The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers a nine-game slate that begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings, and Yu Darvish is the second-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $10,000:
In 14.2 innings against the Braves this season, Stephen Strasburg has 21 strikeouts. Ender Inciarte is the only hitter in the projected Braves lineup with a positive batted ball distance differential, and Matt Adams is their only hitter with a positive hard hit rate differential. The Braves are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.6 runs, and the Nationals are currently -223 moneyline favorites (per our Vegas Dashboard).
Despite having a -67 Recent Batted Ball Luck, Strasburg has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight starts, and historically he’s averaged a +4.36 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 72.7 percent Consistency Rating with comparable Rec BBL scores (per our Trends tool). Pitchers with similar moneyline odds and K Predictions have historically averaged a +4.31 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 34.0 percent guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership rate. When Strasburg has matched the trend, he’s averaged 33.71 DraftKings points and exceeded salary-based expectations in all eight instances.
Strasburg has season-high salaries of $12,700 on DraftKings and $11,400 on FanDuel, and he leads all pitchers on today’s slate in nearly every conceivable category, including monthly Consistency Rating. Elite pitching is scarce on this nine-game slate, and Strasburg will likely be the chalk play in every format. As such, he might warrant some contrarian fade consideration in GPPs: The Braves’ implied total has increased 0.5 runs since the line opened. Nonetheless, as evidenced by his elite 12.9 SO/9 against the Braves this season, Strasburg has an enormous ceiling: He’s outproduced the slate’s other pitchers by at least 9.0 DraftKings and 12.0 FanDuel points per game over the last month.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Jacob deGrom pitched 4.0 innings in each of his last two starts, causing a dramatic FanDuel salary decrease to $9,700, which seems warranted, given his Statcast data. Over the last half-month he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 229 feet and hard hit rate of 48 percent, and he has a -62 Rec BBL, indicating that he’s been lucky to score 9.0 and -6.0 points in his last two outings. He has the worst recent wOBA and ISO allowed on the slate — but his current 8.2 K Prediction is first. Pitchers with similarly destitute Statcast differentials and solid K Predictions have enjoyed success:
A potential pivot to Strasburg, deGrom is the only other pitcher with an opponent implied total lower than 4.0 runs. He’s similarly priced, and due to his recent blunders he could have reduced ownership in GPPs. Pairing the two pitchers on DraftKings would require extensive salary cap gymnastics, but the pairing would likely be rare and could provide a worthwhile ownership advantage in the event that deGrom bounces back in a park where he holds a +5.36 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Values
Value on this slate may be as simple as finding a cheap pitcher to pair with Strasburg. Fortunately, seven of the nine cheapest DraftKings pitchers have Bargain Ratings of at least 63 percent. Only three of them are favored, one of whom has a K prediction greater than 5.9.
Alex Meyer faces a Yankees team that has scored 38 runs in the last three games. However, he has the second-lowest HR/9 rate and second-highest SO/9 rate on the slate. His K prediction currently ranks second among pitchers, and he’s limited hitters to a 56 percent ground ball rate over his last two starts. Cheap pitchers with similar K Predictions have averaged a +2.86 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Meyer is aided by an 83 Park Factor.
Jameson Taillon won’t have any limitations in his first start since undergoing surgery for testicular cancer, and he’s relatively cheap at less than $7,000 on DraftKings. The Rockies have only one hitter in Ian Desmond with a positive exit velocity or hard hit rate differential, and Taillon has limited hitters to a 25 percent fly ball rate over the past year. The Pirates are presently -131 moneyline favorites, and Taillon’s 86 Park Factor is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: He’s been priced down to his lowest DraftKings salary in our database, and although he has the highest SO/9 on the slate over the past year it belies his career-worst 9.77 SO/9 this season. Although he did strike out eight batters two games ago against the the Astros (who are implied for 4.7 runs), Darvish also allowed seven hits, three runs, and two stolen bases in only five innings.
Rick Porcello: The Red Sox currently hold -201 moneyline odds and have received 80 percent of the moneyline bets. The baseline production for such marks has been an average of 37.06 FanDuel points, and for pitchers with recent Statcast data like Porcello’s the number has increased to 39.87.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated stacks in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models belong to the Mariners and Twins, two teams covered in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks and Three Key MLB Players. Their game is also the only one that could be delayed or postponed due to rain. If you want to avoid the possibility of precipitation, you can pivot to stacks with similar rating totals, like the five-man Orioles stack, which is currently the third-highest rated group in the CSURAM88 Model:
The Orioles’ 83 Team Value Rating is the third-highest mark on DraftKings, and they’re implied to score the third-most runs on the slate. White Sox righty Mike Pelfrey has the lowest SO/9 rate on the slate, which should improve Chris Davis‘ GPP case, since he has the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Manny Machado‘s status will be clarified following batting practice, but he could miss his fifth straight game after getting cleated in the left hand.
The Mariners, Twins, and Red Sox have the highest-rated FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model, but the Red Sox are also discussed in today’s stacking piece so let’s pivot to the Astros, whose four-man group below could have extremely low ownership:
Every hitter in the stack possesses a Bargain Rating of at least 82 percent, and Brian McCann leads every hitter with nine Pro Trends. Yulieski Gurriel has a distance differential of +42 feet and hard hit rate differential of +15 percentage points. In fact, all four hitters have positive Statcast differentials, and they’re facing a pitcher in Darvish with a 46 percent fly ball rate and 43 percent hard hit rate allowed over his past two outings. George Springer has consistently exceeded 20.0 FanDuel points when Darvish has been on the mound:
Batters
Gregory Polanco leads the Pirates with seven stolen bases this season as well as a 54 percent recent fly ball rate, a +29-foot distance differential, and a 60 Rec BBL on DraftKings. His salary has been reduced to $3,300 for the first time since last July, and he’s been a solid investment at that salary range with a +2.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 64.2 percent Consistency Rating. Working in Polanco’s favor is the Pirates’ positive reverse line movement:
The White Sox rank first with a 0.353 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season, and Matt Davidson leads all hitters with 10 DraftKings Pro Trends. His dual eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings could reduce his ownership due to the positional overlap with Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier, who lead the White Sox in ISO. Davidson’s 78 Rec BBL contrasts with the -75 by Abreu, who ranks second-to-last among first basemen with a 184-foot recent batted ball distance and 56 percent recent ground ball rate.
Odubel Herrera has recorded a hit in 10 straight games and a slate-best +46-foot distance differential. He’s also moved up to the leadoff spot following Cesar Hernandez‘s oblique injury. Leadoff hitters with similar recent Statcast data have averaged a +3.65 Plus/Minus and 54.8 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel, where Herrera provides a 63 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
