This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Justin Upton: Outfielder, Tigers
The Tigers current 5.3-run implied total is the second-highest mark on a slate with Coors Field (per the Vegas Dashboard). They don’t presently have a strong foothold among the top stacks in the Bales or CSURAM88 Models, which is peculiar given their top-two Team Value Rating on FanDuel and DraftKings. With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters, and we can generate a Tigers stack:
Angels righty Jesse Chavez has allowed at least one home run in nine straight starts, and Upton leads the Tigers with a 0.65 HR/AB over the last year, 260-foot recent batted ball distance, and 48 percent recent fly ball rate. He’s homered in his last two games and averaged 23.63 FanDuel points per game over his last four. He leads all outfielders with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel, sporting a 90 percent Bargain Rating on the latter site.
Chris Archer: Pitcher, Rays
Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Archer lead the slate in K Prediction and rank in the top six in K/9 this season. Archer has the best Park Factor on the slate, and he faces a team with the lowest implied total. The Rays also have the fourth-best moneyline odds, and pitchers with similar data have performed well (per our Trends tool):
When matching for this trend previously, Archer recorded 25.3, 22.7, 26.5, and 40.4 DraftKings points — all of which are higher than his current salary-based expectation. The White Sox have struggled against right-handed pitchers this season, recording the third-lowest split-adjusted wOBA. On a slate with Scherzer, Ray, Jake Arrieta, and Jacob deGrom, Archer may have reduced tournament ownership, which Pro subscribers can review shortly after lock in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Jason Kipnis: Second Basemen, Indians
Kipnis is one of eight projected Indians hitters with at least five DraftKings Pro Trends, and he’s projected to bat leadoff at Coors Field for a team with a slate-best 5.5-run implied total. Leadoff hitters have averaged a higher Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating (and ownership rate) at Coors Field than at any other major league stadium:
Kipnis costs a season-high $4,100 on FanDuel (the highest salary for a second baseman on the slate), and his $4,600 DraftKings salary is the sixth-highest mark at his position. Over the last 13 games, Kipnis has averaged a 48 percent fly ball rate and 15-foot batted ball distance differential, and Coors Field leadoff hitters with similar Statcast data have averaged a +2.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 53.7 percent Consistency Rating. Given that the Indians-Rockies game currently has a 55 percent chance of precipitation, it’s possible that he’ll be rosterable at an ownership discount.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
