The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday offers an early three-game slate that starts at 3:40 pm ET and an 11-game main slate that begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
The most expensive pitchers on DraftKings all have Bargain Ratings south of 25 percent, and Johnny Cueto is the only one available in the early slate:
Corey Kluber leads all main-slate pitchers in salary, K Prediction, Pro Trends, and opponent implied run total. He’s struck out at least eight hitters in four of his last five starts, but he’s also allowed at least seven hits and three earned runs in three of those outings. Although the projected Dodgers lineup has the slate’s second-highest splits-adjusted SO/AB rate, it also has the second-highest wOBA — and three of the hitters in the top half of their lineup have positive wOBA and ISO differentials as well as positive Statcast differentials.
At the same time, Kluber’s Statcast differentials are a vast improvement on his year-long marks, as he rates near the top in every category with distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -27 feet, -6 miles per hour, and -14 percentage points. Pitchers with similar differentials and K Predictions have averaged a +2.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Facing one of two teams presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs in the main slate, Michael Pineda is a close second to Kluber in terms of K Prediction and opponent implied run total. The Angels are generally not an offense to attack when seeking strikeouts, but pitchers with yearly SO/9 rates similar to Pineda’s have averaged a +5.93 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Angels this season. Pineda gets a noticeable boost in Park Factor, and over his last 10 starts he’s averaged a +5.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating:
Although Pineda may seem like a safe pivot off Kluber, he’s struggled away from Yankee Stadium this season and failed to meet DraftKings salary-based expectations in four of five starts. Pineda and Kluber both offer 98 percent FanDuel Bargain Ratings, but Pineda costs $1,500 less than Kluber, who is making his third start since being activated off the disabled list. Since the slate isn’t loaded with viable pitching alternatives, all of whom have lower K Predictions and higher opponent implied run totals, both starters will likely have high ownership rates in the main slate. It’s possible that ownership may favor Pineda on DraftKings due to Kluber’s high price point.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
In the early slate, Cueto leads all six pitchers in K Prediction, Park Factor, moneyline odds, monthly FanDuel Dud percentage, opponent’s wOBA, and salary. He’ll likely be the highest-owned pitcher in the early slate. Home pitchers with similar salaries, K Predictions, and opponent implied totals have averaged a +4.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 70.8 percent Consistency Rating. Intriguingly, Cueto has qualified for the trend more than any other pitcher:
The potential for rain in the Braves-Nationals game could reduce the slate to two games, placing a higher emphasis on pitching since the Nationals are presently implied to score a slate-best 5.4 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). Pitchers facing the Royals this season with a comparable K Prediction have averaged a +4.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus, the slate’s second-highest mark.
Values
Marked down to $4,700 on DraftKings, Chad Kuhl hasn’t pitched more than 5.0 innings or recorded more than five strikeouts in nine straight starts, but he has great Statcast data with a 12 percent hard hit rate, 64 percent ground ball rate, and 83 mph exit velocity in his last two starts. Pitchers with similar Statcast data and comparably mediocre K Predictions have averaged a +5.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 76.8 percent Consistency Rating with a 3.8 percent GPP ownership rate.
Brandon McCarthy has the slate’s sixth-highest WHIP, seventh-lowest wOBA allowed, and second-highest soft contact rate against left-handed hitters, and the projected Indians lineup is filled with seven switch- or left-handed hitters. McCarthy doesn’t have much upside with his 6.32 SO/9 against lefties this season, but if you’re fading Kluber then consider McCarthy, as he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in three of his last four starts and has a recent batted ball distance of 191 feet and hard hit rate of 18 percent. Opposite Kluber, McCarthy will likely have minimal ownership, and among the pitchers priced below $8,000 McCarthy ranks third in K Prediction, first in HR/9 rate, and second in overall SO/9 rate.
Fastballs
Ervin Santana: The Mariners are presently implied to score 4.9 runs, but Santana has actually averaged 46.0 FanDuel points this season in his four outings against teams implied to score at least 4.7 runs. His FanDuel salary is almost evenly between Pineda’s and Kluber’s salaries, and his recent Statcast data is comparable to theirs.
Jhoulys Chacin: Chacin has exceeded salary-based expectations in six home starts this season, averaging 22.70 DraftKings points in those outings. He’s the third cheapest pitcher in the early slate and a serviceable SP2.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Nationals lead all early-slate teams in implied run total, yet the Padres have the top-rated FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
The Padres lead all teams on either slate with a .662 recent opponent wOBA and a .737 recent opponent ISO, and their 87 Team Value Rating on FanDuel is the second-highest mark in the all-day slate. Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe all have positive recent Statcast data, and projected leadoff hitter Jose Pirela has a hit in eight straight games and a slate-best 251-foot recent batted ball distance. Reds lefty Amir Garrett has allowed 10 home runs and 23 earned runs in his last four starts. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed slate-high marks with a batted ball distance of 251 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 61 percent. Even though the Padres aren’t great against lefties, in the slate their projected lineup actually has the the second-highest splits-adjusted wOBA at .315.
The two highest-rated DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model are covered in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, so we’ll look at the White Sox, who have the highest-rated stack that doesn’t belong to the Orioles or Astros:
Cheap at $3,300, Tim Anderson leads shortstops in the main slate with a distance differential of +35 feet. Orioles’ righty Dylan Bundy has a slate-high 54 percent recent fly ball rate and has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts. It’s concerning that their implied total has dropped 0.3 runs since the line opened and that No. 1 hitter Leury Garcia could sit for the third straight game with a sore left hand, but the White Sox could have low ownership, given that their game currently has a 19 percent chance of precipitation.
Batters
Ian Kinsler rivals Aaron Judge with his Statcast data, yet Kinsler costs $2,000 less than Judge on DraftKings and has only two doubles and one RBI over the fortnight to show for his recent mashing. Teammates Alex Avila and J.D. Martinez rank in the top three in recent hard hit rate, and they are facing a pitcher who could be on a pitch count in Taijuan Walker. That will come in handy, as the Tigers have a solid 84 Opponent Bullpen Strength rating, and Avila and Martinez have averaged a combined +3.92 Plus/Minus against teams with similarly bad bullpens.
Wilmer Flores leads all hitters in the main slate with a 0.478 wOBA and 0.39 ISO. He’s averaged a +1.41 FanDuel Plus/Minus against left-handed starters, and his salary of $2,700 should be considered a bargain based on his history against lefties. Teammate Yoenis Cespedes also ranks in the top three in wOBA and ISO, the but the Mets made it clear last night that he’s subject to being removed from games early. The plan was to play him on Monday and Tuesday, but since he had a shortened stint on Tuesday, he may play for the third straight game.
The Phillies offer the third- and fourth-highest Team Value Ratings on DraftKings and FanDuel despite having just the ninth-highest implied run total in the main slate. They have the sixth-highest ISO against left-handed pitchers this season, and they’re facing a lefty who has allowed four homers in his first three career starts. Cameron Rupp usually plays against left-handed pitchers, and he leads the Phillies with a .458 wOBA and .337 ISO against lefties. He costs the minimum on FanDuel and $2,700 on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
