The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series in which we review the ownership dynamics of a previous slate.
Many people use Vegas data as a resource for daily fantasy baseball, but for most it stops with elementary concepts like implied team totals and moneyline odds. With the Vegas Dashboard, however, you can take it a step further and track a variety of different data points, including something called Reverse Line Movement (RLM). RLM occurs when the line moves in a particular team’s favor despite receiving a minority of the public betting action, and on Wednesday’s slate (6/14) three teams qualified for this phenomenon:
While the Tigers and Dodgers both did technically receive the minority of the bets in their games, it’s the Phillies that really stand out here; their implied team total increased by 0.4 runs despite receiving only 27 percent of the public bets. A line move of that size with that little public support is rare and typically implies interest from sharp bettors in Vegas.
Using the MLB Trends tool we can find data on RLM. First, here’s the baseline Plus/Minus for all teams implied for 4.9 runs over the last three seasons, which is what the Phillies were implied for on Wednesday:
While the batters have historically provided value, a Plus/Minus of +0.54 is slight. What happens when we add in line movement of +0.3 to +0.5 runs?
The Plus/Minus does increase slightly from +0.56 to +0.66, while the historical ownership for these players actually decreases from 6.7 percent to 5.8 percent. We’re headed in the right direction, but that’s still not really enough to move the needle for GPPs. Where this trend really gains steam, however, is when we add in a public betting percentage of no greater than 35 percent:
That’s a significant increase in historical Plus/Minus, and the average ownership of these batters suggests that this is an edge casual DFS players are not identifying. And while 84 occurrences is a relatively small sample size, updating the trend to include all teams with an implied team total of 4.5 to 6.0 runs still yields a historical Plus/Minus of +1.20 and average ownership of only 5.2 percent on DraftKings.
Back to the Phillies. Opposing pitcher Brian Johnson had allowed an average batted ball distance of 238 feet in his last start, and a majority of the Phillies’ lineup were on the positive side of their splits against the southpaw:
The lineup featured five righties and two switch hitters, and while leadoff hitter Odubel Herrera does bat left-handed, he had also posted an impressive batted ball differential of +35 feet over his last 13 games. For the most part, these batters were also cheap – five batters commanded Bargain Ratings of 56 to 94 percent on DraftKings – and their resulting Team Value Rating of 87 was tied for the highest mark on the slate. At what would likely be low ownership, stacking the Phillies seemed to have merit and could be accomplished with our Lineup Builder.
Results
While they were able to get to Johnson for three earned runs in 2.2 innings thanks to a home run from Aaron Altherr, the Phillies were unable to score any runs against the Red Sox bullpen over 6.1 innings. However, the key Phillies batters did check in with low average ownership, and many posted positive Volatility Ratings as well (per the Ownership Dashboard):
Though it didn’t work out on this slate, targeting teams with RLM has paid off in the past and is something that is overlooked by most DFS players. Stacking players on these squads could be a profitable endeavor in the future, especially in smaller stakes GPPs.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of slates.
