All the buzz in LA has been rightfully about Cody Bellinger, who has been absolutely incredible, posting an +11.92 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 starts. But his teammate, Corey Seager, has been just as good:
Further, he’s one of the few players in this slate with Statcast data that rivals Judge’s. Over the last two weeks, Seager has averaged a batted ball distance of 260 feet, an exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard hit rate of 55 percent. If people roster Wood at a high rate today, the Dodgers bats could actually have lower ownership than expected.
Finally, let’s touch on Cameron Maybin, who is currently projected to lead off for the Angels, who are implied for a below-average 4.4 runs against the Red Sox. Among players with at least 10 starts over the last month, Maybin leads all players with an average of 17.9 FanDuel points per game. He has hit his Upside mark in 35 percent of those contests, and he’s posted a Dud just 11 percent of the time. He’s still affordable on both sites at $3,800 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, and he’s a fine, low-owned standalone player to roster with a stack.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
