The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series in which we review the ownership dynamics of a previous slate.
On Sunday, June 4, the main slate consisted of nine games headlined by Chris Sale visiting the Orioles. The Tigers had a slate-high implied total of 6.3 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), while every other team was implied to score between 3.8 and 5.3 runs. Although the Tigers had a high total, their game against the White Sox also had greater than a 50 percent chance of precipitation (per our MLB Lineups page).
On a slate with one stud pitcher and weather concerns for the lineup with the best Vegas data, how did the ownership shake out? Let’s find out.
June 4th Ownership Analysis
Pitchers
The data below is from our DFS Ownership Dashboard, with which Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes shortly after lock:
Sale posted his usual sky-high ownership, which is what everyone should expect at this point.
The intriguing pitcher in the slate ended up being Justin Verlander, who posted the second-highest mark despite the Tigers’ weather concerns. Ultimately Verlander was pulled in the second inning due to tightness in his groin, but it’s easy to see why sharps were willing to roster him. Excluding games at Coors Field, pitchers on teams with implied totals of more than six runs have posted a +1.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 60.4 percent Consistency Rating since 2014 (per our MLB Trends tool). Additionally, Verlander has historically dominated at Comerica Park and against the White Sox specifically. These factors, along with a slate-high implied run differential of +2.4 runs, fueled Verlander’s ownership.
As for other notable pitchers: Both Trevor Bauer and Kenta Maeda were road favorites, while Luis Severino had allowed two or fewer runs in three consecutive starts and had done a great job of limiting big hits (per our Player Models).
On a slate with one clear-cut stud pitcher, the public chose to pay up for Sale and also take a chance on Verlander in suboptimal weather conditions. One commonality shared by all five of the highest-owned pitchers was their strikeout upside: They were the slate’s top-five pitchers in average K/9 over the past 12 months. Rostering pitchers on the road or in suboptimal matchups is risky; rostering pitchers with strikeout upside mitigates the risk.
Hitters
Despite the weather, the Tigers accounted for five of the slate’s 10 highest-owned hitters:
When a team’s implied total increases by more than a run, it’s probably a good idea to have exposure to that lineup. Hitters have posted a +0.83 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 17 percent Upside Rating when their implied totals have increased by at least one run since 2014. Additionally, hitters crush with implied totals over six runs. Ultimately the market of DFS players decided the lineup’s upside outweighed any weather concerns.
Takeaways
On a slate with one stud pitcher and one high-total lineup, the public went with the chalk. Here are some specifics:
- Sale was the highest-owned pitcher per usual, but the public also rode Verlander at home despite a 50-plus percent chance of rain.
- The five highest-owned pitchers were also those with the most strikeout upside on the slate. In the absence of great matchups, the public prioritized this upside.
- The Tigers’ massive implied total drove ownership: Their 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 hitters were among the slate’s six batters with average ownership rates above 20 percent.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of slates.
