The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a nine-game main slate at 1:07 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers today above $9,000 on FanDuel, headlined by Boston ace Chris Sale:
Sale has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season — his 3.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is first by 0.9 points — although he did fail to meet value in his last game:
Still, he’s averaged a robust +14.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and he still scored 33.0 FanDuel points in his last start. He offers immense safety on a slate-by-slate basis. Today’s matchup doesn’t seem great — he’s in a hitter’s park in Baltimore facing an Orioles team currently implied for 3.6 runs — but the circumstances are better than they were last game when he faced a White Sox team that ranked first in the league with a .358 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. The Orioles rank 14th in that category with a .316 wOBA, and five of the six batters at the top of their projected lineup have negative splits versus lefties.
Sale is the second-largest favorite on the slate with moneyline odds of -186, and his Statcast data remains solid despite his last outing: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 205 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 36 percent, and a hard hit rate of 28 percent. Sale has at least nine strikeouts in nine of his last 10 games and leads the slate with a 10.699 SO/9 rate over the past year. Baltimore ranks fifth this season with a 24.6 percent strikeout rate, giving Sale a solid K Prediction of 8.1. He should be the chalk on both sites, as usual, especially on FanDuel, where his $11,400 salary comes with a 91 percent Bargain Rating.
The other two ‘studs’ rate highly in the Bales Model, but they also have weather concerns: Luis Severino is in Toronto (where they should close the roof if the weather looks bad enough), while Justin Verlander is in Chicago with a 53 percent chance of precipitation. The Blue Jays are starting to produce on offense, and thus Severino has an opponent implied run total of 4.1, but Severino has impressed with an +11.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. His last two games have been especially impressive:
Closing the roof at the Rogers Centre is a positive for pitchers, and Severino has shown that he can dominate any offense. Given his upside, he’s worth pursuing in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) despite the matchup against Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays. Weather notwithstanding, Verlander is safer than Severino: As good as the White Sox have been against left-handed pitchers, they’ve been equally bad against righties, ranking 29th and posting a .291 wOBA. Verlander has been up-and-down lately, although his Statcast data is solid: Over his last three games, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. Given that he is $500 more expensive than Severino and could have riskier weather, it’s likely he’ll have lower ownership.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Kenta Maeda is likely overpriced at $8,800 on FanDuel, but his $7,400 price tag is appealing on DraftKings, where he has an 89 percent Bargain Rating. He has not been a fun pitcher to own this season . . .
. . . but he has shown solid upside and could again today. He’s facing a Brewers squad that ranks fourth this season with a 24.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and Maeda trails only the three studs with his 9.663 SO/9 rate. He is first in the slate with a high K Prediction of 8.4, which is a solid historical indicator just by itself (per our MLB Trends tool):
He’s risky given his play this season, but that’s also priced into his low DraftKings salary. And if it makes you feel better, his Statcast data suggests he’s due for some positive regression: Over his last two games, he’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 181 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 34 percent, and a hard hit rate of 13 percent. He’s an elite SP2 option in GPPs.
One of the big questions today is whether Royals lefty Eric Skoglund can put up an encore performance to his first MLB start:
It was a masterful outing against a Detroit team that is no slouch against lefties this year, ranking seventh with a .334 wOBA. That said, the 24-year-old southpaw will have it tougher against a Cleveland team that rarely strikes out against lefties, ranking 28th with a 17.6 percent rate. Vegas bettors do not seem to believe in a repeat performance: Skoglund is a +131 moneyline underdog, and the Indians are currently implied for a high 4.9 runs. I always like the strategy of buying low on young, talented players, but this is a tough spot, and his strong first MLB start may keep his ownership from being as low as we’d want it to be. Perhaps the better move is to fade him today in favor of someone like Maeda at the SP2 spot, and then pounce on recency bias in his next outing (assuming he struggles today). Also, this game has a chance of precipitation as well, so monitor that leading up to lineup lock.
Fastballs
Julio Teheran: He has a brutal matchup against a Reds team that owns a .330 wOBA against righties this season and is currently implied for a massive 5.2 runs. It is going to be hot in Cincinnati today at 88 degrees on first pitch, which historically has been a negative indicator for pitchers. Still, he’s one of few pitchers today with a K Prediction above 7.0.
Marcus Stroman: He also has a tough matchup at home against a Yankees offense that crushes pitchers of all handedness. They rank first this season with a .352 team wOBA against righties, and Stroman has allowed a 93 mile per hour exit velocity over his last two games. The Yankees are implied for only 3.9 runs today, so that seems good for Stroman, but that number might be too low for the Yankees.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
That is likely no surprise, as they are implied for a slate-high 5.3 runs against White Sox reliever David Holmberg, who struggled in his first start of the season last week, allowing three earned runs and walking three batters in just 4.0 innings. He likely won’t pitch deep into the game in another spot start, although Chicago does have a rested bullpen, as indicated by the Tigers’ Opponent Bullpen Strength of nine. Still, the Tigers — especially J.D. Martinez — can beat up any lefty. Martinez has a ridiculous 97 MPH exit velocity over his last 13 games.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
They face Indians righty Trevor Bauer, who is coming off an absolute gem of an outing, posting 64.0 FanDuel points thanks to 14 strikeouts across seven innings against the Athletics. That said, he also owns Statcast data that is alarming: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 221 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. The Royals should be quite low-owned today, which makes them intriguing in GPPs. Mike Moustakas is playable even outside of a stack: He owns a .272 ISO against righties and has posted a 228-foot batted ball distance over his last 11 games.
Batters
Aaron Judge has done this over his last seven games:
Over the last 15 days, he’s first in the slate with an absolutely ridiculous average batted ball distance of 272 feet. He also owns a 97 mile per hour exit velocity, a 42 percent fly ball rate, and a 57 percent hard hit rate. Again, the Yankees are not implied for that many runs — just 3.9 against Stroman — but it is hard to fade a hitter as hot as Judge; he owns a .309 ISO against righties over the past year.
Reds lefty Amir Garrett has the highest HR/9 allowed mark in the slate by a mile at 2.438, and the opposing Braves are currently implied for 4.9 runs. Since that’s just the sixth-highest mark in the slate, there’s a chance they could have somewhat low ownership. Cleanup hitter Matt Kemp is just $3,800 on FanDuel, and he owns a high .276 past-year wOBA against lefties. Further, he has solid recent Statcast data: Over his last 14 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 228 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. Three of the top-five batters in the projected Atlanta lineup are lefties themselves, but they still rank 10th in wOBA against southpaws this year. Even if you don’t want to stack lefties against lefties, Kemp is a good solo batter on his own against Garrett.
It’s hard to hit in Miami, but the Diamondbacks also face Vance Worley, who has bad Statcast data of late: Over his last three games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 222 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent. We don’t have a Vegas line on this game yet, but it’s likely to be somewhat low given the Park Factor. That said, a guy like Paul Goldschmidt is always in play, especially against a bad pitcher. Goldy has averaged a 224-foot batted ball distance and a 94 MPH exit velocity over his last 15 games, and he will likely be low-owned given the high totals today plus the presence of Sale. Taking one of the most talented players at low ownership is a solid move in GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
