The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a split slate with four teams participating in doubleheaders. The early eight-game DraftKings slate begins at 1:10 pm ET and includes the first game of the Mets-Braves doubleheader, which is not included in the early seven-game FanDuel slate that starts at 2:15 pm ET. The six-game main slate starts at 7:15 pm ET on both sites.
Pitchers
Studs
Chris Sale and Carlos Martinez headline the expensive pitchers, a group that has more residents on FanDuel than DraftKings, where the most expensive pitchers all have Bargain Ratings south of 42 percent:
Sale faces a team with the second-best ISO against left-handed pitchers this season. The Tigers weren’t a nuisance during an April matchup in which Sale recorded 10 strikeouts in 7.2 innings, but Sale has allowed 11 earned runs and 22 hits during his last three starts. Sale’s 207-foot recent batted ball distance allowed is a mediocre mark in the main slate.
Sale has averaged a +13.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 91 percent Consistency Rating this season, and after snapping a streak of at least 10 strikeouts in eight straight starts he has consecutive outings of nine strikeouts. The lone blemish on his resume is a recent matchup against the White Sox, who claim the best wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. The Tigers aren’t far behind with the third-best wOBA. Lefty pitchers facing the Tigers have averaged a -2.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season. To his credit, Sale had 29.65 DraftKings points against them on April 10.
Sale currently has the second-highest K Prediction in the main slate, yet he’s facing a team implied to score 3.9 runs. The decision to pay up for Sale or focus on expensive hitters may be softened by pitchers with similar K Predictions and higher moneyline odds — specifically Alex Wood and Luis Severino. Both cost less than $10,000 and have better recent Statcast data than Sale. This may be one slate in which Sale could be scooped up at an ownership advantage.
Wood will be activated off the disabled list after dealing with sternum inflammation, and there’s been no indication his innings or pitch count will be limited. He’s thrown between 88 and 96 pitches in his last five outings. Three of them failed to extend beyond five innings, but at least he hasn’t allowed a run in four straight starts. He notched at least eight strikeouts in the three starts he was limited to 5.0 innings.
Wood has the fourth-best SO/9 rate at 11.81 and the best ground ball rate at 68.3 percent this season. Both attributes will come in handy as he faces a team with the second-best ISO against left-handed pitchers. Wood currently leads all pitchers with 11 DraftKings Pro Trends — a trend itself that has resulted in a +4.71 Plus/Minus with a 65.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). The Dodgers have the best moneyline odds in the main slate (-237), and Wood has averaged 43.0 FanDuel points in three starts with similar Vegas odds. Overall, pitchers have performed swimmingly under comparable circumstances:
For the second time this week, Jeff Samardzija and Martinez are pitching on the same day, and they’re the most expensive options in the early slate. Jose Berrios costs the same as Samardzija on FanDuel, but he offers the sixth-worst K prediction. Martinez and Samardzija have solid K Predictions and Park Factors, and their recent Statcast data is almost a draw. They are the only pitchers in the early slate facing teams with implied run totals lower than 4.0, and the Cardinals lead all teams with -202 moneyline odds.
Martinez faces the less potent offense between the two, and he’s averaged a +9.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 starts. Samardzija is much cheaper on both sites, but he faces a projected lineup with a slate-best 0.363 wOBA. Martinez’s $12,300 salary on DraftKings is his second-highest salary in our database, and his average DraftKings guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership on Monday was 17.33 percent compared to Samardzija’s 53.9 percent (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard). Samardzija cost $2,000 less at the time, and he’s still $1,400 cheaper than Martinez today, a factor which could depress Martinez’s ownership once more.
Values
Marcus Stroman is not an elite strikeout pitcher, but when he faced the Mariners earlier this season, Stroman recorded nine strikeouts in 6.0 innings. He’s limited hitters to a recent batted ball distance of 196 feet and ground ball rate of 57 percent, but he lacks tournament upside, as he hasn’t pitched more than 6.0 innings in seven straight starts. Still, if you want to roster the batters from one of the teams implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the main slate, you might need to consider Stroman as a relatively cheap pitching option.
