One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and examine reasons why they are primed for success in this week’s matchups.
Quarterback
Cam Newton – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick actually slightly outpaces Newton this week with a +7.3 Projected Plus/Minus this week, but as Fitzpatrick has already been featured in our Bargain Hunting article for Week 13, we’ll direct you here for a more in depth write-up on his prospects this week.
We’ll have to “settle” for Cam Newton in Fitzpatrick’s place in this column. Newton has pretty much everything you could ask for working in his favor this week. The Saints are allowing a league worst 26.5 DraftKings (DK) points per game, Carolina are heavy favorites with a healthy implied team total (28.5) and Newton has been great all season – his 255.3 DK points are fourth amongst QBs.
As if you needed any other reason to consider him this week, Newton has history on his side as well. In his five previous matchups where he had a Projected Plus/Minus of +4.0 or greater, Newton has averaged 24.44 DK points.
While the Panthers will be on the road this week, Newton’s road/home splits are not overly concerning:
His price has risen over the recent weeks – he is now the second highest priced quarterback on DraftKings – but if anything, it’s more in line with where his production has been this season. Newton’s ceiling – 38.1 DK points, highest of the week – and floor – 12.3, second highest of the week – should keep him in play for cash games or GPPs (though his ownership will likely be very high this week).
Running Back
David Johnson – Projected Plus/Minus: +11.0
The last man standing in the Cardinals’ backfield, Johnson was an early season favorite for many. Finally getting his chance to shine, you’ll be able to employ him at a discount price of $3,400 this week if you so choose. As our ninth-highest projected running back of the week, it’ll be tough to find better value at the position in Week 13.
As we’ve seen over the past two seasons, running backs with a Projected Plus/Minus greater than 10 generally have great success – Charcandrick West’s injury shortened Week 11 notwithstanding.
St. Louis’ run defense has a reputation as being a decently tough matchup, but that has not been the case of late. They now have a positive Opponent Plus/Minus (+0.5) and have given up a ton of production in recent weeks.
We’ve yet to see how Johnson will handle a large workload in the NFL, but needing less than six points to exceed his implied point total this week, the downside is fairly minimal.
Wide Receiver
Danny Amendola – Projected Plus/Minus: +8.2
Assuming Amendola is back as predicted, he’ll be one of Brady’s few remaining options. As he showed us in Week 11, with a healthy workload he’s fully capable of producing in this offense. With his recent injury keeping his price in check, Amendola once again carries a huge Projected Plus/Minus. Recent wide receivers – including Amendola in Week 11 – with a comparable Projected Plus/Minus have shown us that this situation generally indicates a nice game is on its way.
If he’s able to return this week, he’ll be rewarded with a matchup against a struggling Philadelphia defense – sporting a league worst Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.3 this week – that has allowed some big games to comparable wide receivers in recent weeks. Cole Beasley (35.2 DK points), Jarvis Landry (18.8 DK points) and Golden Tate (18.0 DK points) all spend plenty of time in the slot like Amendola and have torched this Eagle’s defense over the past few weeks. As long as Amendola is near full strength, there’s no reason to assume he won’t exceed his implied point total of 10.17.
Tight End
Scott Chandler – Projected Plus/Minus: +8.8
Similar to Amendola, Chandler will be stepping in for an injured Patriot this week. With his minimum price and the recent performance of tight ends with comparable Projected Plus/Minus totals, he certainly makes for an intriguing play this week.
Tight ends with a Projected Plus/Minus of six or greater have shown great success in exceeding value over the past two years. The concern with Chandler is the matchup. For as badly as the Philadelphia secondary has handled the wide receiver position, they’ve actually been extremely stout versus tight ends. The Eagles have allowed only two receiving touchdowns to tight ends all year on their way to ranking fourth in DK points allowed to the position.
With New England’s high implied point total (29.75) and propensity for utilizing the tight end near the goal line, Chandler does have decent upside. He’s certainly in play this week, especially if you’re looking to roster a top tier quarterback such as Newton and need the savings. Just be aware that the matchup could prove tough.
