The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s four-game main slate begins at 8:10 pm ET. The DraftKings 10-game early slate starts at 2:10 pm ET and the FanDuel nine-game early slate commences at 4:05 pm ET. The Mariners-Rangers game is not included in the DraftKings early slate, and the first game of the Indians-Twins doubleheader and the Giants-Rockies match aren’t included in the FanDuel early slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Three of the five most-expensive pitchers are available in the early slate, and Marcus Stroman is available only in the all day slate:
Stephen Strasburg is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $10,900, and he costs $200 less than Chris Archer on DraftKings. Strasburg is the only pitcher in the early slate facing a team with an implied run total less than 4.0, but that number presently stands at 3.8 (per our Vegas Dashboard). He’s pitched in only 17 games in which an opponent was implied to score at least 3.7 runs (per our Trends tool), and more than half of those occurred in an extremely hitter-friendly park. Strasburg has a top-10 park for pitchers today, and in eight previous Citi Field outings, he has averaged a +15.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus while failing to meet salary-based expectations just once.
Strasburg recorded a season-low two strikeouts in 7.0 innings against the Mets in April, and his opponent 0.209 SO/AB is the second-lowest mark for all pitchers available today — two extremely concerning data points. Even though he was roughed up for six earned runs in his last start against an anemic Braves offense, he managed to register 10 strikeouts in 5.0 innings. Strasburg’s -90 Recent Batted Ball Luck is the worst mark on the slate, yet when he’s provided a similar number in the past, Strasburg has averaged a +4.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 77.8 percent Consistency rate.
Strasburg should offer a solid cash-game floor, and he could provide more value in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) today, as the choice could boil down to his high salary or the bats at Coors Field. Pitchers with similar salaries, K Predictions, and opponent implied run totals have normally exceeded expectations and compiled a close to neutral Plus/Minus (image below). In Strasburg’s case, he’s averaged 19.99 DraftKings points, or 0.65 points less than today’s salary-implied point total:
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Chase Anderson has allowed one run in his last 27.2 innings pitched, and he’s facing a Padres team with the second-lowest wOBA and highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Righties have averaged a +4.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Padres this year with a 66.0 percent Consistency Rating, and the Brewers’ -157 moneyline is the third-highest mark in the early slate. Anderson also offers the second-highest K Prediction, but when he faced the Padres last month in San Diego, he lasted 5.1 innings and produced only 8.6 DraftKings points.
Anderson has induced an unusually high number of ground balls recently, and his velocity has increased 2.3 miles per hour than his long-term average over the last two starts. He’s allowed a low 168-foot batted ball distance as well as a 17 percent hard hit rate over the last two weeks — top-two marks in the early slate. He costs career-highs of $9,600 on DraftKings and $9,200 on FanDuel, and pitchers with a comparable monthly salary increase, team moneyline odds, and opponent implied run total have provided a +2.62 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a +3.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Anderson has all the peripherals to be considered a viable cash-game play, but his newfound success may be a blip. Prior to his recent string of dynamite outings, Anderson struggled to produce double-digit DraftKings points:
The Padres’ struggles this season certainly improves Anderson’s outlook in GPPs, but his recent performances may not be worth testing in cash games at his elevated salaries.
Jake Arrieta faces a team with the lowest implied run total in the main slate, although it has already increased 0.2 runs and stands at 4.1. He’s reportedly dealing with a right thumb laceration, but despite that issue, Arrieta has limited hitters to a 194-foot recent batted ball distance and a 20 percent recent fly ball rate. The ailment has lingered much of the season, and it makes it difficult to rely on him in cash games. During his recent outing, Arrieta cruised through four scoreless innings before surrendering four runs in the fifth.
Arrieta has a solid 82 Park Factor and 91 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating, but he’s struggled away from Wrigley Field since the start of last season, averaging a -2.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He’s been particularly bad at PNC Park — today’s site — averaging a -13.2 FanDuel Plus/Minus across three starts. His $9,800 FanDuel salary is the second-lowest he’s been on the road in that time, and in a four-game main slate in which only one pitcher offers comparable recent Statcast data to Arrieta’s and only four hitters cost more than $4,000, he’ll likely be one of the highest-owned players in GPPs due to name recognition and surplus funds.
Values
Alex Meyer has the fourth-highest yearly SO/9 rate among all pitchers today, and he faces a projected lineup with the second-highest SO/AB rate in the all day slate. He’s participating in the main slate, and despite being the second-most expensive DraftKings pitcher, he costs $7,600. Meyer snapped a five-game streak of exceeding salary-based expectations in his most recent outing, but he narrowly missed the margin by 1.79 points. His five walks came against a team that ranks second in walk rate against right-handed pitchers. Today should be easier in that regard, as the Royals’ 6.4 percent walk rate against right-handed pitchers is the second-lowest mark this season. Meyer is the only pitcher with similar recent Statcast data to Arrieta’s, and he comes with a $2,200 discount.
