The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today above $9,000 on FanDuel, headlined by Nationals stud Max Scherzer:
He is in a class of his own — at least salary-wise, as he’s $1,400 and $2,500 more than any other option on DraftKings and FanDuel. That said, his premium is warranted: He has gone for at least 50 FanDuel points and double-digit strikeouts in each of his last four games:
His Statcast data is in line with his recent surge: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 208 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard hit rate of 32 percent. The fly ball rate is particularly notable: Scherzer is not a ground ball pitcher by any means and typically allows a bunch of fly balls; it comes with the territory of throwing the ball so hard. His long-term batted ball distance is around 47 percent, so a dip in that category especially shows how well Scherzer is pitching right now.
Today he has a tough matchup against a Mets squad that ranks eighth this season with a .332 team wOBA against right-handed pitchers and only 26th with a 19.1 percent team strikeout rate. That said, his other data suggests we should be unconcerned: The Mets have a slate-low implied team total of 3.5, and Scherzer’s 8.5 K Prediction is the slate’s best mark by 0.6 strikeouts, given his massive 11.751 SO/9 rate. Scherzer has averaged a ridiculous monthly FanDuel PPG of 57.2, which combined with his K Prediction yields a historical pitcher cohort that is rare and valuable (per our Trends tool):
I won’t repost the GIF of Mad Max from last week since it’s not exactly SFW, but I had a friend hypothesize that Scherzer’s cursing was directed at the baseball, not his opponent batter. Whatever it is, the sweet talk is working. He’ll likely be the highest-owned pitcher tonight.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Luis Severino and Carlos Martinez are just $100 apart on FanDuel, and they’re both in excellent form. Severino has gone for 50-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games, and Martinez is coming off a 70-point gem in which he struck out 11 batters and went the distance. Severino has averaged a +9.07 Plus/Minus and 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10; Martinez has averaged an +11.70 Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10. They even have similar Statcast data over their last two:
They’re both worthy of roster spots today, and they’re actually two of the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model as of this morning. The smart move in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) is probably to roster the pitcher with lower projected ownership, and that distinction belongs to Martinez, whose opponent implied run total of 4.3 versus the Orioles is 0.5 runs higher than Severino’s versus the Athletics. Martinez clearly showed his ceiling last game and owns the higher K Prediction today at 7.0.
Values
Alex Wood had a somewhat disappointing game last outing, scoring only 29.0 FanDuel points and allowing three earned runs:
That said, he had been dominant prior to that game, and he still got about 90 pitches in against the Reds. He’s allowed just three total runs over his last five games, and while his Statcast data includes information from only the most recent one — his ‘bad’ outing — it’s still quite good: In that game, he allowed a batted ball distance of 184 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 20 percent, and a hard hit rate of 33 percent. He has been elite this season, and he’ll look to keep things rolling today against a Reds squad that is fairly tough against lefties, ranking 10th in team wOBA but just 19th in strikeout rate. That said, Wood still has a high 7.9 K Prediction — the second-best mark today — thanks to his robust past-year 11.452 SO/9 rate. He’s certainly capable of 50-plus fantasy points like the guys listed above, and his lower salary can help make room for some higher-priced bats; his $8,600 FanDuel price tag comes with a 73 percent Bargain Rating.
If you want to dip even farther into the bargain bin so you can roster some Coors Field batters, young Braves southpaw Sean Newcomb could be your guy. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut last week and did not disappoint, allowing four hits and no earned runs while striking out seven batters in 6.1 innings pitched. He got exactly 100 pitches in that start, and it went so well that Atlanta is giving him another start today. Obviously, there is much less data on Newcomb than other pitchers given that he’s pitched just one game ever, but his Statcast data from last week is encouraging: In that start, he allowed a batted ball distance of 165 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of just five percent. Vegas bettors seem to be skeptical of him right now — the Marlins are currently implied for 4.4 runs — but that’s probably because Miami ranks sixth in the league with a .336 wOBA against southpaws. He’s too risky for cash games, but his $6,500 DraftKings price tag, elite Statcast data, and 6.2 K Prediction are definitely worthy of pursuing in GPPs given that Coors Field is in the main slate.
Fastballs
Daniel Norris: He’s been uninspiring this season, posting a -1.22 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. That said, he owns the third-highest K Prediction today at 7.6 against a Rays squad that ranks second in the league with a 26.9 percent strikeout rate against lefties.
Carlos Carrasco: He’s the one ‘stud’ we didn’t discuss above, mostly because he’s in Minnesota and has an opponent implied team total of 4.6. That said, he owns top-five marks in both K Prediction (7.4) and moneyline odds (-148). He’ll be low-owned given the slate dynamics today.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On DraftKings, the highest-rated five-man stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
They face Minnesota lefty Nik Turley, who will get his second start today after getting crushed last week, allowing four earned runs and eight hits across just four innings against the lowly Giants. Today’s task is much harder against a Cleveland squad that exploded for 12 runs yesterday and has some batters hitting well right now. Each player in this stack has averaged an exit velocity of 91-plus MPH over the last 15 days, and it should be contrarian as it includes Nos. 6 and 7 hitters in Austin Jackson and Yan Gomes, both of whom are on the positive side of their splits against the southpaw.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
They are currently implied for 5.3 runs against Reds righty Tim Adleman, who has some concerning Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 243 feet (second-highest today) and a fly ball rate of 63 percent (highest today). Those are ominous, especially considering Adleman ranks third among today’s 30 starting pitchers with a high 1.760 HR/9 rate. Corey Seager has a ridiculous .405 wOBA against righties, and his Statcast data is solid: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 232 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent.
Batters
I didn’t mention the Rockies above, although they owned the No. 2 stack for both DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re in Coors Field today against the Giants, and it’s reasonable to think they’ll be somewhat lower-owned than they usually are at home. First, they’re facing Jeff Samardzija, who has been outstanding this season, posting a top-12 WAR among all pitchers. Further, our MLB Ownership Dashboard has taught us that when given a choice this season between a truly elite stud pitcher like Scherzer and high-priced bats most DFS users choose the pitcher. Finally, there are just a ton of teams with massive run totals today (per our MLB Vegas Dashboard):
Stacking this game could prove to be a profitable move in GPPs, given the Rockies’ probable reduced ownership. Charlie Blackmon has a floor he can’t dip below in terms of ownership — he has a .417 wOBA against righties — but someone like cleanup hitter Mark Reynolds could see a dip today. He’s been equally ridiculous against righties over the last year, posting a .412 wOBA, .265 ISO, and .579 slugging percentage. And you can even move to the Giants: They don’t have a great offense, but they are implied for 5.5 runs at Coors Field. Perhaps look at someone like Brandon Belt, who has the highest ISO on the team at .214 against righties and is projected to bat third. A low-owned Coors Field could win GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
