The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series in which we review the ownership dynamics of a previous slate.
On Saturday, May 27, the main slate consisted of five games and was headlined by the Cardinals traveling to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. The Cardinals and Rockies were each implied to score a slate-high 5.3 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard), while no other offenses on the slate were implied to score over 4.8 runs. There was just one problem: weather.
Per our Lineups page, the Cardinals-Rockies matchup had a 53 percent chance of rain; no other matchup had a chance of rain higher than two percent. With ample high- and low-priced pitching options available, how did the public approach roster construction on a small slate with a high chance of rain at Coors Field? Let’s find out.
May 27th Ownership Review
Hitters
The high chance of rain didn’t do much to dissuade the public from loading up on hitters from the Cardinals-Rockies matchup. The below data is courtesy of our DFS Ownership Dashboard (Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes shortly after lock):
The Cardinals-Rockies matchup featured five of the top-10 hitters in average ownership Saturday. Intriguingly, high-stakes players appeared to be particularly enamored by this matchup. The Cardinals-Rockies matchup accounted for four of the top-six hitters in GPP Grade and five of the top-six hitters in Volatility Rating.
This wasn’t the only matchup with high ownership at high stakes, however. The Astros accounted for three of the top-six highest-owned hitters in the $61k Gold Glove. This wasn’t particularly surprising: Per our Player Models, all three of those Astros had projected ownership that was among the top-five highest marks in Saturday’s slate.
As touched on in this MLB Weather Factors piece, hitters have historically produced more value with a chance of rain between 20 and 80 percent. Rostering any pitcher with even a decent chance of rain is risky due to the likelihood that they’ll be pulled with any type of delay. Hitters are much more likely to get their usual dosage of at-bats in games with sub-optimal weather conditions. On a small slate with weather concerns, the public chose to still target the risky Cardinals-Rockies matchup while filling out the roster with cheaper bats from the Astros, who had the slate’s highest-implied total aside from Coors Field.
Pitchers
The ownership breakdown of Saturday’s pitchers was a bit more straightforward:
Dallas Keuchel was the absolute chalk. The Astros ace had a great matchup at home against an Orioles lineup implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs. Keuchel has now had a DraftKings salary of at least $11,000 in three consecutive starts, but the public was willing to pay up for the safest pitching option in Saturday’s slate.
Gerrit Cole, John Lackey, Brandon McCarthy, and Ty Blach all posted average ownership levels between 20 and 33 percent Saturday. Translation: the public targeted strikeout upside and home favorites to fill out their pitching options. Not every pitcher is created equal, but targeting home favorites or pitchers with a high K Prediction has historically been the way to go. Per our Trends tool, pitchers have posted a +1.50 Plus/Minus with a 57 percent Consistency Rating when favored at home since 2014. As discussed in this K Prediction analysis piece, pitchers have produced solid value with a K Prediction greater than six.
Takeaways
In the end, the Cardinals-Rockies matchup totaled just three runs, while Adam Wainwright, Keuchel, and McCarthy each scored at least 27 DraftKings points. Given the ample amount of pitching options and the high-implied Cardinals-Rockies matchup, the public focused on hitters at Coors Field along with pitchers with a solid matchup or strikeout upside. Here are some specifics:
- The Cardinals-Rockies matchup accounted for the majority of the slate’s top GPP Grades and Volatility Ratings.
- The public filled out their rosters with slightly cheaper bats from the Astros, thanks in part to their high-implied total of 4.8 runs.
- Keuchel was the pitching chalk. Matchups as a home favorite, as well as strikeout upside, appeared to drive the rest of the slate’s pitching ownership.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of small slates with multiple solid pitching options and poor weather at Coors Field.
