The course that Jack Nicklaus built, Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, hosts this week’s Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. An absolutely loaded field (highlighted by seven of the World’s top-10 golfers) makes its way to Jack’s place for the Memorial. The tournament’s winner for the past two years (decided last year in a playoff) has finished 15 under par, and nobody over par has made the cut in the past three years.
Finishing well here requires a strong tee-to-green game and the ability to make birdies while avoiding bogeys. For bogey avoidance, we will concentrate on Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Scrambling (SC). For birdie potential, we’ll consider Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg).
The Heavy Vegas Favorite
The World’s No. 1 golfer and current FedExCup leader, Dustin Johnson is the only player in the field with double-digit Vegas odds to win (14.3 percent). Per our Trends tool, golfers with similar salaries and odds to win have historically generated a +5.69 Plus/Minus with a 61.1 percent Consistency Rating, averaging 84.90 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) at an ownership rate of nearly 30 percent. Importantly, 11 of the 36 golfers scored more than 100 PPT.
Johnson’s 69.3 percent Long-term (LT) GIR rate is eighth, his 60.8 percent LT SC is 14th, and his 16.8 LT Adj Bird Avg is first overall in the field.
After winning or finishing inside the top three for five straight tournaments, Johnson has finished 12th and 13th in his most recent events, and he finished 13th and third at the Memorial over the past two years. Using multiple models is a sharp move: DJ is currently the top golfer in all eight of our Pro Player Models.
Rahm GOAT
Jon Rahm laughed in the face of the debutante narrative last week at Colonial, firing an impressive 66 on Sunday to finish T2 and just one shot off the lead. He could laugh again in his Memorial debut this week.
Rahm’s 69.6 LT GIR percentage is seventh, his 60.4 LT SC percentage is 20th, and 16.5 LT Adj Bird Avg is third overall. Rahm has finished fifth or better in five of his last nine tournaments.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Jason Day: Day hasn’t played particularly well at Muirfield Village, finishing outside the top 25 in each of his seven appearances here since 2009 with two missed cuts. That said, he was rounding into form his last time out at the Byron Nelson. Day’s 62.1 LT SC percentage ranks fourth, and he is tied for sixth overall with his 15.1 LT Adj Bird Avg.
Adam Scott: Scott hasn’t played here since 2014, when he finished fourth. Scott’s 70.7 LT GIR percentage is fourth, and his 15.0 LT Adj Bird Avg is eighth. Scott has two top-10 finishes in his last three tournaments, and he is tied for seventh with his 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score.
Jason Dufner: Per our DFS Ownership Dashboard, Dufner was nice and chalky with his 21.18 percent average ownership last week when he missed the cut. This is a good week to capitalize on some recency bias, as Dufner made nine straight cuts prior to last week. He is tied for 15th and 16th with his 68.1 percent LT GIR mark and 14.3 LT Adj Bird Avg.
Yuta Ikeda: A frequent winner on the Japan Golf Tour, Ikeda has now made three straight cuts on the PGA Tour. Ikeda’s 16.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks sixth in this week’s field, and his 66.o Recent GIR percentage is 15th.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello: After looking shaky in the month of April, RCB now has two straight top-25 finishes, including his fourth-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship in his last event. Cabrera-Bello ranks third in the field with his robust 72.2 LT GIR percentage, and his 14.6 LT Adj Bird Avg is 11th overall.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Matt Kuchar is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Kuchar has finished outside the top 15 just once in seven trips here since 2009, with a win and three additional top-five finishes — including a fourth-place finish last year — during that stretch. Unsurprisingly, Kuchar’s 67.2 Course Adj Rd Score leads the field this week. Kuchar’s LT Adj Bird Avg (13.7), LT GIR percentage (67.3), and LT SC percentage (60.4) all rank inside the top 25 of this field.
Humpnostication
With apologies in advance for likely putting the curse of Hump on him, Byeong-Hun An is my guy at the Memorial this week. An finished 11th at this event last year and is on a serious roll right now. Bennie hasn’t missed a cut since the early 1980s (that’s hyperbole), and he’s reeled off two top-10 finishes in his last three events: He is tied for 19th in the field with his 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score.
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Good luck this week!
