This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
The highest-priced pitcher across both sites, Scherzer is in a nice spot today, as the opposing Padres are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard) and the Nationals have slate-high moneyline odds of -240. Scherzer also sports a relatively rare K Prediction of 9.8, which historically has provided tremendous value on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
One issue with Scherzer is his recent form. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 218 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 33 percent. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a -1.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus. With Jacob deGrom and others in the slate, Scherzer’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership, but he carries upside in guaranteed prize pools given his strikeout projection and Vegas data. Pro subscribers can review ownership in our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.
Randal Grichuk: Outfielder, Cardinals
Finding cheap hitters is important if you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher, but often it’s tough to find value at Coors Field. The Cardinals currently lead the slate with 5.6 implied runs:
They will likely be popular tonight, but one player who could help to differentiate Cardinals stacks is Grichuk, who rates surprisingly well in our Player Models with an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Projected to hit seventh (per our Lineups page), Grichuk over the last 15 days has a batted ball distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard hit rate of 52 percent. Historically, FanDuel batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.21. When Coors Field is added to the trend, the Plus/Minus jumps to +4.36.
Aaron Judge: Outfielder, Yankees
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Yankees are currently implied to score 5.2 runs against the Athletics and could be a strong pivot off of Coors Field. Judge is projected to hit fifth and will likely be a core player in Yankees stacks:
Although he hasn’t produced much, Judge has strong recent Statcast data with a batted ball distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, hard hit rate of 46 percent, and fly ball rate of 40 percent. A’s righty Kendall Graveman has struggled in his last four starts, allowing a 5.48 ERA and striking out only 16 batters in 23 innings.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
