This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Logan Morrison: First Baseman, Rays
The Rays face Rangers righty Nick Martinez, who ranks in the bottom four on the slate in WHIP (1.484), HR/9 (1.875), and SO/9 (4.57). Rays hitters possess a slate-best 99 Opponent Bullpen Rating, a significant mark for a team fourth in ISO against right-handed pitchers and facing a bullpen with a .790 OPS allowed, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. The Rays also presently rank second in Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Morrison currently leads all hitters with 12 DraftKings and nine FanDuel Pro Trends. He has solid Statcast data with recent batted ball distance and hard hit rate differentials of +22 feet and +15 percentage points. Hitters similar in Pro Trends and Opponent Bullpen Ratings have historically averaged a +2.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 52.3 percent Consistency Rating.
Robbie Ray: Pitcher, Diamondbacks
Ray currently leads all pitchers with an 8.2 K Prediction and 11.783 SO/9. He also ranks fifth in our database in FanDuel Plus/Minus on the road (minimum 15 road starts):
Although the Pirates homered off Ray twice earlier this season, that game was at Chase Field. The Pirates rank in the bottom 10 in hard hit and fly ball rates against lefties this season. Their two hitters with recent fly ball rates higher than ground ball rates aren’t in the projected lineup, and the Pirates are implied to score 3.8 runs, the third-lowest mark on the slate. Red Sox lefty Chris Sale will likely have high ownership (which Pro subscribers can review after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard), but it’s a Coors slate and he’s expensive. In comparison, Ray is at least $3,000 cheaper, and pitchers with similar K Predictions and Park Factors have typically provided a +5.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus. In comparable situations, Ray himself has crushed with 69, 54, and 51 FanDuel points.
Trevor Story: Shortstop, Rockies
Story leads all shortstops with a 0.370 ISO, and he ranks second with a 63 percent FanDuel Consistency Rating over the past month. His salary remains affordable on FanDuel ($3,500) for a Coors Field game, and he’s been most valuable at home when priced below $4,000:
Since returning from the disabled list, Story has recorded a recent batted ball distance of 289 feet and a slate-high 80 percent fly ball rate. Mariners left-handed pitcher Ariel Miranda ranks second on the slate with a year-long 48 percent fly ball rate, which has led to a deplorable 1.805 HR/9 rate. Story could be one of the more popular hitters on the slate, as the Rockies are presently implied to score a slate-best 6.0 runs, but he’s currently expected to bat seventh, so he’ll likely have lower ownership than many of his teammates.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
