The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday offers a split slate. The Cubs-Padres and Athletics-Indians games are not included in either one. The early slate, which begins at 12:35 pm ET, is comprised of four matches, while the main slate includes nine games and starts at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer possess the highest K Predictions and moneyline odds among the expensive options in the main slate. Both were available during last Friday’s slate, and Scherzer dominated average ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel (per the MLB Ownership Dashboard):
Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, and Carlos Martinez are also available today, and Arrieta is the only one of the three with a comparable K Prediction and moneyline to the marks of deGrom and Scherzer. That said, the Cubs are only in the All Day slates, which will make deGrom and Scherzer even more chalky in the main slate.
deGrom faces a Brewers team with the lowest implied total today, and he’s recorded solid Statcast data over his last two starts, including an average exit velocity allowed of 88 miles per hour. When deGrom faced the Brewers in Milwaukee earlier this month, he notched seven strikeouts in six innings but was roughed up for four earned runs. At the time, deGrom had worse Statcast data against a lineup with a slate-best 0.382 wOBA. The Brewers’ projected lineup maintains the best wOBA in the main slate, although it has dropped 0.037 points since their last encounter. The current projected lineup is also littered with six hitters who claim a negative recent batted ball distance differential and only one with a recent fly ball rate greater than his groundball rate. deGrom has been splendid at home during his career, compiling a +6.00 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 78 percent Consistency Rating on 35.1 percent ownership (per our Trends tool). Never has deGrom possessed a K Prediction greater than 7.9 at Citi Field (he’s at 8.6 today), and on a slate with Scherzer, he’ll likely fall short of his typical home ownership.
Scherzer faces an anemic Giants offense that ranks last in wOBA, ISO, and hard hit rate this season. In his last start against a similarly poor Padres offense, Scherzer recorded a season-high 13 strikeouts and 43.9 DraftKings points. Scherzer gets the aid of umpire Hal Gibson III, who has historically assisted pitchers with a +1.5 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he currently leads all pitchers with an 8.7 K Prediction and 93 Park Factor. Favored pitchers who have had similar Park Factors and strikeout upside have historically recorded a +3.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 63.8 percent Consistency. Scherzer has been priced above $13,000 35 times since joining the Nationals; in those instances, he’s provided a +0.94 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 61.8 percent Consistency.
Both the Mets and Nationals have received at least 72 percent of moneyline bets so far. The pitchers have similar Statcast data as well, with the exception of Scherzer’s 48 percent fly ball rate, but the Giants don’t pose a threat in that category, as they rank 27th this season with a 33.1 percent fly ball rate. Scherzer costs $1,300 more than deGrom on DraftKings, which could tip the ownership scales in deGrom’s favor, but the $300 difference between them on FanDuel will likely elevate Scherzer’s average ownership close to last Friday’s 40.77 percent.
Martinez has the best recent advanced stats among pitchers priced above $9,000 on either site, and his negative Recent Batted Ball Luck mark is the closest to neutral among the foursome. His recent 10-game stretch has had a few blips, but he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games while facing a salary decrease due to a visit to Coors Field recently:
He receives the most benevolent umpire on the slate, and he costs significantly less than Scherzer and deGrom. Martinez’s K Prediction of 7.7 presently ranks third in the main slate, but the Dodgers’ implied run total of 3.8 runs reduces Martinez’s appeal as a safe option in cash games. Pitchers who’ve had a similar K Prediction, recent groundball rate, and salary have typically provided a +2.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Values
Dan Straily leads all pitchers in the early slate in K Prediction, and he’s the only one facing a team with an implied run total less than 4.0. He’s also the most expensive pitcher in the short slate, but he’ll likely be highly-owned given his Vegas data. That said, Aaron Nola has superior Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a 176-foot batted ball distance, he’s posted a -11 percent hard hit rate differential, and he’s seen a +1.7 MPH velocity increase. Rostering pitchers from the same game is one way to stop your chance at achieving two wins, but both Straily and Nola lead the early slate pitchers in K Prediction and face teams that possess the lowest implied run totals. They’re also the only ones with an umpire who’s benefited pitchers with a positive FanDuel Plus/Minus. Nola is cheaper between the two and is the underdog, but on such a small slate, rostering both is one way to remain contrarian while loading up on chalk bats.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: Archer has recorded at least 11 strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and when he’s had a similar K Prediction since 2016, he’s recorded a +3.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 71.4 percent Consistency Rating. Archer has a -81 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark today; he has averaged a mediocre +0.04 FanDuel Plus/Minus historically in similar situations.
