The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today priced above $9,000 on FanDuel, headlined by Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw:
Despite his incredibly high price tags, Kershaw has still managed to exceed value this season, averaging an impressive +6.13 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 78 percent Consistency Rating through nine starts. Two of those have been at Coors Field — one of them was two games ago — which makes his recent Statcast data even more incredible: During that span, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 179 feet, an exit velocity of 82 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent.
Today he faces a St. Louis Cardinals team currently implied for just 2.8 runs. He’s a massive moneyline favorite at -235, and while pitchers don’t often get to that level good things happen when they do (per the MLB Trends tool):
Of course, the issue with Kershaw (as usual) is that he’s very expensive: At $13,400 and $12,600 on DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s $2,300 more expensive than any other pitcher on both sites. In a slate that includes a hot Diamondbacks team implied for 6.1 runs at Chase Field against Dylan Covey, people will have to decide between Kershaw and Arizona, as they had to do with Greinke and Arizona last night. Greinke responded with 42.5 DraftKings points, and Kershaw will likely have to go 30-plus tonight to make rostering him at a high price tag worth it. In the 57 instances in which Kershaw has been priced at $13,000 or higher, he’s averaged over 30 DraftKings points with a very high Consistency mark:
In terms of Vegas data, only one pitcher can come even within a galaxy of Kershaw today: Lance McCullers. He has been very solid to begin the year, averaging a +7.64 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 78 percent Consistency Rating over his first nine starts. Today he faces a Tigers team that owns a mediocre .321 team wOBA this season and is currently implied for 3.5 runs; for reference, only the Cardinals and Tigers are implied for fewer than 3.8 runs. McCullers is also a -207 favorite, which puts him close to Kershaw. Similar moneyline pitchers, independent of any other filters, have historically averaged 38.62 FanDuel points and a +6.24 Plus/Minus with a 65.2 percent Consistency Rating. They’ve been owned in 16.8 percent of contests, which is high, but I’m guessing that most of those pitchers either 1) were Kershaw or 2) weren’t in a slate with Kershaw.
One last feather in McCullers’ cap: He actually owns the slate’s highest K Prediction at 7.5, although that could change once lineups are confirmed this afternoon.
See J.J. Calle’s Three Key MLB Players for more on McCullers.
Values
German Marquez has had a bit of an up-and-down season, but his highs — against the Cubs at Coors and Diamondbacks at Chase, no less — have been amazingly high:
His Statcast data over his last two games is impressive as well: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 199 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 31 percent, and a hard hit rate of 22 percent. Unfortunately, he’s now priced way up on FanDuel at $8,500 after being between $5,000 and $5,600 in each of his first seven starts. Thankfully, he’s seen no such price increase on DraftKings: He remains quite affordable at $6,600 and has a huge 96 percent Bargain Rating. He faces a Phillies team currently implied for 4.0 runs, and he could be a popular punt pair with Kershaw.
Matt Shoemaker and Danny Duffy are in similar spots today: They both have poor Vegas data — they’re facing the Rays and Yankees, who are currently implied for 4.4 and 4.6 runs — but they have top-three K Predictions at 7.4 and 7.3. They have somewhat similar Statcast data, although Shoemaker’s recent exit velocity is quite concerning:
He has a -80 Recent Batted Ball Luck score, which is defined as thus:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Despite the poor Statcast data, he’s scored 47.0 and 49.0 FanDuel points in his last two games. Similarly, Duffy’s coming off an absolute gem against these very Yankees in which he allowed no runs and three hits while striking out 10 batters across seven innings.
Again, they’re very similar players; they’re even both dogs and have gotten nearly identical moneyline percentages so far (41-42 percent). That said, Shoemaker is in a pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay and he has Hunter Wendelstedt behind home plate, who has historically added 2.3 FanDuel points to pitcher performance. Duffy dominated the Yankees last time out, but now he’s at a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and with a hitter-friendly ump in Marvin Hudson. Choosing between these two could come down to projected ownership, and Duffy is the bigger name and coming off the bigger game.
Fastballs
Jon Lester: This game projects to have poor weather, which also means that Lester — going against a Giants team that ranks dead last this season with a .282 team wOBA — could be low-owned. He currently owns the third-highest K Prediction in the slate at 7.3.
Carlos Carrasco: He has solid Vegas data and a nice SO/9 rate and is in a game unlikely to be affected by weather. Those marks are all valuable, and he should be underowned given Kershaw’s inclusion in the slate. He’s averaged a +5.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an impressive 75 percent Consistency Rating this season.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As mentioned above, the Diamondbacks are implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs against Covey, who has allowed two home runs in each of his last four starts. Since they’re such obvious chalk and Matt LaMarca covered them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, let’s pivot to a different team:
The highest-rated five-man non-Arizona stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Houston Astros. They are currently implied for 5.2 runs — the third-highest mark today — and they face Jordan Zimmermann, who has been just as bad as Covey this season. He’s allowed 10 home runs over his last five starts and sits third in the slate with a 1.981 HR/9 mark. His 1.703 WHIP is also terrible, as is his recent Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 219 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. Carlos Beltran is an intriguing guy today: He’s on the wrong side of his splits, but he’s also crushed the ball of late, as evidenced by his 246-foot batted ball distance and 94 mile per hour exit velocity over his last 10 games.
The Diamondbacks own the highest Team Value Rating (TVR) on FanDuel at 89, but the Atlanta Braves sit right behind them at 85:
Atlanta has had brutal weather lately, so definitely make sure to monitor the news and field conditions leading up to lock. If they’re able to go, the Braves some stacks with high upside and low cost. Matt Adams, just acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals, is projected to hit fifth (per the MLB Lineups page). He hit his first Braves homer last night and has stellar Statcast data with a 95 mph exit velocity over his last six games. He’s just $2,200 on FanDuel.
Batters
Cody Bellinger is projected to bat third for a Dodgers team currently implied for 4.4 runs, and he owns a massive .397 ISO and .683 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. Further, he’s been smashing the ball of late: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. He faces Cardinals righty Lance Lynn, who has allowed two home runs in each of his last two starts as well as a batted batted ball distance of 225 feet. Since Bellinger doesn’t play for the Diamondbacks, he could be somewhat low-owned.
The Rangers haven’t been particularly great on offense lately, but they do face Rick Porcello, who has the worst Statcast data of all 30 pitchers today:
Vegas bettors are either not concerned with Porcello’s poor marks or are ignoring them, as the Rangers are currently implied for a low 3.8 runs. They should be incredibly low-owned and are also fairly cheap. Mike Napoli is projected to hit sixth and owns a nice .235 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s averaged a 93 mph exit velocity over his last 11 games.
Lefties in Baltimore today have a high Park Factor of 78. The Twins were the contrarian team that went off last night, winning GPPs over the Diamondbacks and scoring 14 runs. They’re in the same park tonight and are currently projected for 4.3 runs, which means that you can get a hot offense at likely low ownership. Lefty Max Kepler is projected to be their cleanup hitter again tonight, and he’s gone for 34-plus FanDuel points in two of his last three games. His Statcast data remains solid: Over his last 10, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 243 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 47 percent. Will the Twins win more GPPs tonight?
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