Ian Kennedy is one of three pitchers in the early slate with a K Prediction of at least 7.0, and he’s facing a Padres team against which pitchers have averaged a league-best +5.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season. Kennedy hasn’t pitched beyond the fifth inning in four straight starts, and he’s also allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts, which reduces his viability as a top-tier option in the early slate. However, the Padres have recorded the highest strikeout percentage and second-worst wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and only two hitters in their projected lineup have recorded a fly ball rate greater than 32 percent.
Fastballs
Luis Severino: He’s notched at least seven strikeouts in four straight starts, and when he faced the Orioles two starts prior he recorded eight strikeouts in 6.1 innings while limiting them to one run. Severino is one of three pitchers in the main slate with a K Prediction greater than 6.4, and he faces a projected lineup with the slate’s lowest SO/AB and third-lowest wOBA. He’s also limited hitters to a recent batted ball distance of 180 feet and ground ball rate of 67 percent.
Ariel Miranda: His last outing was a complete game in which he struck out nine batters on one of the worst teams in MLB against left-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays haven’t been as lousy against lefties, but the last time they faced Miranda they struck out eight times in 5.0 innings. Miranda hasn’t allowed more than two runs in five straight starts, and left-handed pitchers facing the Blue Jays this season have averaged a league-best +6.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model for the early slate belongs to the Cardinals, a team with a slate-best 81 Team Value Rating (per the Vegas Dashboard):
The Cardinals are presently implied to score 5.2 runs, the slate’s second-highest mark (although that will likely change once we get the over/under for the Rockies-Cubs game). For now, four of the top-six hitters in the Bales Model are included in this stack, and Matt Carpenter leads all hitters in the early slate with 10 Pro Trends. A strong selling point for a Cardinals stack is Phillies starter Nick Pivetta, who has a 1.88 WHIP and a 1.923 HR/9 rate and has failed to pitch more than 5.0 innings in any start. The Cardinals also have a solid 72 Weather Rating, and every hitter in their projected lineup offers at least five Pro Trends.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees:
The recent Statcast data for this expensive foursome is absurd: Three of the four hitters have hard hit rates of at least 44 percent, batted ball distances of at least 240 feet, and fly ball rates of at least 41 percent. Matt Holliday and Aaron Hicks meet all of those thresholds. Orioles righty Chris Tillman has the highest WHIP and second-lowest SO/9 on the six-game slate, and when he faced the Yankees two starts prior he allowed five earned runs and three homers in 2.2 innings. Holliday accounted for two of those home runs, and he leads all first basemen in the slate in nearly every pertinent Statcast category.
Batters
The wind is projected to blow 17 miles per hour toward left-center field in Wrigley Field. The over/under has yet to be set for the game, but it’s likely both teams will be implied to score at least 5.0 runs. This game offers a slate-best 82 Weather Rating, and eight of the projected hitters on either side have recorded recent fly ball rates of at least 40 percent, led by Kyle Schwarber‘s 70 percent mark. The first six hitters in the projected Rockies lineup have FanDuel Bargain Ratings of at least 63 percent, and Cubs’ righty Eddie Butler has the highest WHIP in the slate at 1.977.
The Mets will face a pitcher making his major-league debut, and it’s expected that Yoenis Cespedes will return for one of the two games. If he plays in the first game, the Mets will have three of the top-four ISO hitters in the early DraftKings slate. Wilmer Flores leads all hitters with a 0.479 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and he’s averaged a +1.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus against lefties. Lucas Duda leads all hitters with a 0.429 ISO, and he leads all first basemen with a 58 percent hard hit rate. While the over/under has not yet been set for either of the two games, the Mets have recorded the highest fly ball rate and lowest BABIP against left-handed pitchers this season, increasing their GPP attractiveness in a hitter-friendly park.
The Indians lead all teams with a 6.3-run implied total in the main slate — a mark that has increased 0.7 runs since the line opened. Austin Jackson leads the team with a 0.402 wOBA and 0.237 ISO against left-handed pitchers. Roberto Perez is the only other hitter in the projected lineup with a positive wOBA differential against lefties, a group of pitchers against whom the Indians have averaged a -1.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 29.4 percent Consistency Rating this season. White Sox lefty David Holmberg is a converted reliever, and he threw 72 and 74 pitchers in his first two outings. If you’re going to fade the Indians due to their poor production against lefties, consider excluding Francisco Lindor from that list, as he has averaged 13.45 FanDuel points in 22 games against left-handed starters, and he leads the Indians with a 93 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
