This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Lance McCullers: Pitcher, Astros
With Clayton Kershaw at Coors Field, there are zero pitchers on FanDuel priced above $10,000 in the main slate. One of the top pitchers in our Player Models, McCullers at $8,800 has the highest K prediction at 7.7 and a low opponent implied run total of 3.8 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). McCullers’ advanced stats are positive with a recent batted ball distance of 181 feet, ground ball rate of 64 percent, exit velocity of 86 mph, and hard hit rate of 19 percent. Pitchers with comparable numbers in all four Statcast categories have historically provided solid value on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
The projected Yankees lineup has a meager 30 percent hard hit rate, and slightly favored ground ball pitchers facing comparably weak opponent hard hit rates have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.01 and 67.2 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel.
Jayson Werth: Outfielder, Nationals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Nationals, who have several strong potential stacks built around their No. 2 hitter:
The Nationals are fourth in the slate with an implied total of 4.9 runs — just outside the top tier led by the Dodgers (5.7) at Coors Field. Coors and Chase Field will likely dominate ownership in guaranteed prize pools, which makes a team like the Nationals an intriguing pivot. At likely reduced ownership — especially because of weather concerns — Werth carries upside with a recent batted ball distance of 228 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard hit rate of 42 percent. Phillies pitcher Nick Pivetta has also been getting rocked lately with a recent batted ball distance of 246 feet and hard hit rate of 51 percent. See Justin Bailey’s MLB Pro Model Stacks piece for more on the Nationals.
Cody Bellinger: First Base, Dodgers
Each slate is different, but sharp high-stakes tournament players used Bellinger as their top batting option last night (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Expected to hit cleanup at Coors, Bellinger has strong Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 42 percent. Batters with comparable implied totals, Statcast data, and lineup spots have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.28 on DraftKings. If Coors Field is added to the previous trend, the Plus/Minus jumps to +2.16. Bellinger also owns a slate-high .488 wOBA and .500 ISO against right-handed pitchers and is facing Rockies righty Tyler Chatwood. Advantage, Bellinger.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
