TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN, hosts this week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic. The course is traditionally difficult, as the average winning score has been 12 under par the past four years. The cut line has been one over par in three of those four years. (It was par in 2014.) Something to keep in mind for your tilting pleasure: The back nine is historically more difficult than the front nine, so if your golfers start on the back nine it’s likely they could be making the turn over par but could make up some of those strokes on the front.
Keep an eye out for withdrawals this week. Plenty of golfers who qualified for the US Open earlier this week such as Steve Stricker, Jamie Lovemark, and Keegan Bradley have already withdrawn and guys like J.T. Poston could still choose to do so.
As was the case last week, contenders here will need the ability to make birdies while avoiding bogeys. For bogey avoidance, we will concentrate on Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Scrambling (SC). For birdie potential, we’ll consider Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg).
To Rickie or not to Rickie
Rickie Folwer has scored more than 100 DraftKings points in four of his last eight tournaments and is likely to be one of the highest-owned golfers in the field this week. Pro Subscribers will be able to review just how chalky Folwer is across tournaments of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock. He currently has the highest Vegas odds to win and carries the highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fowler is also one of the top gofers in all eight of our Player Models.
Fowler’s 68.4 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) and 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score both rank second overall this week, and he is tied for eighth in the field with his 62.2 LT SC percentage. Fowler’s 19.0 Recent Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) is first overall, and his 68.9 LT GIR percentage is 14th. He placed 13th here in his only appearance back in 2014.
Per our Trends tool, golfers with comparable salaries and recent metrics have previously produced a healthy +8.58 Plus/Minus with a 63.9 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings.
For more on Fowler, listen to what Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Colin Davy, and Bryan Mears have to say on this week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Francesco Molinari: Like Fowler, Molinari is likely to be heavily owned: We currently have him projected at 21-25 percent in large-field guaranteed prize pools. Francesco’s 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score is fourth, his 17.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is third, and his 68.5 Recent GIR percentage is tied for fourth overall. Molinari has second- and sixth-place finishes in his last two events and was 34th here last year.
Daniel Berger: Coming back as the defending champion, Berger hasn’t played since mid-May in THE PLAYERS Championship, where he finished 65th. Berger is tied for sixth overall with his 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score, and his 13.7 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks 11th.
Kyle Stanley: Stanley is running hot: He has three top-10 finishes in his last five tournaments, and he is tied for fourth overall with his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score. He’s an intriguing case this week because he’s likely to be one of the highest-owned players in the field based on his recent form and statistical fit for this course, but he hasn’t finished better than 49th here in four trips and has missed the cut twice, including last year.
Charl Schwartzel: Charl touted himself on Twitter today . . .
I started hitting the ball much beter on the weekend, I entered @fesjcmemphis to see if I can find some better form before @usopengolf
— Charl Schwartzel (@CA_Schwartzel) June 6, 2017
. . . and like Berger he’s tied for sixth in the field with his 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score. Schwartzel withdrew from the Byron Nelson after making the cut, claiming that he couldn’t grip the club because of a wrist injury, but he did come back and finish 35th at the Memorial last week.
Seamus Power: Power’s 68.7 LT GIR percentage ranks 15th in the field, and he is tied for 15th overall with his 13.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Power is making his debut at TPC Southwind, but he has made the cut in three straight PGA Tour events. At $6,400, Power is a viable option in a stars-and-scrubs lineup.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Phil Mickelson is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Mickelson — along with Brooks Koepka — has finished tied for second and third here the past two years. Mickelson also has a second-place finish from 2013 to go along with his 11th-place finish here in 2011: His 67.9 Course Adj Rd Score is the best in the field among golfers who have made more than one start at TPC Southwind. Phil’s 60.3 LT SC percentage is 17th overall, and his 14.9 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks third.
Humpnostication
Ian Poulter has been playing like a man possessed since some bad math by the PGA Tour caused him to lose his PGA Tour card for a brief time, an issue eventually rectified by fellow golfer Brian Gay. I originally planned to humpnosticate upon Poulter — he’s tied for fourth with his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score and finished sixth here in 2014 — but if DFS Twitter is any indication Poulter will be touted quite heavily around the industry. That said, I’ll go with Poulter’s savior, Mr. Gay, who won here in 2009 and finished sixth last season. Moreover, his 63.0 LT SC percentage ranks third overall, and scrambling is a valuable skill to have at this track.
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Good luck this week!