Dinelson Lamet presently possesses the third-highest K Prediction among all pitchers, and he costs $5,500 on DraftKings after two poor outings in which he allowed 14 combined earned runs. He claims the worst recent Statcast data, including a 59 percent fly ball rate. However, he’s quite cheap, and the Brewers have the third-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Lamet’s exposure should be limited to GPPs, however, as he carries considerable downside against a team presently implied to score 5.4 runs.
Fastballs
Mike Clevinger: He’s notched at least six strikeouts in four straight starts, and he presently claims the highest K Prediction in the main slate. Clevinger will toss the second game of the Indians-Twins doubleheader; he could see a different starting lineup than normal should manager Paul Molitor opt to rest a few everyday Twins starters. The potential for rain and the Twins’ 4.8 implied run total limit Clevinger to GPP-only status.
Chris Archer: He leads all pitchers in K Prediction and costs a season-high $12,400 on DraftKings. However, he’s facing the Tigers, who have a 4.5 implied run total today; right-handed pitchers have averaged a poor -2.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus against Detroit this season. Additionally, pitchers have averaged a -1.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus with today’s umpire, and Archer has allowed a recent hard hit rate of 51 percent.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Rockies lead all early-slate teams in implied run total, and they account for the highest-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
The most-expensive stack includes three of the seven most-expensive hitters in the early slate. They’ve averaged a cumulative +0.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Coors Field this season, a mark that has been tainted by D.J. LeMahieu‘s -2.13 Plus/Minus with a 26.7 percent Consistency Rating. If you’re looking for exposure to this stack yet want to save cap room, consider removing LeMahieu, who has a 67 percent ground ball rate over the last 14 games. Coors Field hitters own a 100 Park Factor and 100 Weather Rating, and under similar parameters, Rockies hitters have averaged a +2.67 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 54.2 percent Consistency Rating. Nolan Arenado leads the Rockies and all third basemen in the early slate with a 254-foot recent batted ball distance, and in 51 games with comparable park and weather credentials, he’s averaged a +3.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 20.6 percent GPP ownership.
The Indians are implied to score 5.6 runs in the main slate — over half a run more than any other team — and they currently offer the best FanDuel Team Value Rating. They’re predictably the highest-rated FanDuel stack in the Bales Model:
They are facing a left-handed pitcher for the ninth time in the last 12 games — including the first game of the doubleheader. For the first half of the season, the Indians averaged a -3.14 FanDuel Plus/Minus against lefties. Since then, they’ve compiled a +0.22 FanDuel Plus/Minus and averaged 5.57 runs in the last seven games against left-handed starters. Twins lefty starter Adalberto Mejia has allowed a 246-foot batted ball distance and 48 percent fly ball rate in consecutive starts against the Mariners, who rank last in ISO against lefties this season. Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yan Gomes lead the Indians in ISO against left-handed pitchers, and Gomes is a solid, cheap catching option in the main slate at $2,500.
Batters
The Dodgers and Reds will face the same pitchers for the second time in less than a week, this time at Great American Ball Park. Asher Wojciechowski opposes the Dodgers after allowing four runs in 5.0 innings last Saturday, and Hyun-jin Ryu allowed three home runs in 4.0 innings last week against a Reds team with the third-highest ISO against left-handed pitchers. The Dodgers are presently implied to score the second-highest run total in the all day slate, and they provide the best FanDuel Team Value Rating. The Reds are one of many teams implied to score between 4.7 and 4.9 runs, likely reducing their overall ownership in GPPs. Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, and Adam Duvall accounted for the three homers off Ryu last week, and they have the three-highest ISO marks on the Reds. Their recent batted ball distances are concerning, but they have the sixth-best cumulative ISO for a three-man stack in the early slate. The Dodgers offer the best three-man ISO stack, and it includes Justin Turner, who has a hit in 12 straight games.
Jaime Garcia has allowed nine stolen bases this season and at least one in seven of his last eight starts. Dee Gordon ranks third among all hitters with a 0.379 SB/G rate. Garcia also surrendered two home runs to Giancarlo Stanton earlier this season. Stanton leads all everyday hitters with a 0.491 wOBA and 0.437 ISO, and he’s averaged a +2.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus against left-handed pitchers since the start of 2012. The mini stack of Gordon and Stanton is considerably cheaper on FanDuel, where both offer Bargain Ratings of at least 63 percent.
Daniel Murphy has crushed his former team repeatedly since joining the Nationals: In 26 games against the Mets, Murphy has averaged a +4.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 51.9 percent Consistency Rating. He’s a solid cash-game option as the most-expensive second baseman in the early slate.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
