This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Arizona Diamondbacks
With the Lineup Builder it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top five-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who lead the slate with a massive implied team total of 6.2 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
An implied team total that large is rarely seen outside of Colorado. Even at Chase Field, which has historically been the second-friendliest park for batters, it’s the highest implied total in our database and a number that has been recorded previously only eight times. White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey has surrendered an average of 2.88 home runs per nine innings and an average batted ball distance of 222 feet over the last 12 months, and batters with an implied team total of at least 5.7 runs facing a comparable pitcher at Chase have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.26 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool). The Arizona batters will almost assuredly have astronomical ownership, which Pro subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
New York Mets
With the Diamondbacks likely to have high ownership, finding contrarian stacks for guaranteed prize pools should be relatively easy. One candidate is a stack of the projected 1-2-3-8 Mets batters, who have the most Pro Trends on DraftKings outside of Arizona:
The Mets are implied for a not insignificant 4.7 runs and are buoyed by the red hot Michael Conforto, who leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends. Over his last 12 games Conforto has destroyed the baseball, averaging a 272-foot batted ball distance, 99 mph exit velocity, and 64 percent hard hit rate. Batters with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically provided a Plus/Minus of +5.06 on DraftKings. Among the other batters, Rene Rivera has a DraftKings Bargain Rating of 91 percent (the highest mark for any projected starting catcher), and Jay Bruce has an ISO of .302 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Another potential Diamondbacks pivot could be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have the top four-man ISO stack:
The Dodgers have been strong offensively this year, averaging over five runs per game. They have been especially potent against right-handed pitchers: Their wOBA of .349 is the third-highest mark in the league against righties. Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn has allowed four runs and two home runs in each of his last two starts, and his Statcast data over the same time period is equally concerning. His 15-day batted ball distance of 225 feet is 14 feet higher than his 12-month average.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
