The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are three games in the 12:10 pm ET early slate and seven games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers today above $9,000 on FanDuel; Chris Sale and Justin Verlander are in the main slate, while Jose Berrios is the highest-priced option in the early one.
Sale is in a clear class by himself, and he’s continued his dominant ways into June, averaging a robust +11.57 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
That said, after striking out double-digit batters in eight straight games and averaging 11.00 strikeouts a game during that span, he’s gone for single digits and averaged just 7.75 strikeouts per game over his last four. And what’s even more concerning is that he’s allowed 31 hits during that span, along with 14 earned runs. The fact that he’s still averaged a 90 percent Consistency mark despite those poor marks shows just how important strikeouts are, and despite the slump he’s always a candidate for a double-digit K game.
We can look at his Statcast data and see if we really should be worried about him: Over his last two games, he has allowed a very high batted ball distance of 223 feet, but his exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, fly ball rate of 34 percent, and hard hit rate of 23 percent are all excellent marks. And honestly, he would likely still be the uber chalk tonight even if he did possess poor Statcast data: He’s facing the Phillies, whose 3.3 implied run total is the only mark below 4.0 today. Sale is the only pitcher with a moneyline above -150, and he sits way up at -235 currently. Per the MLB Trends tool, pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically been incredibly consistent DFS options. He will likely have massive ownership levels given the other options today.
Verlander is in an odd spot, but it’s one that could potentially lead to him being very underowned in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s at home against the Rays, who are currently implied for 4.4 runs and have been a very boom-or-bust matchup this season. On the year, they rank sixth in the league with a .190 team ISO but also first with a massive 26.0 percent strikeout rate. Verlander owns the highest K Prediction today at 7.6 currently.
From that angle, you can make the case that Verlander could be more on the ‘boom’ side than the ‘bust’ side. But then look at his Statcast data, which is bad enough to do a double-take: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 69 percent. It’s definitely understandable to fade Sale in favor of Coors Field batters in the main slate, but Verlander might be a little too risky tonight. And I haven’t even mentioned that this game has a 40 percent chance of precipitation. Projecting ownership will be key to his value: If he’s over double digits, he could be a fade in GPPs as well.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Young Yankees lefty Jordan Montgomery has gone for 98 pitches on average over his last two starts, and he’s finished with 49.0 and 43.0 FanDuel points in those. He’s allowed just two earned runs during that time, and his Statcast data matches up with his results: Over that span, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 188 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 38 percent, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent. Further, today he gets the Athletics, who rank 23rd in the league this year with a .298 wOBA against lefties. They’re also fourth with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate, and Montgomery has a respectable 6.6 K Prediction. They’re in Oakland, which means that pitchers get a Park Factor bump; Montgomery’s 79 mark is the third-best mark in the slate behind the pitchers in Anaheim today. All that said, the Athletics are currently implied for 4.2 runs, which is a bit surprising. It’s possible that line is too high and comes down today, and he’s worth the risk regardless, especially on FanDuel, where his low $7,500 price tag comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
So Jeff Hoffman is pitching at home at Coors Field, and the opposing San Francisco Giants are currently implied for a high 5.0 runs. Then again, the Giants rank dead last in the league this year with a .285 team wOBA and .121 team ISO. They don’t strike out a ton — their 19.5 percent strikeout rate is 25th — and thus Hoffman’s 4.9 K Prediction is one of the lower marks of the day. The matchup against the Giants is intriguing, but Hoffman can’t be a real option given that he’s pitching at home and possesses such a low K Prediction, right?
Over his first four starts, Hoffman has been absolutely dominant. He’s pitched just once at Coors Field, but he was solid in that campaign, and his last game — in a very windy Wrigley Field — was elite. He’s been between seven and nine strikeouts in each of those four games, and his Statcast data confirms how good he’s been: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 193 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent. He is just $7,500 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel, and he’s currently projected for just two to four percent ownership on the latter site. He’s certainly worth some darts.
Fastballs
Ariel Miranda: Every team in the early slate is currently implied for 4.6-plus runs, so you might as well roster the guy with the highest K Prediction, right? Miranda leads the slate with a 5.9 mark, and he’s a value on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
Rich Hill: He’s in the early slate too, and he at least boasts elite Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 183 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 36 percent, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) in the early slate belongs to the Seattle Mariners, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs.
That’s actually the second-lowest mark in the slate, which means that Seattle could be a bit lower-owned than the other teams. Further, they’re facing the most expensive pitcher in Berrios, who could be a popular option because of that distinction. Many of the Mariners are hitting the ball really well right now, especially Kyle Seager, who has averaged a 246-foot batted ball distance, a 94-MPH exit velocity, a 54 percent fly ball rate, and a 44 percent hard hit rate over his last 14 games. This stack could be a contrarian one, as it dips down to No. 8 hitter Carlos Ruiz, who actually leads all DraftKings batters in the early slate with 10 Pro Trends.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack in the main slate belongs to a non-Coors team in the Detroit Tigers:
The Tigers are currently implied for 5.2 runs — the third-highest mark in the slate after moving up 0.3 runs since opening — and face Rays righty Alex Cobb, whose recent Statcast data has been absolutely atrocious. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 46 percent, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. That’s bad news, especially against a guy like Alex Avila, whose Statcast data is just silly: Over his last seven games, he’s averaged an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 54 percent. There could be a home run in this game.
Batters
It’s always a good idea to find batters who are due for positive regression. One way to identify this is to use our proprietary new Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) metric, which is defined below:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
A good example of this is St. Louis Cardinals cleanup hitter Jedd Gyorko, who has done this over his past 10 games . . .
However, his Statcast data suggests he’s due for some positive regression soon. Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 235 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 43 percent. He’s been hitting the ball well but hasn’t seen fantasy results; he has a high +52 RBBL. Things could turn for him as quickly as tonight, as the Cardinals are currently implied for 5.0 runs against the Brewers.
If you’re concerned about Verlander’s awful recent data, it could be wise to target hitters against him. Rays outfielder Mallex Smith is just $2,200 on FanDuel and is projected to bat leadoff today (per the MLB Lineups page). He’s averaged 18.0 fantasy points over his last six games — the second-highest mark among all batters today in the main slate. His Statcast data isn’t particularly great, nor is his 0.071 ISO, but he’s young and it’s really hard to ignore a near-minimum priced batter in the leadoff spot against a struggling pitcher. The Rays have a potent offense, and including Smith in your stack will certainly leave room for Sale or other high-priced bats.
Last but not least, remember that Aaron Judge is capable of this on any given day:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
