The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are five games in the 12:35 pm ET early slate and five games in the 7:35 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
The pickings are slim at the top of today’s salary range; only three pitchers are above $9,000 on FanDuel, and just one of those, Marcus Stroman, is in the main slate.
Jon Lester has had an up-and-down 2017 season, but he’s coming off two solid starts in which he struck out a combined 18 batters across 12.2 innings and allowed just four runs. Today he faces a Reds team that is perhaps better offensively than most people realize: They rank fifth and seventh this season with .184 and .332 team ISO and wOBA marks. Lester can handle a tough matchup, especially when he’s pitching well; over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 183 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 19 percent, and a hard hit rate of 23 percent. He has a lot of things in his favor, but we don’t have a Vegas line for him yet — and it’s likely to be high, as it looks to be yet another windy day in Chicago at Wrigley Field. The past two games have gone for 14 and 12 runs.
Over his last two games (12 innings), Marcus Stroman has allowed just two runs against the Mariners and Indians. Today he has a mediocre matchup against the Braves, but he does carry solid recent Statcast data: Over his last three starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 202 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. Stroman could actually be somewhat low-owned tonight, as his of $11,300 and $9,200 salaries are comparatively high. He’s especially pricey on DraftKings, where he’s $2,200 more expensive than any other pitcher and in possession of a two percent Bargain Rating. His data points are fine — he has the third-highest K Prediction and is tied for the second-lowest opponent run total — but the guys with superior marks are quite cheap today. On that note . . .
Values
Hyun-jin Ryu looks to be the chalk of the main slate, especially on FanDuel, where his incredibly cheap $7,100 salary comes with a slate-high nine Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He faces a poor Marlins teams that ranks 23rd this season with a .308 wOBA; their projected lineup has been even worse against lefties, averaging a .292 wOBA over the past year. They are currently implied for a day-low 3.4 runs. Now, Ryu does have some concerning marks, but let’s look at the context here. In his last game, he gave up five earned runs (10 total) and eight hits across four innings of play. His Statcast data reflects this: In that game, he allowed a batted ball distance of 218 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a line drive rate of 41 percent. All that said, it was against the Rockies at Coors Field. Today’s matchup is much easier, and he owns the day’s highest K Prediction at 7.4. He’s rightfully projected for a slate-high 41-plus percent ownership on both sites.
There are few intriguing value plays in the early slate, but Ervin Santana‘s data sticks out. First, let’s be clear: Santana is almost certainly pitching way over his head this season. Among pitchers with 50-plus innings this season, he easily leads the league with his BABIP:
But let’s put this in context with his recent Statcast data. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 171 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent. Sure, he’s pitching way over his head, and he’s likely gotten lucky on his batted balls, but he’s also holding teams to weak contact. Will he regress? Sure. But it may not be quite as drastic as it seems. (Cut to him allowing three home runs today.) But the good news is that he’s not priced as a stud; he’s priced as if he’s already regressed. At only $7,400 on DraftKings, he comes sports a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
German Marquez: He’s pitching opposite Santana today, and while he hasn’t been as good this year he owns a higher K Prediction at 6.1, and he’s just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Danny Duffy: He has a brutal matchup against a Yankees team that ranks second this season with a .354 team wOBA, but they also own the day’s third-highest SO/AB rate; Duffy’s 7.1 K Prediction is the third-best mark today.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Since the slates are split evenly today, let’s find a five-man DraftKings stack (in the Bales Model) for the early slate and a four-man FanDuel stack for the main one:
The Detroit Tigers currently trail only the Orioles and Rangers in the early slate with an implied total of 5.0 runs (although the Cubs will almost certainly have a higher total once their line is released). With a good-but-not-elite total, they could have low ownership in GPPs. They don’t have a stellar matchup against a bad pitcher or anything; the reason they’re implied for so many runs is because of their hot bats. Among their top-seven batters today (per the MLB Lineups page), literally every one has a batted ball exit velocity of 93-plus miles per hour over the last 15 days.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated stack currently belongs to the Seattle Mariners. We’ll pivot away from them since J.J. Calle wrote about them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, but definitely check that out. Instead, let’s talk about a contrarian stack in the Oakland Athletics:
The A’s don’t have the best offense in the world — they rank 22nd this season with a .313 team wOBA — but they are facing a pitcher making his Major League debut in Red Sox righty Hector Velazquez. He got called up from Triple-A Pawtucket to make the start. He’s been pitching well, posting a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings, but, again, it’s his first start in the Majors. Matthew Joyce leads off this stack, and he’s been crushing the ball of late: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent.
Batters
Phillies righty Nick Pivetta owns the day’s highest HR/9 mark at 3.169, and he also gets the unfortunate task of taking on the Texas Rangers in Arlington. It should be humid and hot — the game time temperature is projected to be 86 degrees — which are both positive indicators for batters. The Rangers are currently implied for a high 5.5 runs, and Nomar Mazara should again be a popular option in all contest formats. He’s on the right side of his splits — he owns an ISO differential of 0.161 — and he has been hitting the ball well lately, averaging a distance of 223 feet and fly ball rate of 44 percent over his last 11 games.
Detroit pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has been . . . not good:
Seth Smith is currently one of the top batters in the FanDuel Bales Model. He’s on the positive side of his splits — he owns a .108 ISO differential — and is projected to lead off for a Baltimore squad currently implied for a massive 5.7 runs. He’s hit the ball well lately, too: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 228 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 38 percent.
Ian Happ‘s price has thankfully come up to $3,000 on FanDuel after being in the low $2,000 range in his first four starts, but he may still be too cheap. He’s hitting cleanup today for the Cubs. As I’m writing this the line for the Cubs has been posted: 6.2 runs at a windy Wrigley Field. Similar batters have done quite well (via the Trends tool):
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
