The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday offers a 14-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a relatively limited group of studs; only four pitchers on DraftKings have salaries of $8,000 or more:
Corey Kluber stands out as the class of this group. He’s more than $1,000 more expensive than any other pitcher on the slate, but he leads the slate in K Prediction (8.2), opponent implied team total (3.3), and moneyline odds (-249). Pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically done well on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
He has an excellent matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that struggles against right-handed pitchers with poor splits-adjusted marks: In the slate, the White Sox have the third-worst wOBA at .293 and sixth-highest K rate at 23.7 percent. He also has great Statcast data from his most recent start with a batted ball distance of 173 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, ground ball rate of 66 percent, and hard hit rate of 33 percent.
If not for weather concerns, Kluber would be extremely chalky, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating. However, the current forecast calls for a 68 percent chance of precipitation, which puts his status for cash games in jeopardy. A rain delay could be especially damning for Kluber since this is only his second start since returning from the disabled list. Be sure to monitor the forecast as lineup lock approaches.
Rich Hill has been pedestrian to start the season:
His mediocrity in part is due to his low pitch count. He is yet to pitch into the sixth inning in any start and has averaged fewer than 80 pitches per game. He did, however, hit 97 pitches in his last start, so Hill might have the potential to go deeper in this game if he pitches well.
Hill also has excellent data in his matchup with the Reds. He’s second only to Kluber with moneyline odds of -190 and an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs, and his K Prediction of 7.1 ranks third. His recent Statcast data is also solid, especially his exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and his line drive rate of only four percent. Given the lack of other quality pitching options on the slate, it’s hard to ignore the upside Hill possesses despite his prior results.
Values
Like Hill, Brad Peacock has been on a limited pitch count since transitioning from the bullpen to the starting rotation. Unlike Hill, he’s still managed to post excellent fantasy results, racking up at least eight strikeouts in all three of his starts:
The strikeouts might not be a fluke: Peacock’s K/9 of 11.21 is the highest mark on the slate. He draws a great matchup against the Angels, whose projected lineup is without Mike Trout and has a .276 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Peacock has moneyline odds of -177 and an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs — the third-best marks on the slate — and he has an 82 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Michael Wacha has some concerning Statcast data over his last three starts with a distance differential of +30 feet, but his fastball also has a speed differential of +1.5 miles per hour. Wacha is a -170 moneyline favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and speed differentials have historically returned value on FanDuel:
Given his $7,300 DraftKings salary, Wacha is likely to be popular as a second pitching option.
Matt Moore has been dreadful over his last ten starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.46 on DraftKings, but the pitching options on the slate are so limited that he deserves consideration. For starters, his K Prediction of 8.0 is the slate’s second-highest mark, and pitching in San Francisco also affords him a Park Factor of 94. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically returned great value:
He also has a pretty solid matchup against a projected Twins lineup that has a wOBA of .296 and K rate of 28.3 percent over the past 12 months. Being only a slim favorite, Moore should have relatively low ownership, which Pro subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Fastballs
Tanner Roark: He’s gone at least seven innings in three straight games, returning value in all of them. He has a relatively tough matchup today against a Rangers offense that is 10th in the league in runs scored, but their projected lineup has struck out in 28.4 percent of its at-bats against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months.
Joe Biagini: Biagini has been great over his last two starts, striking out at least six batters and allowing no more than two earned runs in each of them, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of +56 suggests that he’s played better than he’s produced: His recent batted ball distance of 184 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, ground ball rate of 66 percent, and hard hit rate of 25 percent are elite marks.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, its easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Red Sox:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Red Sox lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.7 runs, and they also have the highest Team Value Rating at 82. Detroit pitcher Jordan Zimmermann is coming off his best start of the season, but he still has awful 12-month marks in both WHIP (1.651) and HR/9 (2.109).
The top four-man stack on FanDuel belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks, but since Justin Bailey covered them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks let’s focus on the Washington Nationals instead:
With 5.1 implied runs, the Nationals are one of seven teams with team totals of at least 5.0 runs. In what Vegas has implied to be a relatively high-scoring day, all of the stacked Nationals provide solid value with Bargain Ratings of at least 76 percent:
Rangers righty Andrew Cashner has a solid 3.39 ERA so far this season, but his advanced stats aren’t good; his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is almost a run and a half higher than his ERA at 4.87. The Nationals are facing a pitcher who looks ready to regress.
Batters
Matt Carpenter recently returned to the leadoff, which has historically provided batters with more fantasy value than any other spot in the order. Carpenter in particular has thrived when batting first:
With one of the slate’s highest Recent Batted Ball Luck Scores at +80, Carpenter has some impressive Statcast data over the last 15 days with a 243-foot batted ball distance, 93 mph exit velocity, and 41 percent hard hit rate. Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson has allowed four home runs and 14 earned runs over his last three starts, so this could be a spot for some positive regression.
The Pirates have an Opposing Bullpen Rating of 93. If they can get past Marlins starter Vance Worley early they’ll have a chance to get multiple at-bats against an overworked group of relievers. One Pirates batter in particularly good recent form is Andrew McCutchen, who has a distance differential of +17 feet and a hard hit differential of +15 percentage points. Batters with comparable differentials and Opposing Bullpen Ratings have historically been good values on FanDuel:
Like Carpenter, Aaron Judge has also recently moved up in the batting order, and his recent Statcast data is excellent:
Batters with comparable distance averages have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.50 on FanDuel, and the Yankees could be an overlooked team tonight; their implied team total of 4.9 runs is good, but it’s only eighth on the slate. They’re second in the league with 5.53 runs per game.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
