One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings (DK) at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and examine reasons why they are primed for success in this week’s Sunday/Monday slate.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer – Projected Plus/Minus: +9.5
After proving to be a bit of a disappointment in his much anticipated matchup with the disastrous New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, Hoyer quietly rebounded with a solid performance in Week 13 against the Buffalo Bills. Back up at the top of our Projected Plus/Minus rankings again this week, Hoyer is our fourth-highest projected quarterback of the week and you can deploy him at a near minimum salary of $5,200. Despite exceeding his value almost every week out, one bad outing pushed his slowly climbing salary back down to the minimum.
In a plus matchup with the New England Patriots – owners of an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +3.3 – Hoyer is in a decent spot this week. As we’ve seen in the past, quarterbacks in comparable game situations – a Projected Plus/Minus of 7.25 or greater and an Opponent Plus/Minus of 3.0 or greater – have had good success.
Having thrown for multiple touchdown passes in all but one of his previous eight games, Hoyer actually possesses a semi-safe floor (the fifth-highest among all quarterbacks, per our projections). With Tyrod Taylor and many other low-priced options projected very comparably this week, there are plenty of places to turn in cash games if you’re looking to spend down. Hoyer should prove to be a low-owned tournament option that could surprise, as he is also the owner of our fifth-highest ceiling this week.
Running Back
C.J. Spiller – Projected Plus/Minus: +10.4
Spiller is not a player that evokes confidence in many, but with his minimum price and new opportunity, he actually makes some sense this week. Facing a stiff Tampa Bay run defense, owners of an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of -0.7, New Orleans will likely be forced to air it out. As the Saints preferred passing downs back, this should set up well for the former Buffalo Bill.
Looking at past running backs priced under $4,000 and owning a Projected Plus/Minus of 10 or greater, they’ve all crushed their low expected point totals.
With Tampa Bay allowing over five receptions per game to running backs this season, it shouldn’t be difficult for Spiller to hit his value. There is a large amount of risk with him, but at his minimum price it becomes far more tolerable.
Wide Receiver
Danny Amendola – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.9
Amendola is becoming a regular in this space, as his price has been slow to climb the past few weeks. Averaging 12 targets, 8.67 receptions, 86 receiving yards and 0.33 touchdowns over his past three weeks, there isn’t really any strong reason to consider fading Amendola.
That being said, this matchup with the Texans is not ideal, as they rank eighth in DK points allowed to wide receivers this year and have had success against comparably projected wide outs thus far.
Despite the subpar matchup, you’re not finding players priced at $5,200 getting 12 targets a game from a quarterback of Tom Brady’s ilk. Only needing 11.59 DK points to meet his value, Amendola is a good bet to once again provide a nice return on your investment.
Tight End
Jacob Tamme – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.4
Tamme was a disappointment last week against the Buccaneers, although the entire Falcons team was disappointing as a whole as well. In a tough matchup with division foe Carolina this week, Tamme and the team will look to rebound.
While the Panthers have dominated on the defensive side of the ball in general, they have allowed some production to the tight end position this season, including Ben Watson last week. With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6, the matchup isn’t horrible for Tamme.
Other tight ends facing comparable situations have fared okay in the past – certainly not matchup winning numbers, but solid value. At $3,400, Tamme needs less than six points to exceed his value this week. With Julio Jones potentially drawing the majority of the Panthers attention in the passing game, Tamme could serve as a nice outlet for Matt Ryan and this struggling Falcons’ pass offense.
With many owners likely to gravitate to a highly discounted Austin Sefarian-Jenkins if they’re spending down at the position, Tamme should serve as a nice pivot that should have low ownership this week.
