The PGA Weekend Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for the DraftKings weekend slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings has put out some larger weekend contests for the U.S. Open, including the $300,000 Open Special that will award a combined $60,000 to the three top finishers!
Birds Of Prey
Birdies are essential to success in DraftKings weekend golf games. If some dude goes six or seven under par in one of the weekend rounds and is not on your roster, you’ll have a difficult time taking down a large-field guaranteed prize pool. Using our Birdie Differential metric is a great way to target players who have made more birdies recently.
#SB2K17
While many of the well-known studs failed to make the weekend, Justin Thomas ($8,600) managed to to make the cut comfortably at two under par. Thomas not only ranks well in our Birdie Differential metric, but he also leads the PGA Tour in Birdie or Better percentage at 27.65 percent. Thomas has one of the best Long-Term Adjusted Round Scores (LT Adj Rd Scores) remaining in the field at 69.1, and his 302.2-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) has suited him well around Erin Hills. Plus, Thomas is no stranger to going low in a round: He shot a 59 earlier this season in Hawaii.
Coming From Way Back
Scotland’s Richie Ramsay ($7,300), owner of three wins on the European Tour, will be starting from the back after barely making the cut. Ramsay owns the third-best Birdie Differential in the field, and he is tied for 16th with his 15.0 Recent Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg). Ramsay has just six birdies through the first two rounds, so he’ll need to get busy this weekend to maintain his recent average.
The Flat Brim
Another Birdie Differential leader, Kevin Chappell ($7,800), has played well recently, supported by his 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score. Chappell won the Texas Open in late April and finished fourth at last week’s St. Jude Classic. Importantly, Chappell finished seventh at the Masters when he shot a combined six under par on the weekend. Per our DFS Ownership Dashboard, Chappell was owned at an average of 5.35 percent in Thursday contests, and it’s possible he could fly under the radar for weekend contests as well.
Remember Him?
One of the players featured in our Five Under Five, Hao-Tong Li ($7,200) has a top-two Birdie Differential in the field. Li is tied for eighth with his 16.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. He was contrarian in Thursday contests (owned at an average of 0.46 percent per the Dashboard) and will likely be contrarian again this weekend.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Brooks Koepka ($8,500): Koepka is tied for ninth in the field with his 15.1 LT Adj Bird Avg and has the second-best Adj Eagles Per Tournament at a robust 1.3. Koepka is tied for the lead with three others at seven under par.
Stephan Jaeger ($7,000): Jaeger Bomber once shot a 58 in a Web.com Tour event, where he has three wins. Jaeger starts the weekend at even par, seven shots back of the leaders, so he’ll need a low round to contend. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s just $100 more than the stone minimum. Rostering Jaegar gives you some potential upside while allowing you the flexibility to play multiple high-priced studs.
Andrew “Beef” Johnston ($7,400,): Beef has poured in nine birdies through the first two rounds and starts the weekend at two under par. Plus, Beef is no stranger to showing up in major championships: He finished eighth in the (British) Open Championship last year.
Shane Lowry ($7,800): Lowry loves the U.S. Open: He finished T9 and T2 in the event the past two years. Lowry has made just six birdies through the first two rounds, but his 14.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg suggests there are more of those to come this weekend.
Good luck this weekend, and enjoy the U.S. Open!
