The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a split slate. The Yankees-Blue Jays game is not included in either one. The early slate, which begins at 2:15 pm ET, is comprised of nine games, while the main slate includes five games and starts at 7:15 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Six pitchers cost more than $9,000 in the all day slate, half of whom are available in the early slate. Matt Shoemaker doesn’t qualify on FanDuel, where he’s replaced by David Price at $9,600. Lance McCullers and Price are the only ones with quality recent Statcast data, and the other five pitchers possess the worst Recent Batted Ball Luck marks in the entire slate:
Jon Lester, Carlos Carrasco, and Johnny Cueto are available in the early slate, leaving the other four as options for the main slate. Three teams are presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the early slate, and they all rank in the top-three in FanDuel Team Value Rating. Pitching is much more abundant in the early slate, and that could potentially reduce ownership for high-priced pitchers in favor of bats.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Carrasco currently leads all pitchers with a -187 moneyline, and his opponent, the Royals, are implied to score the fewest runs all day at 3.6. Carrasco has historically offered more value on the road and at reduced ownership (per our Trends tool):
His Statcast data is alarming, as he’s allowed a batted ball distance differential of +26 feet and a fly ball rate differential of +18 percent. However, the Royals have scored the fewest runs this season, and opposing pitchers priced between $8,000 and $11,000 on FanDuel have averaged a league-best +8.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 76.5 percent Consistency Rating. Among the expensive early slate pitchers, Carrasco offers the best combination of moneyline odds, home/road splits, and opponent implied run total. Pitchers with similar Vegas data and poor Statcast data have generally met salary-based expectations, but they’ve also barely provided value with a +1.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Lester has averaged 8.8 more DraftKings points at Wrigley Field than on the road since the start of 2016. The over/under has yet to be set for the Cardinal-Cubs game, and the wind is presently projected to blow six miles per hour toward left field. Lester has recorded 16 strikeouts in 10.2 innings against the Cardinals this season, an offense that ranks in the bottom-five with a .112 ISO, .285 wOBA, and 5.4 percent HR/FB ratio against left-handed pitchers. Lester is the most expensive option in the early slate on FanDuel by $100 and the cheapest of the three-most expensive pitchers on DraftKings. The price disparity may elevate his ownership on DraftKings even though it comes with a 35 percent Bargain Rating.
The Giants are road underdogs, reducing Cueto’s appeal in cash games on FanDuel as the cheapest of the three studs in the early slate. The over/under has yet to be set for this game as well, and Cueto has historically struggled on the road. Additionally, his -81 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark doesn’t bode well, as he’s averaged a -4.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus when his Recent Batted Ball Luck score has been no better than -50.
McCullers ranks second among all pitchers with a 7.5 K Prediction and -182 moneyline; both marks lead the main slate. He’s limited opposing teams to two earned runs in his last 30 innings pitched, and he recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts in 6.1 innings last time he faced the Rangers. Weather is concerning in Texas today, so be sure to monitor that situation leading up to lock. McCullers may be the chalkiest pitching option in the main slate, and he’s allowed a slate-best 178-foot batted ball distance, 61 percent ground ball rate, and 19 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts. Expensive pitchers with a similar K Prediction and recent ground ball rate have performed well on DraftKings:
The Twins are currently implied to score the second-fewest runs all day, and Shoemaker ranks second with a 6.7 K Prediction in the main slate. He costs $1,100 more than Price on DraftKings, and the Angels have received a concerning 12 percent of moneyline bets in what projects to be a coin-toss game against Ervin Santana. No team favored has received less than 14 percent of moneyline bets in our database, and pitchers have recorded a poor -2.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus when their team has been favored but received just 14 to 22 percent of moneyline bets. Shoemaker and Santana lead all pitchers in Park Factor, and their Statcast data is nearly indistinguishable. Shoemaker gets the edge in K Prediction, where his 6.7 mark is the second-highest on the main slate and two strikeouts better than Santana’s prediction.
Values
Rich Hill currently leads all pitchers in the early slate with a 9.7 K Prediction, which is almost three more than that of the next closest pitcher. He’s averaged a +15.9 FanDuel Plus/Minus in 15 road starts with an 80 percent Consistency Rating since 2015, and he’s one of three pitchers facing a team presently implied to score less than 4.0 runs. Hill also gets the benefit today of umpire D.J. Reyburn, who has aided pitchers with a +2.2 FanDuel Plus/Minus and was behind the plate last season when Hill recorded 57 FanDuel points. Hill has yet to pitch more than 5.0 innings in five starts this season, but he carries significant upside against a Brewers team that ranks second in strikeout percentage against lefties.
