The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series in which we review the ownership dynamics of a previous slate.
On Monday, June 5, the seven-game main slate featured just one pitcher (Carlos Martinez) priced at $10,000 or higher on DraftKings, and he was in a suboptimal matchup against the Reds. The Cardinals had a slate-high implied total of 5.4 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), and there were just two other teams implied for 5.0 or more runs.
Per our Lineups page, the Phillies and Braves game had an extremely high chance of rain, which likely contributed to the ownership dynamic of this slate, despite the high total for the Braves against Nick Pivetta. Let’s look more in-depth.
June 5th Ownership Review
Pitchers
The data below is from our DFS Ownership Dashboard, with which Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) of all stakes shortly after lock:
Jeff Samardzija led all pitchers with 53.9 percent average ownership. Heading into this game, Samardzija was averaging a stellar +4.37 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool.) It wasn’t surprising to see him with high ownership in this slate: He faced a Brewers team implied for 3.7 runs, and he was tied for the slate’s second-highest K Prediction at 6.7.
Sean Manaea was the popular DraftKings SP2 option at $7,800; he came with 41.67 percent average ownership. This game was essentially a pick’em — Manaea was a -108 moneyline favorite against the Blue Jays — and he came with a modest 5.9 K Prediction. Further, he had a strong 77 Park Factor at home in Oakland. Pitchers with similar Vegas data, K Prediction, and Park Factor rating have historically averaged a +1.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
After Manaea and Samardzija, ownership was evenly spread out between Dan Straily, Gio Gonzalez, Junior Guerra, and J.A. Happ. Outside of Straily ($9,100), Gonzalez, Guerra, and Happ were all priced within $700 of each other, and their opposing teams were all implied for 4.4 runs or less.
Hitters
Outside of Buster Posey and Brandon Belt, the slate’s highest-owned batters were on teams implied for at least 5.0 runs.
The Cardinals owned the slate’s highest-implied team total at 5.4 runs, and Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Dexter Fowler, and Stephen Piscotty especially were chalky options.
The Braves had the slate’s third-highest implied run total at 5.2 runs, but this game had major weather concerns, which likely pushed DFS players to shift even more ownership to ‘safer’ teams with similar totals in the Astros (5.3) and Royals (4.8). The Astros consisted of some of the most expensive bats on the slate: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer all had top-five salaries but still saw high ownership.
The weather concerns in the Phillies game likely led to them being under-owned, despite their matchup against Bartolo Colon, who had allowed 17 hits and nine earned runs in his last two starts. Odubel Herrera had a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of 80 heading into this game, along with exceptional Statcast data; he finished the night with 30 DraftKings points and just 7.29 percent average ownership.
Takeaways
- Sometimes eating the chalk isn’t the worst idea when it comes to pitching options on a smaller slate. Manaea and Samardzija were the two highest-owned pitchers and finished as the top-two highest scorers among pitching options.
- Most DFS players will gravitate toward high Vegas totals; dipping down to a moderate total can help differentiate your lineup.
- Targeting teams in good spots with a chance of rain can be the best way to get batters at discounted ownership.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of slates.
