This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Stephen Strasburg: Pitcher, Nationals
Friday’s main slate offers some intriguing pitching options, one of whom is Strasburg, fresh off of a 15-strikeout performance in which he surrendered just three hits. On the road against the Athletics, who are implied for just 3.4 runs, Strasburg boasts a stellar 8.6 K Prediction as a -183 moneyline favorite. Historically, pitchers with similar K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +5.61 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64.8 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
One of the top pitchers in the Bales Model, Strasburg has strong Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 196 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 17 percent. With Kershaw in the slate, Strasburg’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership, which Pro subscribers can review shortly after lock in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
J.D. Martinez: Outfielder, Tigers
Per our Vegas Dashboard, Detroit has a DraftKings Team Value Rating of 82, the second-highest mark on the main slate. Implied for 5.0 runs, the Tigers may be a popular team tonight and are experiencing some positive line movement already:
On the surface, Martinez has impressive recent Statcast data with a batted ball distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, fly ball rate of 48 percent, and hard hit rate of 55 percent — top-4 in each category in today’s slate. However, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals, and Statcast data have a good but not great historical Plus/Minus of +0.64 on DraftKings — and with a $5,000 salary Martinez’s comps would ideally be great. Given that the White Sox-Tigers game currently has the slate’s second-worst Weather Rating, Martinez might warrant some fade consideration.
Brandon Phillips: Second Baseman, Braves
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Braves are currently implied to score five runs against the Reds, who are starting the exploitable Bronson Arroyo with his 3.164 HR/9. Per our Lineups page, Phillips is projected to hit second and will likely be a core player in Atlanta stacks:
Sporting a .334 wOBA against right-handers, Phillips is in an exceptional spot against Arroyo, who in his last two starts has some putrid Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 257 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 60 percent. Although Phillips has been quiet lately, his Recent Batted Ball Luck of 31 suggests he could be due for some positive regression.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