Tyler Chatwood has limited his last two opponents to a batted ball distance of 176 feet and a 64 percent ground ball rate. The Padres are one of three teams currently implied to score less than 4.0 runs in the early slate, and they’ve recorded the highest percentage of soft hit balls this season. Away from Coors Field, Chatwood has recorded a +5.70 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 64.7 percent Consistency Rating. He’s a cheap option in the early slate with a solid Park Factor and a comparable K Prediction to those of the expensive pitchers.
The main slate is bereft of worthwhile value pitchers, likely leading the majority of the field to load up McCullers if the weather is fine. None of the pitchers priced below $8,500 on FanDuel are currently projected for ownership greater than four percent, and all of them are facing teams with an implied total of at least 4.3 runs. Price’s salary dropped to $8,500 on DraftKings, and he could be a nice contrarian play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), as the Orioles have recorded the fifth-highest strikeout percentage against lefties this season. Price threw 88 pitches in his season debut, and it’s unclear if he’ll have any limitations.
Fastball
Mike Leake: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of 10 starts this season, but the Cardinals are heavy underdogs with a +156 moneyline and no over/under presently set.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to a Tigers team presently implied to score a slate-best 5.4 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Alex Avila possesses the sixth-best wOBA and slate-best 99 MPH recent exit velocity for projected hitters, and he leads all catchers in the early slate with eight Pro Trends. His wOBA is topped by J.D. Martinez‘s, who leads all hitters at 0.445. Both Martinez and Justin Upton have a batted ball distance differential of at least +25 feet, and Andrew Romine is the only member of the stack with a recent hard hit rate lower than 40 percent and exit velocity less than 94 MPH. The Tigers scored 15 runs last night and currently lead all teams with an 89 DraftKings Team Value Rating, but when they faced righty Miguel Gonzalez last Sunday, they were held hitless through six innings. They’ll likely be a popular team due to their Team Value Rating, but fading them warrants additional consideration since their recent offensive explosion will likely elevate their ownership and Gonzalez dominated them less than a week ago.
The Mets provide the five highest-rated four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model for the main slate, where they offer a slate-best 77 Team Value Rating:
Lucas Duda is the only lefty in the highest-rated stack with negative wOBA and ISO splits against right-handed pitchers, but he hit two homers off a righty last night and has exceeded 10.0 FanDuel points in eight of his last 11 games. Despite the reverse batting splits, he leads all Mets hitters with a wOBA of .370, a batted ball distance differential of +19 feet, and a fly ball rate of 50 percent. Duda also leads all hitters in the main slate with eight Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Pirates righty Tyler Glasnow‘s 1.811 WHIP is the worst mark among all 30 pitchers, and his recent hard hit rate allowed of 47 percent is tied for last. His last start came against the Mets in which he surrendered five earned runs and eight hits in 5.0 innings.
Batters
Tigers righty Jordan Zimmermann has yielded 15 home runs in his last seven starts, and he’ll face the White Sox for the second straight game and third time this season. Todd Frazier homered off Zimmermann in both games, and he leads the White Sox with a recent batted ball distance of 236 feet, a fly ball rate of 53 percent, and a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +58. His salary has dropped to a season-low $3,500 on DraftKings, as he’s averaged a -1.67 Plus/Minus over the last month, but Zimmermann is certainly not a strikeout pitcher and Frazier has been relatively unlucky lately.
Cody Bellinger leads all hitters on the slate with a 0.340 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and Brewers starter Matt Garza has yielded a slate-worst 246-foot batted ball distance during his last two starts, which resulted in 10 earned runs. Despite his negative Statcast data, Bellinger still leads the Dodgers with a recent batted ball distance of 235 feet and a 51 percent fly ball rate. Generating a Dodgers stack is more cost effective on FanDuel, where seven of the top-eight projected hitters have Bargain Ratings of at least 63 percent.
All nine hitters with a DraftKings Recent Batted Ball Luck score of at least 60 are projected to bat in the bottom third of the order (per our Lineups page) and cost no more than $3,200. Derek Norris leads the group with a 45 percent DraftKings monthly Consistency Rating, and he costs $2,600. Mariners rookie Sam Gaviglio has the third-worst HR/9 rate among all pitchers, and Norris leads the group of unlucky hitters with a 243-foot recent batted ball distance.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
