The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a 10-game main slate at 1:10 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today on FanDuel priced above $9,000:
Overall, Vegas data for all pitchers doesn’t look great: No team is currently implied for under 3.7 runs. Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer lead the slate with opponent implied run totals of 3.7 and 3.8 against the Braves and Yankees, respectively. As a result, they will likely be two of the more chalky studs today.
That said, there are some key differences between the two despite their equal price tag and similar Vegas data. Archer is a smaller favorite at -132 (versus -168 for Strasburg), and he faces a Yankees team that is now tied for first in the league with a .350 team wOBA. They are also strikeout prone — they rank eighth with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate — although Archer’s 7.6 K Prediction is right below Strasburg’s mark of 7.8. It seems that Archer is a better play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) due to his boom-or-bust matchup and Strasburg is perhaps the safer option in cash games.
However, Archer is in a better park at home — he has a Park Factor of 83 — and he’s actually posted superior Statcast data of late. Here’s how they match up in that regard:
- Archer: 190-foot batted ball distance, 88 mile per hour exit velocity, 51 percent groundball rate, 25 percent hard hit rate
- Strasburg: 218-foot batted ball distance, 92 mile per hour exit velocity, 35 percent groundball rate, 38 percent hard hit rate
Strasburg is still perhaps the ‘safer’ pitcher due to his Vegas data, but he is also pitching in a game with a 51 percent chance of precipitation. Monitor that game via our MLB News feed leading up to lock.
Vegas bettors have continued to short the Brewers over the last couple of weeks; Milwaukee’s 4.2 implied run total is definitely lower than expected given they’re playing in a windy Wrigley Field. That said, it’s not like Jake Arrieta has been good recently, averaging a -4.92 FanDuel Plus/Minus on just 50 percent Consistency over his last eight games:
His Statcast data is even worse: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 237 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 44 percent. We do know that the Cubs are currently -198 favorites, so perhaps that makes him intriguing despite the poor recent results. Per our Trends tool, simply being a favorite that heavy has led to great results:
Again, there are few truly ‘safe’ pitchers in this slate, but Arrieta might be the best bet to pick up a quality start and a win; that has to count for something, right?
Values
CC Sabathia is 36 years old, but he’s likely popping in models for a couple key reasons. First, he’s in a pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay and facing the Rays, who are also a boom-or-bust matchup: They rank eighth this season with a .178 team ISO but also first by a mile with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate. Sabathia isn’t the greatest strikeout guy in the world — he owns a 7.448 SO/9 rate over the past year — but he still has a nice 7.2 K Prediction because the Rays whiff at such a high rate. But again, it’s certainly boom or bust: Nine pitchers with similar K Predictions against the Rays this season have averaged a -8.85 FanDuel Plus/Minus on just 33.3 percent Consistency. That’s brutal, but the number is certainly brought down by a couple terrible games (cough, Francisco Liriano) . . .
Sabathia has upside in tournaments, but he also comes with a 4.4 opponent run implication for a reason.
Adam Wainwright doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside (5.5 K Prediction), but he’s probably the ‘safest’ value play. He’s facing a Giants team currently implied for 3.8 runs, and he has stellar Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 155 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 20 percent, and a hard hit rate of 22 percent. The Giants’ offense has been putrid this season, ranking dead last with a .279 team wOBA. Wainwright is at a pitcher’s park at home in St. Louis and is the third-largest favorite of the day at -164 behind Arrieta and Strasburg. And perhaps the most important stat: He’s quite cheap today at $7,100 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 66 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Jesse Chavez: He’s expensive on DraftKings at $8,400, but he’s more reasonable at $6,900 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 92 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been very solid of late, allowing an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and inducing groundballs at a 50 percent clip over his last two starts. He faces a Mets team currently implied for 4.1 runs.
Danny Salazar: He’s been brutal lately, allowing 10 earned runs and a whopping five home runs over his last two starts. Things won’t get easier today against a talented Houston offense, but he does own the slate’s highest past-year SO/9 rate at 11.825. He should be fairly low-owned given his recent struggles.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On DraftKings, the highest-rated five-man stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs are currently implied to score a slate-high (by 0.8 runs) 5.9 runs, and the wind is currently gusting out in Wrigley Field. They face Brewers righty Chase Anderson, who hasn’t been particularly great lately, allowing 14 runs over his last four starts. His Statcast data is even worse: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 256 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 57 percent, and a hard hit rate of 54 percent. Those marks are bad any time, but they’re especially concerning at a windy Wrigley Field.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man non-Cubs stack currently belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
No, the Rockies are not at home at Coors Field today, but they do face Reds righty Bronson Arroyo, who owns a slate-high HR/9 rate over the past year at 2.409. He got beat up last game, allowing five earned runs and eight hits across five innings. This is a great matchup, and the Rockies could actually go somewhat underowned for a couple reasons. First, the Cubs at a windy Wrigley Field should soak up quite a bit of ownership. Second, there’s currently a 56 percent chance of precipitation at game time in Cincinnati. The Rockies are currently implied for 4.8 runs — the fifth-highest mark in the slate — and there’s a solid chance they won’t have top-five ownership.
Batters
Michael Conforto is batting leadoff (per the MLB Lineups page) for a Mets team currently implied for just 4.1 runs, which means he should be moderately low-owned. And that is intriguing, considering he’s gone for 22-plus FanDuel points in each of his last three games. His Statcast data suggests that is not a fluke: Over his last 13 games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 254 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 61 percent. He’s in a tough park at home, but he still has excellent marks against right-handed pitchers, averaging a .346 wOBA and a .227 ISO over the past year. He is expensive at $4,100 on FanDuel, but he could pay off in GPPs.
Here’s a definition of our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Max Kepler, who is hitting leadoff today for the Twins, has absolutely smashed the ball of late, and yet here’s his fantasy production:
During that time, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 254 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 56 percent, and a hard hit rate of 40 percent. His fortune could turn around soon, and it could be today against Royals righty Jake Junis, who was just called up to start his first major league game. Kepler owns an excellent .211 ISO against righties over the past year, and the Twins are currently implied for a healthy 4.8 runs.
And before we go, here’s a reminder that Chris Davis is against a righty and smashing the ball right now:
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