James Paxton: He’s making his first start since coming off the DL, and it’s unclear if he’ll have a pitch count. He was limited to 55 pitches in his rehab start. The Mariners presently have the second-best moneyline odds at -175, but they play late enough that Paxton’s limitation may not be known until after lock.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate in the Bales Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, a team with a mediocre implied run total of 4.6 and a 59 Team Value Rating (per the Vegas Dashboard):
The Diamondbacks away from Chase Field this season have ranked in the bottom-three in road wOBA, ISO, and slugging percentage, and all of their right-handed hitters have a Park Factor of two today. Collectively, they’ve recorded a -1.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus on the road with a league-worst 29.1 percent Consistency Rating. That said, the Diamondbacks have played nine of their last 12 games on the road, and yet four of the five hitters in the stack possess positive Statcast differentials. Pirates righty Chad Kuhl‘s recent 0.414 wOBA is the highest mark in the early slate, and he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in seven straight outings. Over his last three starts, he has allowed a +20 batted ball distance differential, providing a sliver of hope when considering stacking the Diamondbacks, a team whose projected 1-3-4-6 hitters have a Bargain Rating less than 14 percent.
Four of the five top-rated FanDuel four-man stacks in the main slate using the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Yankees and Rays, two teams covered by Joe Holka in today’s stacking article. The Red Sox account for the other team in the top-five, and their stack is among the most expensive:
The Red Sox are presently implied to score a slate-best 5.4 runs, yet they rank second in Team Value Rating on both platforms. Mookie Betts has homered in two straight games, but his recent fly ball rate of 22 percent and -80 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark paint a different picture. White Sox righty Mike Pelfrey has had poor results this year, but he’s sustained his year-long 26 percent fly ball rate while limiting hitters to a recent batted ball distance of 183 feet. That said, he still ranks in the bottom-three in WHIP (1.601) and SO/9 (4.184), and the winds at Guaranteed Rate Field are projected to blow out toward left field. If you’re going to forgo paying up for pitching in the main slate, pivoting to a Red Sox stack is one alternative in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Batters
Blue Jays righty Mike Bolsinger has allowed 12 stolen bases in his last 16 starts dating back to 2015. Billy Hamilton leads all hitters with a 0.582 SB/G rate and 72 percent FanDuel and DraftKings Consistency Ratings over the past month. He’s reached base in 28 straight games dating back to April 25th, and his average FanDuel GPP ownership has exceeded double digits on just two occasions over that span. While his reliability translates well in cash games, Bolsinger’s slate-worst 1.907 WHIP could mean multiple appearances on base for Hamilton, who offers a 97 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating in the early slate.
The White Sox rank first in the league this season with a 0.362 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, but since wOBA in our Player Models is a 12-month running average, Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz‘s slate-best 0.268 opponent wOBA may be slightly misleading. The White Sox rank second among all teams with a +1.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus against lefties this season, led by Avisail Garcia‘s +5.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Jose Abreu ranks second with seven Pro Trends among first basemen, and he’s one of four hitters in the projected lineup with positive Statcast data across the board. He and Todd Frazier lead the White Sox in ISO against left-handed pitchers, and since the White Sox are presently implied to score 4.3 runs, they’ll likely get overlooked.
The Mariners currently qualify for beneficial reverse line movement:
Their implied run total has increased 0.4 runs since the line opened, yet they’ve received 34 percent of moneyline bets as -175 favorites. Nelson Cruz‘s status remains unclear, as he left last night’s game with a tight calf, and his potential absence will alter the dynamics of the lineup. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager have both recorded a recent fly ball rate of 50 percent and hard hit rate of 43 percent, and Cano handily leads all second basemen today with eight FanDuel Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
