The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a split slate: There are nine games in the 2:10 pm ET early slate, and five games in the 7:07 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Today features a relatively weak group of pitchers. There are only five pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel, and only Carlos Carrasco cracks the $10,000 barrier:
After a somewhat shaky start to the season, Kyle Hendricks has been much better of late; he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. He has arguably the best matchup of the day against a projected Padres lineup that has a minuscule .230 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. With an opponent implied team total of only 3.2 runs and moneyline odds of -190, Hendricks is comparable to a cohort of pitchers who have done well on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
The Vegas data for Hendricks probably makes him the safest option for cash games, but its not as if he’s without a ceiling for guaranteed prize pools. His K Prediction of 7.3 is the second-highest mark on the slate, and at Petco Park he sports a high Park Factor of 80. His Statcast data over his last two starts is also strong with a 179-foot average batted ball distance, 89 mph exit velocity, and 51 percent ground ball rate.
There are quite a few heavy favorites on the slate, but Carrasco leads the way with -237 moneyline odds in a matchup against the A’s. Similarly favored pitchers have historically provided a +2.71 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where Carrasco has a strong Bargain Rating of 78 percent. Carrasco’s K Prediction of 6.7 is nothing special, but the Athletics have struck out in 23.5 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. However, there are two potential reasons for concern with Carrasco. The first is his recent Statcast data, as he’s posted a distance differential of +15 feet and hard hit differential of +12 percentage points over his last two starts. The second is the weather in Cleveland, where there’s currently a 54 percent chance of precipitation. If that number holds, its going to be tough to trust Carrasco in cash games.
On the main slate the only available stud is Marcus Stroman, and there is quite a bit to like about him. He currently leads the slate as a massive -193 favorite, and given how weak the rest of the pitching options are that alone should make him extremely popular. He also has arguably the best recent Statcast data of all pitchers on the slate, with an average batted ball distance of 182 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, ground ball rate of 71 percent, and hard hit rate of 28 percent over his last two starts. The big concern with Stroman, however, is his strikeout data: He has averaged only 7.99 strikeouts per nine innings over the last 12 months and is facing a projected Reds lineup that has been difficult to strikeout. The result is a weak K Prediction of 5.0, and it’s tough to justify paying up in GPPs for a pitcher with limited strikeout upside.
Value
Rich Hill leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.4, but his low pitch count has made it very difficult for him to hit value early in the season. He’s yet to throw more than 82 pitches in a game, but there are a few reasons for optimism here. He was rumored to be on a pitch count of 90-100 in his last two outings, but his inability to pitch well in those games didn’t allow him to get there. If he pitches better in this one, he might be allowed to go a little longer. His pedestrian results have also resulted in a 12-month salary change of -$2,900, and pitchers with comparable price decreases and K Predictions have historically returned value on DraftKings:
It’s impossible to trust Hill in cash games due to his volatility, but he’s intriguing for GPPs.
Robert Gsellman has been downright awful to start the season, and that’s putting it lightly:
His Statcast data, however, paints a different picture: His recent batted ball distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 29 percent are all above-average marks on the slate, and he has a Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of 67 on DraftKings. His moneyline odds of -135 make him one of the largest non-stud favorites, and the opposing Brewers have the third-highest K rate against righties this year at 24.0 percent. This game currently has a 35 percent chance for precipitation, which could reduce his ownership for GPPs.
Fastballs
David Price: He’s making his first start of the year as a -181 moneyline favorite, but he’s facing the White Sox, who have hit left-handed pitchers well this season. Their wOBA split of .365 is the second-best mark in the league, and Price also looks like he’ll be on some sort of a pitch count:
Price will pitch for Red Sox Monday. Expected to be on a bit tighter pitch count than normal. Farrell believes rehab struggles due to rust.
— Jason Mastrodonato (@JMastrodonato) May 25, 2017
Brad Peacock: He went only 4.1 innings in his first start of the season, but he managed to strike out eight batters. His Statcast data over the last 15 days is also impressive with a 157-foot batted ball distance, 85 mph exit velocity, 73 percent ground ball rate, and 26 percent hard hit rate. Now that he’s got a start under his belt, its possible he could pitch deeper into the game.
Edinson Volquez: He’s cheap at only $6,500 on DraftKings and is currently a -143 favorite against the Phillies. He also has a distance differential of -17 feet, and pitchers with comparable differentials, moneyline odds, and salaries have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.40 on DraftKings.
Pro subscribers can review ownership for all players across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are at Coors Field, but their implied team total of 5.0 runs is tied for only the fourth-highest mark of the early slate (per our Vegas Dashboard). One factor in their favor is their 15-day Statcast data, as all of the stacked batters have positive distance differentials:
Coors Field is good for all hitters, but batters with positive batted ball differentials have fared particularly well with a historical Plus/Minus of +1.46 on DraftKings. Opposing pitcher Tyler Chatwood has done well over his last two starts, but both of those outings were on the road; the last time he pitched at home he allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings. The forecast for this game calls for a 31 percent chance of precipitation, which could reduce ownership in GPPs.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Texas Rangers, but since J.J. Calle covered them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks lets look at the Toronto Blue Jays instead:
The Blue Jays got off to a relatively slow start to the season but have been a top-10 offense in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. They currently have the highest implied team total on the main slate at 5.3 runs and are facing a pitcher in Lisalverto Bonilla who has allowed an average of just under two home runs per nine innings this season.
Batters
Since returning from the disabled list five games ago, not many batters have hit the ball better than Trevor Story. He has an average batted ball distance of 281 feet over that time, and batters at Coors with that kind of recent distance have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.30 on FanDuel, where he has an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
On Sunday, Bryan Mears pointed out a few guys with positive Recent Batted Ball Luck Scores: Khris Davis, who hit a home run, and Kyle Seager, who went 2 for 5 with a double and a run scored. Another guy to add to that list is Jorge Soler, who has been horrible recently . . .
. . . but who actually has positive distance, velocity, and hard hit differentials over his last eight games. Today he faces Tigers lefty Daniel Norris, and Soler has crushed lefties to the tune of a .406 wOBA and .291 ISO over the last year.
Michael Conforto has cooled down recently in terms of fantasy production, but he still has some of the best recent Statcast data around:
Batters with comparable numbers have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.25 on DraftKings, and opposing pitcher Matt Garza has allowed an average batted ball distance of 224 feet over his last two starts. On a slate with Coors Field as well as the Red Sox, Indians, and Astros, Conforto could potentially be overlooked.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
