The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series in which we review the ownership dynamics of a previous slate.
The main slate on Monday provided an interesting situation regarding starting pitchers. One pitcher stood out as the clear-cut top option on the slate – the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman – and as a result he was all but assured to be owned at a massive rate. Sure enough, he led the slate in ownership across all buy-in levels on DraftKings (per the Ownership Dashboard):
The ridiculous ownership levels make sense; he was a large -210 favorite and had the lowest opponent implied team total on the slate at 3.9. Further, every other pitcher on the slate had question marks in at least one area, which made it very appealing to lock in the safety of Stroman in all formats.
However, Stroman was not without his own warts. He had a minuscule K Prediction of only 4.8; combine that with his relatively-expensive salary, and he’s not in desirable historical company (per the Trends tool):
Perhaps even more importantly than the Plus/Minus number above, those pitchers had a historical Upside rating of only three percent. Three percent! If Stroman was going to be in the winning GPP lineup, it seemed more likely that he would do it because of the poor play of other options, not necessarily because he put up a dominant effort of his own.
All of this begs the question: Is it worth it to roster a pitcher like Stroman in GPPs at almost assuredly high ownership? And when fading a pitcher like Stroman, what are some potential trends we can use to identify possible pivots?
Edinson Volquez stood out as one potential option. He had a slightly higher K Prediction at 5.1, only a slightly higher opponent implied team total at 4.0 runs, and he was the second-biggest favorite of the evening at -159 (per the Vegas Dashboard). His lower salary of $6,500 made the relatively-low K Prediction much more tolerable, and his Park Factor of 87 gave him a solid list of cohorts when paired with comparable moneyline odds:
His ownership level was also much more reasonable than what we saw from Stroman, and he had one of the higher Volatility Ratings of the day amongst pitchers:
Ricky Nolasco and Julio Teheran were set to face each other in Anaheim, and both pitchers had remarkably similar data points: Nolasco, who graded out as the top pitcher on the slate per the Bales Model, had a K Prediction of 5.8; Teheran had a K Prediction of 5.0; and both got to benefit from a friendly Park Factor of 83. Historical pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories haven’t boasted a remarkable Plus/Minus (+0.54 on DraftKings), but they at least had an Upside Rating approaching 10 percent. Here are their ownership levels from last night:
Finally, it’s not often that you see the lowest-priced pitcher of the day with the highest K Prediction, but that was the case with Lisalverto Bonilla. With a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings, he was priced at only $4,800 and had a K Prediction of 6.2; pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically returned value on DraftKings:
He was also owned at a minuscule level, despite pitchers in the above trend posting an impressive historical Upside Rating of 19 percent:
Results
- Stroman: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 HBP, 2 ERs, 5 K, 1 W – 19.90 fantasy points
- Volquez: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 W – 20.50 fantasy points
- Teheran: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 K, 1 W – 17.45 fantasy points
- Nolasco: 2.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 2 K – 1.20 fantasy points
- Bonilla: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 6 ER, 0 K – -11.55 fantasy points
Conclusions
Ultimately, Stroman did exactly what was expected of him – 6.0 innings pitched, five strikeouts, one win, and 19.9 fantasy points – but was outscored by Volquez and almost matched by Teheran at lower salaries. In the future, fading a low-ceiling pitcher with projected high ownership for pitchers with more volatile outcomes looks to be a viable strategy in a small slate.
