The MLB Ownership Review is a regular series (out on Fridays) in which we review in-depth the ownership dynamics of one slate from the previous week.
On Thursday, May 18th, the main slate consisted of just five games headlined by Blue Jays ace Marcus Stroman taking on the Braves. Stroman didn’t have the best matchup on the slate in terms of Vegas data (which we display on our Vegas Dashboard) or weather, but he still cost $11,300 on DraftKings – $2,200 more than the next closest pitcher.
Stroman played well, giving up zero runs and notching six strikeouts in the Blue Jays’ win. Still, he posted the third-highest average ownership among all pitchers on the slate. While Stroman wasn’t exactly faded, he wasn’t overwhelmingly owned on a slate with few top-tier pitching options. Let’s take a look at how the ownership distribution shook out on Thursday.
May 18th Ownership Review
Pitchers
Hyun-jin Ryu and Julio Teheran both posted higher average ownership levels than Stroman on Thursday. The following ownership data is from our DFS Ownership Dashboard (Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of all stakes shortly after lock):
Not only did Ryu and Teheran have higher average ownership than Stroman, but they also had a higher Volatility Rating (which reflects the difference in ownership at various stakes.) Ultimately, Ryu and Teheran scored 12.6 and -13.25 DraftKings points, respectively, and failed to live up to their lofty ownership levels.
While the end result wasn’t what DFS players were looking for, it makes sense why players decided to focus on Ryu and Teheran. Per our Trends tool, both pitchers have historically performed better at home compared to on the road, although this has come with elevated ownership at home. Stroman has also performed better at home since 2014, although this trend has reversed course since the beginning of last season:
Stroman has scored more DraftKings points per game with a higher Plus/Minus, Consistency Rating, and Upside Rating on the road since the beginning of last season. Overall, he’s posted a -1.4 percent ownership differential at home. This is far behind Teheran and Ryu’s +2.0 and +22.0 percent respective ownership differentials.
Danny Duffy finished with the best performance among all pitchers on Thursday, although he was owned in just 2.41 percent of lineups in the $119k Gold Glove. Duffy has historically played well at Kauffman Stadium, but he faced a Yankees lineup that was implied to score 4.5 runs – the third-highest mark on the slate. On a small slate with minimal locks at the pitcher position, sharps chose to fade Duffy against a solid Yankees lineup.
Hitters
Vegas seemed to sway the ownership for hitters in the slate as well. Eight of the top-10 hitters with the highest average ownership played for either the Mariners or Dodgers, who had the top-two implied totals on the slate.
The Athletics and Blue Jays were implied to score 4.0 and 4.1 runs, respectively, but they ended up scoring the most runs on the slate. Jose Bautista was the highest-owned hitter in either game, but his average ownership of 12.67 percent was just the 18th-highest mark among all hitters in Thursday’s slate. Targeting teams with modest implied totals could help build contrarian lineups in small slates without any chalk offensive teams.
Takeaways
Given the small amount of games and limited pitching options, the public focused on pitchers who were at home and hitters with high-implied run totals. Here are some specifics:
- The slate’s highest-priced pitcher was just the third-highest owned pitcher. The top-two pitchers in average ownership have historically played better with heightened ownership at home.
- Pitchers facing the top-three teams in implied runs were largely faded. Rostering pitchers against teams with high-implied totals for the slate (but not necessarily overall) could lead to reduced ownership.
- DFS players across all stakes focused on hitters from the Dodgers and Mariners, who had the top-two implied totals on the slate.
Moving forward, be sure to use the FantasyLabs Tools to monitor the ownership patterns of small slates with minimal high-priced pitching options and few games with potentially high scores.
